2024 Presidential Election

[WuDrWu]

UPDATES:

AK1 REP Nick Begich leads by about 10K with 76% counted.

AZ6 REP Juan Ciscomani has surged into the lead by about 1800 votes with 76% counted.

CA6 was in fact called for the DEM Ami Bera.

CA9 DEM Harder has opened a little lead by 4K with 64% of the vote in.

CA13 REP Duarte maintains a 3K lead with 62% of the vote in.

CA21 DEM Jim Costa lead is down to 1300 with 62% of the vote in. Probably the strangest result left. This was not expected to be close.

CA27 REP Mike Garcia has seen his lead dwindle to less than 1000 with 77% of the vote counted. He's in deep water here.

CA39 DEM Mark Takano still leads by 12K+ and I don't know why it's not been called yet. There are still 41% of the votes out.

CA41 REP Ken Calvert leads by 7K votes with 57% of the vote in.

CA45 REP Michelle Steele leads by 7K+ with 76% counted. Could be called soon.

CA47 DEM Dave Lin has crept into the lead by less than 1K with about 20% remaining to count.

CA49 DEM Mike Levine leads by 10K with 20% left to count. Not sure why this hasn't been called but expecting it to be today.

CO8 REP Gabe Evans has taken a 2400 vote lead with 15% remaining. This is awesome.

OR5 DEM Janelle Bynum is about to win up 9500 with just over 10% left to count.

WA3 DEM Marie Gluesenkamp Perez will be declared the winner soon as she leads by 15K+ with just 8% remaining.


GOP still needs 2 seats and while it's looking good, it's certainly not a lock and there's quite a bit more teeth gnashing going on than yesterday for me.

I'll try to make this quick (2020 numbers in parenthesis)


President

Trump 74,687,000 (74,224,000) Trump has surpassed his total from 2020. He'll still win the popular vote, but the distance is closing and with several million votes to be counted, a plurality of which will be Democratic voters that difference could shrink by perhaps half of what it is now.

Harris 70,965,000 (81,284,000) Harris will be within 10 million of Biden soon. Probably finish 5-8 million behind when all said and done).



Arizona Senate. D-Ruben Gallego's lead has expanded and it doesn't appear to me that there are enough Lake heavy areas to claw back a 45k deficit. It hasn't been called yet, but I expect and am calling this for the Dems. The GOP Senate majority will sit at 53 for now. Vance likely to be replaced by a Rino early next year before an election is held.

House Seats:

There are opinions everywhere. I'm sticking with my numbers above and making calls where I believe it's over. If anything changes from that, I'll notate later, but I doubt there will be changes.

Calls:

WA3 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez now leads by 16K with 5% left. This is over. DEMS win.

OR5 Janelle Bynum leads by 10K. DEMS win and this is a flip.

CA6 As previously mentioned was called for the DEMS.


That makes it 216-207. 12 races left.


AK1 REP Nick Begich leads by about 9K with 100K left to count.

AZ6 REP Juan Ciscomani leads by 2400 with 20% left to count.

CA9 DEM Harder has opened a little lead by 4K with 64% of the vote in. No updates in California. Apparently they are taking the weekend off. Too much work.

CA13 REP Duarte maintains a 3K lead with 62% of the vote in.

CA21 DEM Jim Costa lead is down to 1300 with 62% of the vote in. Probably the strangest result left. This was not expected to be close.

CA27 REP Mike Garcia has seen his lead dwindle to less than 1000 with 77% of the vote counted. He's in deep water here.

CA39 DEM Mark Takano still leads by 12K+ and I don't know why it's not been called yet. There are still 41% of the votes out.

CA41 REP Ken Calvert leads by 7K votes with 57% of the vote in.

CA45 REP Michelle Steele leads by 7K+ with 76% counted. Could be called soon.

CA47 DEM Dave Lin has crept into the lead by less than 1K with about 20% remaining to count.

CA49 DEM Mike Levine leads by 10K with 20% left to count. Not sure why this hasn't been called but expecting it to be today.

CO8 REP Gabe Evans has taken a 2600 vote lead with maybe 11k votes to count.

[ShockerDropOut]

What the heck is wrong with CA? How can a state be so inept accounting votes? I'm not talking about anything to do with outcomes, just the apparent incompetence of those in charge of counting votes. They should be ashamed of themselves for this. 5 days after the election is over and only 60-70% counted in places? That Is incompetence on a massive level.

[Kel Varnsen]

What the heck is wrong with CA? How can a state be so inept accounting votes? I'm not talking about anything to do with outcomes, just the apparent incompetence of those in charge of counting votes. They should be ashamed of themselves for this. 5 days after the election is over and only 60-70% counted in places? That Is incompetence on a massive level.

I don't think it's incompetence.

[WuDrWu]

I'll try to make this quick (2020 numbers in parenthesis)


President

Trump 74,687,000 (74,224,000) Trump has surpassed his total from 2020. He'll still win the popular vote, but the distance is closing and with several million votes to be counted, a plurality of which will be Democratic voters that difference could shrink by perhaps half of what it is now.

Harris 70,965,000 (81,284,000) Harris will be within 10 million of Biden soon. Probably finish 5-8 million behind when all said and done).



Arizona Senate. D-Ruben Gallego's lead has expanded and it doesn't appear to me that there are enough Lake heavy areas to claw back a 45k deficit. It hasn't been called yet, but I expect and am calling this for the Dems. The GOP Senate majority will sit at 53 for now. Vance likely to be replaced by a Rino early next year before an election is held.

House Seats:

There are opinions everywhere. I'm sticking with my numbers above and making calls where I believe it's over. If anything changes from that, I'll notate later, but I doubt there will be changes.

Calls:

WA3 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez now leads by 16K with 5% left. This is over. DEMS win.

OR5 Janelle Bynum leads by 10K. DEMS win and this is a flip.

CA6 As previously mentioned was called for the DEMS.


That makes it 216-207. 12 races left.


AK1 REP Nick Begich leads by about 9K with 100K left to count.

AZ6 REP Juan Ciscomani leads by 2400 with 20% left to count.

CA9 DEM Harder has opened a little lead by 4K with 64% of the vote in. No updates in California. Apparently they are taking the weekend off. Too much work.

CA13 REP Duarte maintains a 3K lead with 62% of the vote in.

CA21 DEM Jim Costa lead is down to 1300 with 62% of the vote in. Probably the strangest result left. This was not expected to be close.

CA27 REP Mike Garcia has seen his lead dwindle to less than 1000 with 77% of the vote counted. He's in deep water here.

CA39 DEM Mark Takano still leads by 12K+ and I don't know why it's not been called yet. There are still 41% of the votes out.

CA41 REP Ken Calvert leads by 7K votes with 57% of the vote in.

CA45 REP Michelle Steele leads by 7K+ with 76% counted. Could be called soon.

CA47 DEM Dave Lin has crept into the lead by less than 1K with about 20% remaining to count.

CA49 DEM Mike Levine leads by 10K with 20% left to count. Not sure why this hasn't been called but expecting it to be today.

CO8 REP Gabe Evans has taken a 2600 vote lead with maybe 11k votes to count.

Interesting updates from the NBC site where I've been getting my totals. Trump lost votes over the weekend.

Trump 74,675,000 (down 12,000 from my last update)

Harris 71,147,000 (up 182,000. This trend continues and Harris might win the popular vote)



In the House, one meaningful update is that CO8 has been called for Republican Gabe Evans. This is an example of gerrymandering coming back and biting you in the ass. Colorado Dems tried to redistrict Boebert out of her seat, she moved to CO4 where a mango would be more likely to be sent to DC than a DEM (and even Boebert won) and now the GOP hold half the 8 Colorado House seats. You still have the Denver/Boulder area hitting the bong 100 times a day, and that's where most of the population is, but it's nice to see this backlash.

That leaves the GOP at +2 right now. As shock has said with his local knowledge, AK1 is very, very likely to give the GOP the one seat they need to keep the House. At this point, every race is huge. Hopefully we can pick off 3 or 4 of these undecided CA races when they finally get them counted in December.

217-207 with 11 races yet to be decided.

My list of 5 most likely GOP wins left:

CA41 Ken Calvert's name probably carries him one more term.
AK 1 Nick Bevich returns the seat to whence it belongs
AZ 6 Juan Ciscomani has represented his constituency well and the votes remaining appear to be in his favor.
CA45 Michelle Steele is in an area where she should win, and her lead is sizable this late.
It gets real dicey after those 4. I will be disappointed if we can't win at least these 4.
CA13 John Duarte should be winning re-election here. It's razor thin right now though.

[ShockerPrez]

Thank God Trump won. Lets be honest, the meme's and Tik Tok's that the Left would have made gloating would have been so lame and cringe.

Instead, we have hours and hours in the can to enjoy now and will continue to enjoy for a good while.

Thank you, Donald, and thank you Dems for nominating such horrible candidates who deserve every bit of mocking.

[1972Shocker]

BREAKING: Republicans Control the U.S. House

With the race in AZ-6 being called for incumbent Rep. Juan Ciscomani, the Republican party will maintain control of the U.S. House.

Eight races are left to call - seven in California and one in Alaska. The Alaska race call is delayed due to their ranked choice voting format, and in California mail ballots are still being received through Tuesday.

The Alaska ranked choice repeal ballot measure is not yet settled and could go either way but I don't think it would apply to this election in any case. The No to Repeal camp raised $14 million, much of it from out of state. The Yes to Repeal camp raised $150,000. Would be interesting to know the source of those funds.

Currently that Alaska race stands as follows with an estimate of 74% reporting:
Nick Bekich - R.............125,222 (49.6%)
Mary Peltola* - D..........115,089 (45.6%)
John Howe - AIP...............9,880 (3.9%)
Eric Hafter - D...................2,492 (0.9%)

* Incumbent

AIP = Alaska Independence Party: Seems to have a conservative bent so you would think they would lean Beckich as their #2 choice. Perhaps our Alaska board members can weigh in on that.

It would be nice to pick off 2 or 3 more.

[WuDrWu]

So weird.....every time it seems I'm checking MSDNC or the mothership they seem to only announce the DEM pickups or calls. No mention that I've seen of CO or AZ today....but damn it, they had BREAKING NEWS on Larry's show tonight that the DEMs flipped CA29.

I have 218-208 with 9 races left.

Interesting though that Trump has selected 2 GOP Reps Stefanik and Walz. I assume DeSantis will replace Walz but what about Stefanik? If I understand it correctly, within 10 days of Stefanik stepping down, the Gov of NY has to announce a special election in an 80 window so no more than 3 months from Stefanik stepping down. I feared Hochul had the power to just fill the spot but that appears to not be the case. NY21 is pretty much as red as red gets in NY. Elise won re-election by about 80K or a 25% spread so replacing her shouldn't be a big problem IF the GOP do their job.

Still, the GOP need EVERY vote in the House. You know DEMs are nothing more than lemmings and will follow Hakeem off any cliff. When the clock is ticking (and history says it will be a 2 year window in all likelihood) you don't need a 4 month time out to start. Get r dun fast.

[Shockm]

I saw this on NewsNation last night. Cuomo interviewed Allan Lichtman who wrongly predicted (1 day or 2) that Harris would win the election b/c of his 13 keys that always have correctly predicted past President Elections.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/historian-blames-disinformation-from-fox-news-and-elon-musk-after-election-prediction-goes-horribly-wrong/ar-AA1tUZJ8

He blamed being wrong on dis formation and lies by Fox News, Elon Musk and X, lies regarding FEMA’s lack of Hurricane response, etc. There was very little pushback by Cuomo who called Lichtman. Friend.

https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/2024-election/allan-lichtman-explains-why-he-didnt-predict-donald-trumps-win/

[WuDrWu]

11/12/24 Morning Update

Trump 75,008,000

Harris 71,809,000



If you throw out the vote difference in just NY and CA (which let's be honest, is mostly confined to NYC and LA & SF) then Trump's lead swells from about 3.2 million to almost 7 million.


House Update:


AZ6 called for REP Juan Ciscomani

CA 27 was called for DEM George Whitesides last night. Seemingly almost all the votes over the weekend came in for him. Just saying.

CA39 was called for DEM Mark Takano.

CA49 I'm calling for DEM Mike Levine. His lead has climbed to 15K with only 15% to count.



218-210 with 7 races left to be called.


AK1 REP Nick Begich leads by about 9K with 100K left to count. I get Alaska has it's own unique challenges when it comes to voting. But come on.

CA9 DEM Harder has opened up a 7K lead with 71% of the vote in. This is likely to be called soon.

CA13 REP Duarte has barely changed if at all. Now with 57% of the vote in. The only update I can find is that instead of 62% of the vote in, now it's just 57%. Read into that what you will, but I'd bet just about anything this race is going to turn late for the DEMs. Want the other side?

CA21 DEM Jim Costa lead is down to 1300 now with 64% of the vote in. Probably the strangest result left. This was not expected to be close. 2% count update since Friday. Unacceptable.

CA41 REP Ken Calvert leads by 7500 votes with 81% of the vote in.

CA45 REP Michelle Steele leads by 3900 with 84% counted. Very dicey trend. It's weird how all these late CA districts seem to be trending one direction.

CA47 DEM Dave Lin leads by 3200 with 84% of the vote counted.


Still wishing for 3 or 4 more GOP seats but trending to just 1 or 2. Fingers crossed.

[Shockm]

There was ZERO, to very little pushback from Cuomo on Lichtman on his dis-information claims. Cuomo, several times referred to Lichtman as a friend, and I guess, Fox News is a competitor of NewsNation, so maybe it assists NewsNation to call Fox names, b/c NewsNation does claim to be News for all Americans.

[ShockerPrez]

So, Harris spent $1.3 billion and over $500m was for paying staff.

What a racket.

[WuShock Reaper]

[SubGod22]

That guy is a nut job.

The entire thread is insane. This man is unhinged and even called Biden an old white racist republican.

How this man is allowed to teach is a little frightening.

[asiseeit]

I hope Trump follows through asap with getting rid of the Federal Dept of Education and allows their funding to flow down to the state level / control. Hope the teachers union can be purged of politically motivated teachers and get back to basics.

[ShockTalk]

Should we wait to hear this fruitcake has been fired? NO!

It's California.

I hope they surprise me.