Major Winter Storm - Oz Part 2 [Sunday/Monday]

[SB Shock]

Winter Storm Watch up for area with ICT office predicting 6-12 inches for the Wichita area. That don't have enough confidence in the what the wind profile is going to be to issue a blizzard watch.

winger_4.JPGwinter 8.JPGwinter 12.JPG

[SB Shock]

SREF Model.jpg

[SB Shock]

Well it certainly seems like there is an awful lot of difference between "GFS" and "NAM". If I'm reading it right, one indicates almost no one in Kansas will get more than 4 inches, while the other has a pretty good section of Kansas getting 4-16 inches. Hate to see the third more aggressive model.

I believe the NAM (12 km) has a smaller grid spacing so it will capture finer detail than the GFS (40 km). That means each data point represents 12km block and 40 km block for GFS.

When models match up, that gives the forecaster greater confidence, and when they don't they will hedge their bets.

The higher density models are will start capturing the detail of the storm potential soon (i.e. HRW, NAM-4, RAP and HRRR).

[pinstripers]

We're in a drought.

We are in the worst drought of the last 80 years, but 8" of snow with 40 mph winds kills people.

[shoxlax]

We are in the worst drought of the last 80 years, but 8" of snow with 40 mph winds kills people.

I will take my chances. Bring on the moisture.

[pogo]

The forcasteres say that the snow amounts will depend largely on how much of it is rain before it turns to snow. That is not a good combination...rain then snow = snow over a layer of ice. Let the funs times begin.

[ShockerFever]

We are in the worst drought of the last 80 years, but 8" of snow with 40 mph winds kills people.

Don't go outside and get stuck in it then.

Droughts can also kill.

[wsushox1]

Droughts kill more people (globally) and over time is the second most fiscally damaging natural disaster (second to Hurricanes and Typhoons).

Also on this Mornings 12z Runs the NAM is a northern Outlier.

[pinstripers]

Globally is not really my main concern. Not going out in it is really not an option.

[ShockerFever]

We are all sorry that the world doesn't revolve around you.

For the guy that's been crying drought for two years, I do find it funny how he's now denying much-needed moisture.

[shoxlax]

We might as well buy our water from the Chinese too.

[pinstripers]

I guess your point escapes me. This past snow is inconvenient and expensive for everybody, but it gives us a couple inches of water that we all need. A blizzard is quite a different matter. Probably all of this is difficult to understand.

[rrshock]

We are in the worst drought of the last 80 years, but 8" of snow with 40 mph winds kills people.

That aids in killing people, but the idiots that drive like it is a NASCAR race kill people. I know that it isn't good, but we do need the moisture.

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

Models just went from bad to worse.

Several showing SC Kansas and NC Oklahoma in the major bands all day. Looks like the freezing line will move past Wichita early.

[SB Shock]

Nam model

Nam12_snow.jpg