Can Cain win?

[Kung Wu]

There will so much money spent, it won't matter.

I wish I can come up with an analogy.

If Obama has 1 million commericals and Romney/GOP nominee only has 250,000 commericals that you see, it won't matter. It will beyond saturation for both candidates.

Obama had a ton more money than McCain, but does anyone really think that is why he won? Everyone knew McCain and where he was on the issues.

I once read or someone told me that if Obama decides not to run he would walk away and get to keep a very large percent of those donations personally causing some to speculate he would withdraw after raising huge sums. Complete poppycock?

[SB Shock]

Bush is the only President since Gallup started that was re-elected with less than a 50% approval rating and he was 48%.

Approval ratings of passed presidents at reelection

Winners
George W. Bush (9/10/03) 52%
Bill Clinton (9/17/95) 44%
Ronald Reagan (9/12/83) 47%
Richard Nixon (10/11/71) 52%
Dwight Eisenhower (9/20/55) 71%
Harry Truman (9/17/47) 55%

Losers

George H. W. Bush (9/15/91) 68%
Jimmy Carter (9/10/79) 30%
Gerald Ford (9/15/75) 45%

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Latest-News-Wires/2011/0919/What-history-says-about-President-Obama-s-approval-rating-now

Obama has hovered b/t the high 30s and low 40s.

Obama has never been in the low 30's (unless you are cherry picking). His lowest has been 42%, and as of few months ago he had spiked above 50% (with Bin Ladin death)

The base will turn out in droves on election day to vote against Obama. They essentially did that last November 2010 and Obama wasn't even on the ballot. It will happen again and more so November 2012.

I am not a Romney suporrter in any sense of the word. I have significant differences wtih him on cap and trade, health care and several other issues.

I'm not a Cain or Romney supporter. Neither one really excites me.

He just might be the GOP 2012 version of Clinton in 1992. I recall the Democrats weren't excited about him during the nomination process, but once nominated, it didn't matter. The GOP and Bush were the enemies.

Could be. Or not. The whole dynamics out there is changing with tea party, 99%, etc. Recent election results have been defying conventional wisdom.

[Kung Wu]

However, at this point I still consider Obama as the favorite. Remember Carter's poll numbers didn't tank until late in the election cycle.

P.S. The "base" will turn out; however, self described "independents" hold the keys to the kingdom.

Two thoughts here.

1) You are declaring Obama the front runner, but in the next sentence invoking Carter. If America is comparing him to Carter (and I agree they are) -- then he is not the lead by any stretch.

2) I disagree that the "base" will show up. He has badly fragmented the Jewish vote. I believe up to 40% of the Jewish vote will NOT show up. I also believe the raw numbers of black voters will be much diminshed (though maintaining the same percent). I think a decent chunk of white Democrats will also not vote this go around. His base has eroded badly.

[Maggie]

However, at this point I still consider Obama as the favorite. Remember Carter's poll numbers didn't tank until late in the election cycle.

P.S. The "base" will turn out; however, self described "independents" hold the keys to the kingdom.

Two thoughts here.

1) You are declaring Obama the front runner, but in the next sentence invoking Carter. If America is comparing him to Carter (and I agree they are) -- then he is not the lead by any stretch.

2) I disagree that the "base" will show up. He has badly fragmented the Jewish vote. I believe up to 40% of the Jewish vote will NOT show up. I also believe the raw numbers of black voters will be much diminshed (though maintaining the same percent). I think a decent chunk of white Democrats will also not vote this go around. His base has eroded badly.

I consider Obama the favorite because he is the incumbent, which of course, has many advantages. He also has the MSM in his back pocket. I mentioned Carter because people tend to forget that in 1979 Carter and Reagan were neck and neck for most of the race. A Reagan blow out was not pre-ordained. People just don’t want to “give up” on a sitting President and that is, in part, why Obama is polling relatively well considering the state of the nation. The GOP should not underestimate Obama.

As far as the base goes, I was responding to a post by ABC in which he indicated that the conservative base will enthusiastically show up at the polls next year. So I was writing about the GOP base of support – but an enthusiastic base is not enough to win both sides need independents.

[WSU Cowboy]

I thought this was WSU Sports Forum not a political one.

[Kung Wu]

I consider Obama the favorite because he is the incumbent, which of course, has many advantages. He also has the MSM in his back pocket. I mentioned Carter because people tend to forget that in 1979 Carter and Reagan were neck and neck for most of the race. A Reagan blow out was not pre-ordained. People just don’t want to “give up” on a sitting President and that is, in part, why Obama is polling relatively well considering the state of the nation. The GOP should not underestimate Obama.

As far as the base goes, I was responding to a post by ABC in which he indicated that the conservative base will enthusiastically show up at the polls next year. So I was writing about the GOP base of support – but an enthusiastic base is not enough to win both sides need independents.

Ahhh. I agree then. Yes, the GOP better not underestimate the incumbent. And I thought you were referring to Obama's base. I think he may have eroded a decent portion of it, but depending on -where- the base has eroded that may not matter too much.

[Kung Wu]

I thought this was WSU Sports Forum not a political one.

Click on FORUM instead of WHAT'S NEW, then you will only see the forums you are interested in.

[Maggie]

Ahhh. I agree then. Yes, the GOP better not underestimate the incumbent. And I thought you were referring to Obama's base. I think he may have eroded a decent portion of it, but depending on -where- the base has eroded that may not matter too much.

Obama does have problems – his base is unhappy with him (but for reasons, in my judgment, that won’t help him) and he needs to energize them. That is what he is attempting to do now but by doing so he is further alienating independent voters. If I were advising him, I would tell him to move to the center because the progressive base will, for the most part, stay with him anyway. He has a fine line to walk right now.

As for the Jewish vote – that is a bit of a mystery to me. I have never understood why most Jews vote Democratic. Notwithstanding, don’t put too much stock in the election results of NY-9 in terms of Obama’s support as it relates to Jews - Orthodox Jewish leaders hold major sway in Brooklyn and Queens and these are not the type of Jews you will encounter in Wichita. The “orthodox” varies a bit (and I could elaborate more) – but one constant is that they are much more socially conservative and much more supportive of Israel than the average Jew. But I don’t believe the ardent believers are the majority in most communities (remember in NY there are clusters) – so they may have little impact statewide.

[shoxlax]

This next debate should be interesting.

[kcshocker11]

Herman Cain's 9-9-9 tax plan would raise taxes on 84 percent of U.S. households, according to an independent analysis released Tuesday, contradicting claims by the Republican presidential candidate that most Americans would see a tax cut.
The Tax Policy Center, a Washington think tank, says low- and middle-income families would be hit hardest, with households making between $10,000 and $20,000 seeing their taxes increase by nearly 950 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/study-cain-tax-plan-raises-taxes-84-percent-205614885.html

:disturbed::grief:

[SB Shock]

Since majority of Americans pay little or no taxes it is logical to expect their taxes will need to increase if you are goingoing to pay for all the entitlement programs.

[kcshocker11]

Sorry Sub, no time to argue but Im a tax accountant- your wrong!

[SubGod22]

Sorry Sub, no time to argue but Im a tax accountant- your wrong!

Huh? I haven't said anything one way or another on anything in this thread.

[SB Shock]

Sorry Sub, no time to argue but Im a tax accountant- your wrong!

Maybe kc is your wife?

[Kung Wu]

Maybe kc is your wife?

Hahaha! That's hilarious!