2024 - Severe Storms (T-Storms and Blizzards)

[Kung Wu]

Historic analogs compare this setup most closely to the April 26,1991 outbreak. Things seem to be pointing towards that although the cloud cover could be the last thing stopping anything major from happening. If the clouds break by noon, things will get serious.

Any idea the timeframe for potential outbreak?

Like 4pm until ??

[SubGod22]

Work has just let us know that they would like everyone to be out of the office by 4. Fun times

[ShockBand]

Correct it to "Current Level" and "Late Afternoon Level"

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[ShockBand]

Fairfield west of Hutch. Kiowa west of Medicine. Haviland west of Pratt. Macksville west of Haviland. Lincoln in Nebraska.

The Lincoln here is about 25 miles west of Salina and a bit north of I-70.

[pinstripers]

I don't know where exactly Fairfield, Kiowa, Haviland, Lincoln or Macksville are, but they're all closing between 1 and 2 as well.
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Fairfield west of Hutch. Kiowa west of Medicine. Haviland west of Pratt. Macksville west of Haviland. Lincoln in Nebraska.

[SubGod22]

Valley Center just canceled school and are letting out early.

Ark City closing at 145
Circle closing at 2
Udall closing at 2
Valley Center closing at 130 for HS and MS. Elementaries at 230
Wichita has cancelled all after school activities.

I don't know where exactly Fairfield, Kiowa, Haviland, Lincoln or Macksville are, but they're all closing between 1 and 2 as well.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more. But guarantee every afternoon/evening activity is cancelled today.

KAKE will have a continuing list of updates I'm sure.

[SB Shock]

Historic analogs compare this setup most closely to the April 26,1991 outbreak. Things seem to be pointing towards that although the cloud cover could be the last thing stopping anything major from happening. If the clouds break by noon, things will get serious.

If I remember correctly with the 1991, it was similar conditions. Dreary all day and then the clouds broke late in the afternoon and storms exploded.

[Kung Wu]

Valley Center just canceled school and are letting out early.

[pinstripers]

FWIW

He did also mention a stretch between Pratt and Wellington could be where they end up.

Compared this system to the one in 2011 that was quite active.

Well, alrighty then

[ShockerFever]

Historic analogs compare this setup most closely to the April 26,1991 outbreak. Things seem to be pointing towards that although the cloud cover could be the last thing stopping anything major from happening. If the clouds break by noon, things will get serious.

[SubGod22]

FWIW

Reed says here he is targeting the Enid area as of now, but the projections for this system aren't pretty anywhere in this OKC to ICT area.

He did also mention a stretch between Pratt and Wellington could be where they end up.

Compared this system to the one in 2011 that was quite active.

[SB Shock]

Graphic for high risk. High risk happens like once or twice a year.

[SubGod22]

Where's Reed chasing today?

[ShockerFever]

They are upgrading to high risk.

[SB Shock]

The first Day 1 outlook. SPC has enlarged the Moderate area. It is possible (for at least OK) that this may be upgraded to High Risk due to tornadoes later in the day if they get more confidence on location and the tornado risk increases. Not everybody is going to get a high-end storm, but if there is a discrete supercell heading your way, be prepared, as it will probably go tornadic. The best thing to happen is a line of storms develop and a good chunk of Kansas gets rain.

Day1a.jpg

The 4PM to 8PM time frame across south central Kansas into Oklahoma
looks like the window when things could be at peak severity(most
favorable area for a Severe Weather Outbreak to occur). Any
discrete supercell in this environment would be capable of
producing very damaging winds up to 80mph, giant hail up to
softball size, and strong potentially longer-track tornadoes.