Severe Weather

[wsushox1]

Saturday looks to be a high-end severe weather event depending on the ejection of the upper level trough from the Great Basin area. Sunday looks stormy too but the upper level winds are not quite as conducive to tornadic storms on Sunday as on Saturday. Still a lot of details to be worked out that will tell exactly where the main action will be but it is certainly possible that most of the state will be under the gun on Saturday.

[wsushox1]

Headed up to the White mountains in about 2 hours to do some flyfishing. I doubt I'll see anything like that up there. Oh well I'll just have to settle on some 20 to 22 inch rainbows at Becker Lake.

That sounds like too much fun. till I'll be out on Silver Creek and Henry's Fork in Idaho in two months.

[WstateU]

Headed up to the White mountains in about 2 hours to do some flyfishing. I doubt I'll see anything like that up there. Oh well I'll just have to settle on some 20 to 22 inch rainbows at Becker Lake.

Awwwhhh, me loves to fish!

[ShockerFever]

This is why you don't drop "large tornado outbreak" 5 days in advance. It is then that you look like a complete doofus.

[DanielBryan]

Suppose to be all east now, figures.

[wsushox1]

Suppose to be all east now, figures.

Not even that.....it's a complete poop set-up. Even if it were to set up over us on sunday you'd get a blob of linear storms firing off the dryline because of Meridional/SE upper level flow.

It's going to be a total crapfest.

Saturday is still the most promising day but even that isn't looking too good as the ejection of the upper level trough isn't going to happen until well after dark and by then the warm sector will be fully capped.

[ShockerFever]

Suppose to be all east now, figures.

No. Couldn't be further from accurate.

If there's any decent tornado threat, it would occur Saturday night, west of Wichita. But LCL's are going to be high, moisture quality could be an issue, the cap could be too strong, and the upper support looks to arrive well after peak heating.

Large tornado outbreak? Good call.

Sunday will probably be east of Wichita but it's just gonna be a unidirectional junk fest.

Again, good call with the large tornado outbreak.

Next time, keep your trap shut or try to squeeze out one ounce of intelligent thought before posting.

[ShockerFever]

Looks like wsushox beat me to the punch, minus the much deserved tongue lashing at DOoFOus.

[pinstripers]

Had a whopping .20 rain. Gone already. Damn.

[ShockBand]

ejection... isn't going to happen until well after dark and by then the warm sector will be fully capped.

I spend too much time around middle schoolers, because this portion has me thinking more about WstateU's photo contributions and less about the weather. Eject what now?

[DUShock]

More on the weather east of the turnpike.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

NWS Briefing: http://youtu.be/MXV99rY5XFE

[SB Shock]

Mike Smith has said:

Saturday's forecast is very difficult. Moisture will be low during the afternoon and the low pressure system in the upper atmosphere will be too far to the west to have maximum effect. While any afternoon thunderstorms that develop will be severe, I think they will be minimum. However, I am very concerned that severe thunderstorms, with a chance of tornadoes, may occur Saturday night in Kansas and Oklahoma.

so things may get a little interesting...

[wsushox1]

Mike Smith has said:



so things may get a little interesting...

The overnight threat is actually pretty strong as the upper level forcing will arrive around 1-2 in the morning and the forcing for ascent will be so strong it should be able to break the cap.

[IlliniShocker]

Considering my college major (atmospheric sciences), I feel like a terrible person for avoiding discussion in this thread. Just have had some rough personal times, so I've been out of the loop for awhile.

That being said, some of my college buddies are still making their way west right now for some chasing, and I'll probably meet up with them in OKC around lunch tomorrow. As of right now, the (obviously extremely subject to change) target is around Lawton, OK. Unfortunately, seeing how I'm one of the roughly 18 people in the country that is still without a smart phone, I won't be able to post anything on here this weekend. In the event that anything play's out, I'll try uploading some pictures when I get back. FINGERS CROSSED

[IlliniShocker]

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