2013 Severe Weather - Act II

[PlaneShocker]

of course east of turnpike

[SB Shock]

Ehhhh

I don't know about this set-up anymore system has now been trending stronger and more progressive. Southerly winds at 500mb.

That's also a really favorably positioned dryline and one I'm not sure is going to be realized.

If the NAM and the GFS were to verifiy verbatim from this morning, and last nights run - the show is going to be in OK and well "East of Turnpike"

The high ends potential days have also the high potential to bust.

[SB Shock]

Friday Night update has Wichita potentially seeing severe weather for the next 3 days with best chance for now on Sunday

Saturday

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Sunday

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Monday


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[BenWSU]

Sunday will have a PDS tornado watch area ?

[wsushox1]

Sunday will have a PDS tornado watch area ?

Somewhere in the Central plains I am sure....whether that is KS depends on dryline position, and speed of the the trough.

[wsushox1]

Day 2 moderate up...including Wichita...

Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 180611

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ECNTRL OK...ERN
KS AND WRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MO VALLEY...

CORRECTED TO MAKE MINOR WORDING CHANGES

...REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY...
A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE
SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS A MID-LEVEL JET MOVES EWD THROUGH
THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE NEWD FROM CNTRL KS INTO ERN NEB AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
SEWD ACROSS ECNTRL KS AND CNTRL OK. SFC DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION LIKELY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND MIDDAY SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR. THE MODELS WEAKEN THE CAP
BY 21Z ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. STORMS SHOULD FIRST INITIATE IN NRN AND CNTRL KS...QUICKLY
EXPANDING SWD INTO NRN AND CNTRL OK. AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES
DURING THE EARLY EVENING...A SEVERE PRODUCING MCS MAY ORGANIZE
ACROSS ERN KS AND ECNTRL OK...MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK
AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY 21Z SUNDAY AT TULSA...OKLAHOMA CITY AND KANSAS
CITY SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500
J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA AS A MID-LEVEL JET MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS COMBINED WITH 850 TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS. IN
ADDITION...A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BECOME FOCUSED BY EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING FROM SW MO SWWD INTO ECNTRL OK. SUPERCELLS ON THE WRN
EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BECOME TORNADIC WITH
A CLUSTER OF TORNADOES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST ACROSS ECNTRL OK
AND SE KS WHERE 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 400 M2/S2 IN THE 00Z TO 03Z TIMEFRAME. DUE TO THE STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...CELLS SHOULD REMAIN DISCRETE DURING MUCH OF THE EVENT.
SUPERCELLS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE. THE WIND DAMAGE
THREAT COULD BECOME ENHANCED DURING THE EVENING IF A LINEAR MCS CAN
ORGANIZE.

...MID-MO VALLEY/NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NCNTRL U.S.
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.
AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD INTO THE
MID-MO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD
BE IN PLACE BY MID AFTERNOON TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW
ACROSS ERN NEB...SERN SD...IA AND SRN MN WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS MAY
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE UNCAPPED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO TAKE PLACE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING
ACROSS IA AND MN ALONG WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION BY EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT OMAHA AND DES MOINES AT 21Z SHOW MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THIS
COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE DOMINANT
SUPERCELLS MAINLY IN SE NEB AND SRN IA WHERE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO BE THE GREATER THAN IN AREAS TO THE NORTH. A FEW TORNADOES MAY
ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS ESPECIALLY IF AN MCS CAN
ORGANIZE DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

...TN VALLEY/CNTRL AND ERN GULF COAST STATES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF
COAST STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AS SFC TEMPS WARM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM MIDDLE TN SEWD ACROSS NCNTRL AL INTO WRN GA AT 21Z SUNDAY SHOW
MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT
WITH MULTICELL STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 05/18/2013

[SB Shock]

Saturday opens up with Moderate risk (due to Hail threat) for Western KS and slight risk for the remaining parts of KS. Higher than normal tornado threat stretches from texas to s. dakota. Depending on how this goes, this could be the main show for Wichita as Sunday looks like Wichita may be on the western edge of the hit/miss boundary.

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[SB Shock]

The NAM shows a MCS type structure grazing the Wichita area tonight, while here is the HRW model. NAM and HRW seem to show initiation for Sunday occuring in the Wichita area just east of the turnpike.

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Predicted Saturday at 4z (11pm central) - HRW model.

[SB Shock]

Saturday opens up with Moderate risk (due to Hail threat) for Western KS and slight risk for the remaining parts of KS. Higher than normal tornado threat stretches from texas to s. dakota. Depending on how this goes, this could be the main show for Wichita as Sunday looks like Wichita may be on the western edge of the hit/miss boundary.

Previous SPC Update

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8am Update has came out with SPC expanding the MDT area eastward.

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[The Coach]

Your thoughts on the winds aloft? Don't appear high enough to me for a major outbreak.

[PlaneShocker]

Tornado Outbreak "likely"

[wsushox1]

New Day 2 Moderate....Moderate Risk Expanded Back Westward.




I don't know if any of you guys use the SREF but it can be really, really good. Used it alot this winter for winter precipitation.

[wsushox1]

Your thoughts on the winds aloft? Don't appear high enough to me for a major outbreak.

While they aren't overwhelming, 12z Sounding data have around 40-50KNTS in the 500mb level ejecting over the warm sector this afternoon. That's certainly strong enough for a strong tornado or two especially with decent turning in the lower portions of the atmosphere.. The term outbreak is something I definitely would not use for this afternoon....though Sunday afternoon may be more appropriate.

[SB Shock]

Your thoughts on the winds aloft? Don't appear high enough to me for a major outbreak.

I think today they are thinking that the instability is going to make up for the weaker winds aloft.

Mike Smith has a good blog with his analysis and his highest threat area.

http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2013/05/my-personal-storm-analysis.html?m=1

[wsushox1]

Newest ICT AFD..

000
FXUS63 KICT 181726
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1226 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEING
AFFECTED BY SEVERE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS IT EVOLVES/MOVES
EAST OFF THE DRY-LINE FURTHER TO THE WEST. STRONG TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AT PEAK HEATING WITH INITIATION
EXPECTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST
INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPER-CELLS
WITH A FEW TORNADOES. CAP STRENGTH WILL BE KEY IN HOW FAR EAST
THIS CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...THOUGH THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST AS FAR EAST
AS THE TURNPIKE THRU THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PROGGED ENERGY
HELICITY VALUES BELOW 3KM AND 1KM SUGGESTS THAT A TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST EVEN AFTER DARK UP THRU MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE THERE IS SOME NEGATATING FACTORS WITH CAP
STRENGTH AND FLOW ALOFT FOR CONVECTIVE AND SUPER-CELL MAINTENANCE
INTO EARLY TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY DOES LEAD TO KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY OPEN.

Wow, things are kind of falling in line.