Severe Weather 2021

[SB Shock]

The lack of moisture will limit this from being a widespread extreme event. Probably one super cell laying down some hail and possible tornado.

Will be interesting to see what Mike Smith says during the day.

http://www.mikesmithenterprisesblog.com/

What Mike Smith perceives as the threat.

d2.JPG

[ShockerFever]

LCLs are gonna be too high for tornadoes, especially with late arriving moisture.

Cap looks pretty stout too til late. Only real play here is up around I-70. I'm gonna put down a hefty wager that Wichita won't get a tenth of an inch of rain out of this.

[SB Shock]

LCLs are gonna be too high for tornadoes, especially with late arriving moisture.

Cap looks pretty stout too til late. Only real play here is up around I-70. I'm gonna put down a hefty wager that Wichita won't get a tenth of an inch of rain out of this.

Yip, you are spot on. Each model run, the threat keeps inching north. Going to be highly conditional and still is a moisture deprivation.
d1.JPG

tornado threat

d1t.JPG

Hail threat

d1h.JPG

[wichshock65]

LCLs are gonna be too high for tornadoes, especially with late arriving moisture.

Cap looks pretty stout too til late. Only real play here is up around I-70. I'm gonna put down a hefty wager that Wichita won't get a tenth of an inch of rain out of this.

You're a weather guy?

[NCAABound]

So I remember in like the 80's hearing that severe weather moves around in a 7 year cycle. I think I found the paper, it was written by Ted Fujita in 1975. There looks to be a embedded 25 year and 45 year oscillation in east/west and north/south movement of basically the center of mass of "tornado alley".

I need to digest it some and make sure I'm reading it correct and want to see if I project it out to know it explains what we are seeing.

Anything from this yet?

[WstateU]

Yip, you are spot on. Each model run, the threat keeps inching north. Going to be highly conditional and still is a moisture deprivation.
d1.JPG

tornado threat

d1t.JPG

Hail threat

d1h.JPG

The first image is definitely interesting...
I’ll keep it clean... looks like a lazer gun.

[ShockerFever]

You're a weather guy?

Yah, it was my original major going into college.

[wichshock65]

Yah, it was my original major going into college.

Sweet! If I had a do-over in life, it would have been meteorology.

[SB Shock]

Here is the 1130 update, like Fever said - I you are Salina or going to Salina watch out.

d1updated.JPG

[SB Shock]

Anything from this yet?

So Fujita had this plot of the variation in tornadoes East/West and North/South.

Fujita.JPG

I have tried to replicate these trends and extrapolate out to the present and +10 years

fujita sim.JPG

Next I combined the two curves to get the overall oscillation. It would seem to make sense with the center of mass shifting to the SE U.S..

Fujita future.JPG

The green is the projected trends for the next 10 year, which would say we should start seeing the more Tornadoes back into the Central Plains.

[wufan]

Impressive!

[NCAABound]

Thank you! That is impressive!

[ShockerFever]

So how much rain did all you Wichitans get this weekend?

[wichshock65]

Zero

[SB Shock]

So how much rain did all you Wichitans get this weekend?

April (and May to this point) is looking to be below normal precipitation. Not boding well for when this abnormal coolness ends and summer starts.