2013 Severe Weather - Act II

[BenWSU]

http://www.theweatherspace.com/2013/05/18/tws-enhanced-tornado-watch-001/

Some people criticize that guy and his site but weather is so unpredictable - He predicted Texas would get tornadoes this week

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

I put my buddy on Coldwater.

Seeing how everything is developing, this is gives lots of options based on deelopment but I feel puts him at the right spot.

[PlaneShocker]

Tornado on the ground in Ellis County.


NWS says Midnight - 2am is timeframe for Wichita storms

[Kung Wu]

Megatropic forces generating downward pressure across the Central Kanhoma region are propping up a spheroidal contractulation. I don't, however, observe any syntiotic backdraft signatures, so the outcome of hyperturbulation seems unlikely at this time. Now there is a scenario where calculonero clouds may form, dumping enough precipitotic g-nodes per millisecond that a build-up of ionized metasupils could put the region into an extended watch scenario.

[pinstripers]

Megatropic forces generating downward pressure across the Central Kanhoma region are propping up a spheroidal contractulation. I don't, however, observe any syntiotic backdraft signatures, so the outcome of hyperturbulation seems unlikely at this time. Now there is a scenario where calculonero clouds may form, dumping enough precipitotic g-nodes per millisecond that a build-up of ionized metasupils could put the region into an extended watch scenario.

that would suck

[shocksrbest]

Megatropic forces generating downward pressure across the Central Kanhoma region are propping up a spheroidal contractulation. I don't, however, observe any syntiotic backdraft signatures, so the outcome of hyperturbulation seems unlikely at this time. Now there is a scenario where calculonero clouds may form, dumping enough precipitotic g-nodes per millisecond that a build-up of ionized metasupils could put the region into an extended watch scenario.

So glad you put that into layman's terms.

[WstateU]

Megatropic forces generating downward pressure across the Central Kanhoma region are propping up a spheroidal contractulation. I don't, however, observe any syntiotic backdraft signatures, so the outcome of hyperturbulation seems unlikely at this time. Now there is a scenario where calculonero clouds may form, dumping enough precipitotic g-nodes per millisecond that a build-up of ionized metasupils could put the region into an extended watch scenario.

So glad you put that into layman's terms.

@Kung Wu: lost me at "Megatropic"... :)

[wsushox1]

Day 1 Moderate for Sunday...Interesting to know where the SPC's highest Tornado Probs are-----not inline with what the NAM or GFS were showing. SPC Hinting at higher bases for the storms in OK due to a large Temperature and Dewpoint Spread.

[SB Shock]

One parameter that I see is a potential problem for the Wichita area is dewpoints have fallen from 72 to 58 overnight - so unless the moisture surges back to the west the action will be to the east.

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[SB Shock]

Morning update from SPC. The push things a little further east and tighten up the risk areas. Alot is going to be dependent on where the dryline gets setup for today.

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[pogo]

When Vern Miller was the AG the dry line was the Kansas border and extended upward including the air space over Kansas.

[wsushox1]

75 over 66 in Wichita. Latest Guidance has shown the dryline holding off on advancement until after initiation has started and then potentially a first round of Surface Based Storms---then a round of elevated later.

There also might be a triple point feature setting up this afternoon to focus convection on.

[ShockerFever]

75/68 is the latest ob I'm getting at ICT.

LCL's are going to be a problem in Oklahoma, but not here today. As always, the dryline placement will be critical in determining where initiation begins. Still a SE component to the wind here. If things continue to stay backed, the tornado potential should be pretty decent.

As wsushox just stated, the dryline may be slowing just a tad.

[PlaneShocker]

I hope wichita gets a tornado

[wsushox1]

Tornado Watch up...issued till 10pm