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According to the NYT, there is no corroboration of any alleged instances against SCOTUS to be BK.
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Livin the dream -
So a frat boy ALLEGEDLY waggin' his weeny in college is an immediate "no" to SCOTUS. But Obama can ADMITTEDLY snort the crap out of cocaine in college, and that's no problem for the POTUS position -- because it happened in college?
Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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Can someone please explain the distinction here, to a -ahem- "low-information" voter? November's right around the corner.Comment
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Kavanaugh interview on Fox was a major mistake. He looked guilty as sin and his "wife" acted like an escort he'd met just prior to walking on the set. He was wooden, scripted, emotionless... The host was begging him to let her help out with softball after softball. He responded as if the lights were on but nobody was home. Almost sociopathic. Now I know why they had been keeping him away from the media. He's either autistic or guilty as hell.
I wanted to see Clarence Thomas tonight. Full of piss and vinegar for anybody daring to smear his name. Whipped puppy more like.
NEXT!
T
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I agree, but the fact remains there is not one shred of evidence that he did it. I don't care how unpolished he is in an interview. Bill Clinton was very polished, but he was guilty as charged.
The hearing is going to be a farce. She is going to get up there and act like a victim and cry and be believable (because she very well may have been assaulted, and believes she was), and he will get up there and be stoic and scripted, and appear guilty. There will still be zero evidence this party actually occurred or he was even at the party. In fact, every single person identified by the accuser (both Kavanaugh's friends and her friends) deny the party even took place! What will this hearing accomplish? It is a PR stunt, not a legal proceeding, and not a judicial nominee hearing.
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At this point, I'd say there's about a 50/50 shot Kavanaugh gets confirmed. It seems to be a lose-lose situation for Republicans, though, unless Kavanaugh withdraws his own name. Option 1: They confirm him. If they've got the votes, this might be the best overall situation for them. My suspicion would be that this harms Republicans in midterms and hurts Trump's overall approval rating, but in reality it's mostly just people who already were opposed to him. Option 2: They put it to a vote, and he fails. Trump withdraws him. This is definitely a bad look and makes Trump look weak. This might be the worst overall option. Option 3: Trump pulls him before letting it get to a vote. Again, this makes Trump look weak, but certainly not as bad as option 2. Option 4: Kavanaugh pulls his own name. Allows the GOP to pin all the blame on democrats for screwing up the process and they basically can ram whoever they want through.
The question, though, is whether this happens pre-election. If Kavanaugh were to pull his name this week, I'd think Republicans would definitely argue there's plenty of time before the election, and I think they'd probably get it done. But, let's assume Kavanaugh doesn't get confirmed, they haven't confirmed someone else pre-election, and then Democrats take the Senate. Dems taking the Senate is probably only like a 25% chance, in my opinion. Add that to the chance that Kavanaugh isn't confirmed, and no one else has been confirmed pre-election, and we're talking about a pretty slim possibility here.
But, assuming such a scenario, I assume we can expect EVERYONE who supported denying Merrick Garland a chance for a hearing would also be 100% opposed to the lame duck Senate confirming someone, right?Comment
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If they don’t have the votes, there will never be a vote.
As far as lame duck - all depends if the democrats win the senate or not. If they do, then the Supreme Court will remain at 8 until next presidential election (they have already signaled this).
If not, then Trump will nominate somebody even more conservative on abortion and will get him or her confirmed. -
I have it at 50/50 that Ford shows up on Thursday. I am thinking more 80/20 that he gets confirmed.
The the way McConnell has gone from being silent and letting the process work it way through to how he is talking now makes me think he knows he has the votes unless something unexpected happens.
I am sensing that people are seeing these as baseless claims. No ideas of times/places. Everyone denying the claims that are supposedly there. Needing 6 days discussing with a lawyer to remember who it could be. But not able to say who it was.
How many times has a Supreme Court position become open at the end of one presidency and not filled until the next. Garland wasn't the first.
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I'd put it at better than 50/50, if Thursday comes off as planned. That's the question.
I'm glad he's sticking with it. #FightThePowerComment
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I’d say it’s 80/20 he’s confirmed by Friday.Livin the dreamComment
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If Ford doesnt show on Thursday, he may get confirmed that afternoon...."When life hands you lemons, make lemonade." Better have some sugar and water too, or else your lemonade will suck!Comment
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Yeah, I've switched on old Brett. There's still a chance he could be innocent of the charges, but there's no chance he's not lying. The Fox interview was a disaster. Had he come on there and said we had some wild parties and a lot of fun, not unlike many other kids that go through high school, but I NEVER sexually assaulted ANYONE... Naw, "choir boy" Brett comes on and starts talking about all he wanted to do was study (insert faux pre-tear, eye-reddening moment). He spoke about his virginity extending "well past his high school years". Then in the next sentence he talks about there being parties and people drinking too much and that all of us have done things we look back on with regret... WTF?
Let me educate a few of the members on here who may not be familiar with what goes on at drinking parties at high school. When boys/young men get drunk, the VERY first thing they start talking about or looking for is *****. The next thing that happens is someone usually starts fighting. High intake of alcohol lowers inhibition. It's our natural/learned inhibitions that keep us from doing unlawful activity. Just about every crime on the planet occurs while somebody is under the influence. I'm not saying anybody at the Kavanaugh parties were doing unlawful activities, I'm reiterating the point that alcohol makes you act like a different person than when sober - that is indisputable. Everybody knows this.
Mr. Kavanaugh wants us to believe he used to get smashed in high school but there's no chance he wasn't back in a bedroom engaging in highly sexualized activities? Brett gay? Okay, OKAY... Brett, there was no penetration! You were still a virgin. But you were not getting drunk and playing Monopoly all night. Tell it like it is.
The ONLY way Brett's interview on FOX makes sense is if he never drank in high school or just sipped on beers to look cool. His reputation was as a nerd that never felt comfortable at wild parties. Most of the time he just slipped away and went to bed cuddling his blanky. Except that's not how Brett went through high school. Brett was extremely socially active, active enough to be able to get 65 women to sign off on his reputation in 24 hours. I don't know anybody who could do that let alone 35 years later ROFL. Brett not only wasn't a shy nerd, he must have been a god. Brett has been on top of a lot of women in high school. Now he's attempting to play the choir boy and it sickens me. He's either an idiot or he thinks the average American is an idiot. Both might be true.
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"It is from this experience that I concluded that although Brett was normally reserved, he was a notably heavy drinker, even by the standards of the time, and that he became aggressive and belligerent when he was very drunk. I did not observe the specific incident in question, but I do remember Brett frequently drinking excessively and becoming incoherently drunk." -Brett's roommate from Yale
So yeah... if the Republicans have any common sense, they dump Kavanaugh immediately and choose a female conservative who will likely be untouchable - a minority would be even better. This would bolster the Republican's tarnished public imagine due to Trump's oft unsavory social behavior, erase the entire Brett "Casanova" Kavanaugh debacle from the public consciousness, and change the momentum in the mid-terms.
I mean... is standing up for a lone Supreme Court Justice nominee with a spotty history worth losing the House? Worth losing the Super Majority? Put your egos aside clowns and do the right thing. Dump the chump so he can go back to being a virgin choir boy (in his mind).
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Dump him now, and there ain't gonna' be a confirmation for anyone, before November.
I think your average garden variety dreg would have the smarts to think "well, the right side of the aisle just rolled over for the left. Why vote for those *********** anyway?" This is a conflict of morality. -
"Dump him now, and there ain't gonna' be a confirmation for anyone, before November."
I don't understand why? All they need is 2-3 weeks.
"I think your average garden variety dreg would have the smarts to think "well, the right side of the aisle just rolled over for the left. Why vote for those *********** anyway?"
My informal polling of Republican family and friends concurs with your assessment. They are tickled shitless after the FOX interview and believe even more strongly that Kavanaugh is being framed.
I am involuntarily immune to group think and other sheeply behavior. Is there something wrong with my logic? Am I the one lost in the pasture here?
T
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There's a serious double-standard at work here that I just can't stomach. Dare I say, I resist it...
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Over the last couple days I have come to believe that Ford's story is highly likely to be genuine. The fact that it is politically advantageous to the Democratic party may just be a coincidence. The LAST thing the Republicans want to do with the midterms approaching is have a very convincing woman start telling the story of how she was raped on national television - complete with water works and piles of Kleenex. It wouldn't take a very good performer to outshine Brett's socially awkward delivery. This is a no-win situation folks. Remember the objective: get a conservative SCOTUS confirmed. The rest of the agenda can go to hell. I predict the Republicans will lose several votes if Ford is allowed to testify. Then they will look reactionary and disorganized when they can Kavanaugh instead of proactively moral and strong.
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Personally I think it's less than 50/50, maybe a lot less than 50/50 at this point. He did look bad on TV. This whole mess is screwed up and they ALL should be ashamed of themselves.
I mean everyone.
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It’s funny how when the left controls the legislative and executive branches they get to work and get sh*t done. It’s basically all bad sh*t, but nonetheless they get sh*t done.
When the right is in control of both branches they end up acting like a bunch of spineless nincompoop boobs taking turns cutting each others’ d*cks off.
The pols on the right are strangely beholden to the mood and whims of the mainstream media, when the people who adhere to the MSM are overwhelmingly NOT the people who put them into office. Like a strange bizarro world where one is more inclined to try an appease an enemy that will never be satisfied, rather than unify with those in your own corner.Comment
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