Justice Kennedy Retiring

[Kel Varnsen]

Put 30 hours on the clock. I think it's time for predictions:

Murkowski - no on cloture seems like she's a no on Kavanaugh. I'd say she feels like she can vote no because she knows they've got the votes to get him through.
Collins - I think she's going to be announcing early this afternoon that she's a yes.
Manchin - I think he'll probably side with whoever he thinks is going to win. So I'll say he's a yes.
Flake - He'll be a yes.

As one other wrinkle, I've seen stuff saying Daines out of Montana won't be around tomorrow because of his daughter's wedding. Unless they hustle up the vote tonight or early in the morning tomorrow, I guess that means he couldn't vote tomorrow? And I can't imagine Manchin would be willing to be the deciding vote in favor of Kavanaugh. So I imagine they must be finding a way for him to vote. If he does, I think it's going to pass with 51 votes.

Probably a fair assessment of where things stand at the moment.

[pinstripers]

Manchin risks his seat with a no.

[1972Shocker]

Politically the Republicans would probably be better off if Kavanaugh was not confirmed. At least with respect to the upcoming mid-term elections.

[ShockCrazy]

1000% confirmation will be bad news for the midterms and vice versa is true for Dems and rejection. These types of decisions do faaaaaaaar more to motivate opposition to whatever action is taken than it does to motivate supporters.

[C0|dB|00ded]

That's not what every Republican talking head has said from day one. They all said that if Kavanaugh doesn't get confirmed it will be a disaster for midterm turnout. It goes against common sense but that's what they say. "A Kavanaugh confirmation will energize the base before the elections."


T


...:cool:

[ShockerPrez]

I think if BK goes down, it will be very bad for Dems in November.

I think he will get confirmed though Pence may decide it.

[ShockCrazy]

Those who think Manchin being a no is bad for him I think have a very wrong take. He can be yes if he'll pass regardless but if he is the decider he will be in massive trouble. His staff and volunteers, the people who will get him re-elected aren't going to be very motivated and I expect he would face many issues. People often forget re-election depends on the people in the campaign.

[SHOCKvalue]

I would assume the people associated with Manchin are well-aware of who he is - an old school, southern, blue collar man’s dem. They already know he is more of a centrist.

Dems should be no more at shock to see him cross party lines, than repubs are to see one of their wish-washy types vote no.

[shockfan89_]

Murkowski needs to be expelled from the Senate this afternoon. What possible reason can she have for voting no? This entire delay was to make her feel comfortable. Send her back to Alaska and let them try again!

[SHOCKvalue]

Politics in Alaska aren’t like the lower 48. Very strong libertarian, “get off my (tundra) lawn”, screw the federal govt, types up there.

[C0|dB|00ded]

She's is controlled by the natives and they are deathly afraid of losing 'Bum Care. I guess they're all bums?


T


...:cool:

[Kung Wu]

Taking a step back: if even one of Swetnick's, Ramirez's, or Blasey-Ford's allegations had been known prior to the nomination of Kavanaugh, there's zero percent chance he's selected. None.

Agreed. Because that would have made the claims at least mildly credible. Instead, the leftists showed their hand before a nominee was selected by stating "We are going to boycott/protest/block [fill in the name]" before a nominee was even chosen. They showed their hand WAY too early for obnoxious claims like those that came forward AFTER a person was chosen to be credible (sans at least a modicum of evidence).

And so now we are here: The GOP is firmly behind their guy because a) the claims are either not credible or irrelevant, and because b) the Dems showed their cards too early and now that the GOP knows the Dems are bluffing -- RAISE.

[Kung Wu]

Ford made her allegation known after Kavanaugh was put on the list.

[jdshock]

Oh... well, yeah. I said "prior to the nomination." She saw his name on the list and then decided to go to someone and say "hey, don't pick this guy."

So do you disagree with the idea that if she had made the allegations publicly known "prior to the nomination" but after he was put on the list, they would've gone with someone other than Kavanaugh?

[Kung Wu]

Not really, no. If she had come out before he was added to Heritage's list, absolutely I would agree. After that but before Trump's list? I dont think it would have been automatic but much more likely he would not have been selected, based on the optics.

[ShockCrazy]

Murkowski needs to be expelled from the Senate this afternoon. What possible reason can she have for voting no? This entire delay was to make her feel comfortable. Send her back to Alaska and let them try again!

Uh how about the people who elected her telling her no? The Alaska native organizations who ARE the reason she's in the Senate have come out and said she better vote no(based on Kavanaugh's rulings/writings related to native Hawaiians and Alaskans). The native organizations are the ones who elected her as a freaking write in candidate when the GOP bailed in 2010. So yeah... She's got every reason to be no. Please inform yourself before stupidly lashing out.

[shockfan89_]

ShockCrazy - You are totally missing what I am saying. This has NOTHING to do with her representing Alaska at this point. The Democrat's actions have made this a purely partisan approval process. Murkowski is acting dumb like you, and hiding behind the same things you are stating. My point is she is playing go-fish while everyone is playing poker. Realize what is going on, what is at stake, and play by the rules the Democrat's decided to play by.

I totally agree with you this is a stupid way to conduct business. That's what happens when Democrats play this way. I am saying you can't ever give in to this childish behavior from the Democrats or this will become the norm. The Democrats need to lose this nominee, and lose big in November so this crap doesn't happen again, by EITHER party.

[ShockCrazy]

Or you want ignore the fact that there are cases related to native rights that could be brought before the Supreme Court and that would HURT her constituents. Anything beyond that is silly speculation that you are using to just feel good about being a hoorah GOP guy for "not playing the Dems games." You don't get to decide this is bigger than who she represents, she does. That's why she was elected. If the GOP was concerned with her vote there are bunches of options who don't have statements on the record Kavanaugh does. But this wasn't a GOP nomination. It was a Trump nom, McConnell didn't want it.

[SHOCKvalue]

Looks like Alaska natives represent only 15% of the Alaska population, so I’m guessing they have about as much sway on the state level as say Hispanics in a state like Kansas, which is to say not a ton.

[jdshock]

Put 30 hours on the clock. I think it's time for predictions:

Murkowski - no on cloture seems like she's a no on Kavanaugh. I'd say she feels like she can vote no because she knows they've got the votes to get him through.
Collins - I think she's going to be announcing early this afternoon that she's a yes.
Manchin - I think he'll probably side with whoever he thinks is going to win. So I'll say he's a yes.
Flake - He'll be a yes.

As one other wrinkle, I've seen stuff saying Daines out of Montana won't be around tomorrow because of his daughter's wedding. Unless they hustle up the vote tonight or early in the morning tomorrow, I guess that means he couldn't vote tomorrow? And I can't imagine Manchin would be willing to be the deciding vote in favor of Kavanaugh. So I imagine they must be finding a way for him to vote. If he does, I think it's going to pass with 51 votes.

As an update just an hour later:

It looks like Murkowski is a definite no and Flake is a definite yes. If Collins is a no, I can't imagine a scenario where Manchin is a yes. That would really be incredible. If Collins is a yes this afternoon, I think they have to engineer a set-up that allows Daines to vote because I also just cannot imagine Manchin being the 50th vote. I think he'd be 51, but not 50.

[pinstripers]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=egTyaIAaqz8

[SHOCKvalue]

If Collins is going to vote no, then she’s going to have to do a 180 here on her remarks thus far. Sounds all-in on Kava-yes.

Means unless someone has a massive change of heart in the next 24 hours he’s a go.

[C0|dB|00ded]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...thwarting.html

Matalin said women behaving like anarchists is not the definition of "successful feminism." Feminists should start with Brett Kavanaugh's wife Ashley if they want to stand up for women, Matalin said. She also said that men are behaving like sissies and it will affect generations to come. Matalin also warned that the feminists of today "want to castrate men, emasculate men."

"This is not civil discourse. It's anarchy and it is the destruction of the culture," she said of the loyal opposition.

"We're sissifying men," she said. "In my day of feminism, there's always been like a virulent strain of 'a woman needs a man like a fish needs a bike.' So we've gone from not needing men, today's feminists want to castrate men, emasculate men."

Matalin also praised President Trump and said what he has got done is "nothing short of a miracle," especially given the attacks he and his people have taken.

I wish this lady was the face of the women's movement. She could infuse a much needed dose of common sense, perspective, and accountability.


T


...:cool:

[C0|dB|00ded]

Collins is an official YES!


T


...:cool:

[jdshock]

If Collins is going to vote no, then she’s going to have to do a 180 here on her remarks thus far. Sounds all-in on Kava-yes.

Means unless someone has a massive change of heart in the next 24 hours he’s a go.

Yep. The only real question at this point is Manchin and whether they will time the vote to allow the Montana senator to vote. It seems likely to me that they would time it so the Montana guy can vote, then Manchin can vote yes without being the deciding 50th vote, and getting even one Democrat vote would presumably add to the perception of credibility here.

[1972Shocker]

Quite an impressive, intelligent and civil speech by Senator Collins on the Kavanaugh nomination. Not overly passionate but certainly a very objective presentation that shows she has taken her job seriously. Kudos to her.

[pinstripers]

It was amazing, really