2013 Severe Weather - Act II

[SB Shock]

Spring/summer might finally be arriving. SPC has a Day 6 (Sat - May 18) outlook that is worth watching. This will likely be a multi-day event (possibly Friday - Sun) and it will move around as we get closer to the date - but for the SPC to highlight this far out usually means they are getting strong severe weather signal in the long range models.

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[ShockerFever]

GFS has been consistent on a nice negatively-tilted trough ejecting out into the plains around Saturday to Sunday. Still a long ways out with things likely to change but it's nice to see at least something interesting in the forecast. One of the early concerns right now is some pretty warm temperatures aloft working in there. That would be a real wrinkle if that trend continues..

[wsushox1]

GFS has been consistent on a nice negatively-tilted trough ejecting out into the plains around Saturday to Sunday. Still a long ways out with things likely to change but it's nice to see at least something interesting in the forecast. One of the early concerns right now is some pretty warm temperatures aloft working in there. That would be a real wrinkle if that trend continues..

Yep.

Have to believe the warm 700mb temps are going to verify to some extent - can cooling spread over in time to use maximum instability? We will see. Should be some nice rains across Central KS,

[SB Shock]

The SPC has now moved the threat more north and east of the SC Kansas for Sat (D5) and Sunday (D6). The threat seems to be mitigated in our area by lack of moisture and strong cap. The Wichita NWS office believe the threat will be more Sunday/Monday as better forcing and cooling moves into the region.

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Interestingly the Wichita office is predicting a potential for severe weather in N. KS on Wednesday near the warm front and strong storms elsewhere which the SPC has not flagged yet except as an area of general storms.

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[wsushox1]

The SPC has now moved the threat more north and east of the SC Kansas for Sat (D5) and Sunday (D6). The threat seems to be mitigated in our area by lack of moisture and strong cap. The Wichita NWS office believe the threat will be more Sunday/Monday as better forcing and cooling moves into the region.

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Interestingly the Wichita office is predicting a potential for severe weather in N. KS on Wednesday near the warm front and strong storms elsewhere which the SPC has not flagged yet except as an area of general storms.

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Last night's GFS seemed to show an very, very subtle Showrtwave moving through causing an MCS like structure in the overnight hours.

Poor Frontal Timing is what is really gonna do us in - and cause parts of SC KS to possibly blank on Precipitation.

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

Anyone tracking models showing a Tropical Disturbance in the Gulf the last week of May?

It seems like if it comes to fruition it would hit parts of OK and KS woth much needed rainfall.

Thoughts?

[SB Shock]

Last night's GFS seemed to show an very, very subtle Showrtwave moving through causing an MCS like structure in the overnight hours.

Poor Frontal Timing is what is really gonna do us in - and cause parts of SC KS to possibly blank on Precipitation.

Timing is always the tough thing. Accuweather graphic

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[SB Shock]

SPC highlight for Sat (Day 4), Sun (Day 5) and Mon (Day 6). The Wichita office kind of figured out there is very little chance that anything much is going to happen today with the cap and lack of moisture.


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[SB Shock]

Anyone tracking models showing a Tropical Disturbance in the Gulf the last week of May?

It seems like if it comes to fruition it would hit parts of OK and KS woth much needed rainfall.

Thoughts?

I saw a feature off of the West of Mexico moving into the Gulf of Baja?

[wsushox1]

Sunday looks to be quite active as the timing of the storm has slowed down.

[ShockerFever]

Very interested to see tonight's GFS/NAM. Things are definitely getting interesting and as wsushox mentioned, the models are slowing the system down, which puts Sunday in the driver's seat. I've already looked at the Wichita NWS forecast discussion and "severe weather outbreak" has already been dropped. Again, still a ways out, but things have definitely increased favorably for our area in the severe weather department.

[wsushox1]

This is a very powerful sounding - tonights GFS for KICT on Sunday at 7pm.

Also depending on Whether or not a secondary low can form Monday afternoon to keep moisture around Monday might be a SVR day as well.

[wsushox1]

NM

[SB Shock]

The show remains to be Sunday afternoon and evening.

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[wsushox1]

Ehhhh

I don't know about this set-up anymore system has now been trending stronger and more progressive. Southerly winds at 500mb.

That's also a really favorably positioned dryline and one I'm not sure is going to be realized.

If the NAM and the GFS were to verifiy verbatim from this morning, and last nights run - the show is going to be in OK and well "East of Turnpike"