Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[Kung Wu]

You just have to trust President Trump. His gut is telling him that the 3.4% death rate from the coronavirus is false.

And if he's right? WHO is overstating because they are using only reported cases when a person checks into a hospital.

Check out South Korea's death rate: 0.6%. That's because mild cases are being counted there. That is easily the clearest picture we have of what the real death rate will look like. They have tested over 140,000 people. Compared with 1,500 in the United States.

Also, China (ground zero) is reporting a 2.1% death rate nationally, and that includes the early "what the hell is this" fiasco where the death rate was 17% at one time in Wuhan.

I think Trump is a LOT more informed than you think he is.

[ShockerPrez]

The biggest problem Trump has in dealing with this, is that he will never get the benefit of the doubt and his words will be turned against him by the 90% of people with the voice who hate his existence.

So, if he acknowledges that and shuts up, he's not doing enough. If he tries to understate the seriousness to calm the country, he doesn't understand it.

[DCShockerFan05]

A couple things before I have to get back to work--

1. MoValley, please thank your wife for her hard work, not just with COVID but in general. I'm a huge admirer and appreciator of nurses and I know, at least secondhand, how stressful and overwhelming the work can be.

2. Definitions really matter. A lot of the confusion I see these days is because two people think they're talking about the same concept but are actually referring to different things. Here's what I mean: The Case Fatality Rate, which is the number that WHO says is 3.4% right now, is a very specific thing: The number of patients who have died of a disease divided by the number of REPORTED cases. It doesn't include unreported cases, AND IT DOESN'T CLAIM TO. It's totally fair and totally accurate to say that the probability of death if infected (sometimes called the "infection fatality rate) is lower than the measured CFR. That's probably what the President and some others are getting at. But that's not the same as saying the CFR is "false", or that the WHO is wrong for reporting it. The CFR is what it is. And it's a useful concept in its own right--if you're preparing resources for an outbreak and you want to know how many of the cases that DO present are going to die, the CFR is exactly the number you want.

3. If you're making comparisons, make sure you're comparing along the same definitions. Here's a trap a lot of people seem to be falling into: "COVID's true fatality rate is probably lower than 3.4% (see above), maybe even just a few tenths of a percent. That's the flu's fatality rate, so COVID is just like the flu." What's the problem? The flu number is ALSO a CFR, so it ALSO excludes lots of minor, unreported cases. The true "infection fatality" of seasonal flu is likely vanishingly small. This metastudy of H1N1 epidemiology is instructive in this regard. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/art...9/#!po=40.9091.

Point is, if you're going to discount one CFR, you have to adjust the other, otherwise it's apples and oranges. But it's really difficult to know how many unreported cases there are, so if we're trying to compare one disease to another, we might actually want to stick with CFR.

4. The difference in fatality rates between age groups also shows up in flu. Have a look at table 4 in the above link, which shows estimated H1N1 influenza CFRs from a bunch of different studies broken up by age group. So let's look at those numbers: the CFRs for 65+ tend to be just shy of 1%, and the CFRs for younger patients are much lower. From that you get weighted averages well below 1%. Ok, so what? Well, remember that we have early numbers for COVID too, and the 65+ fatality rates are way higher than the flu rates (see above in this thread). The PATTERN is the same--both kill old people lot more than young people, but the ACTUAL NUMBERS are very different--COVID far more deadly than flu.

To summarize:
1. The risk of dying if you get COVID is lower than the measured CFR, perhaps by a lot. That's true for any disease, any time.
2. That doesn't make the CFR inaccurate, or useless. It definitely doesn't make it "false."
3. The CFR of COVID is substantially higher--an order of magnitude higher--than the CFR for influenza. It's likely that the "infection fatality" is also much higher, though both are smaller than their respective CFRs.
4. COVID is lots worse for old people than flu is for those same old people. It's dangerous to reduce things to "bad stuff happens to old people and this is bad stuff so there's nothing new." Heat stroke is dangerous, but a house fire is more so. Nobody would say it's just another spike in temperature.

[1979Shocker]

Coronavirus Live Updates: Cases in the U.S. Surpass 250

With 15 deaths out of over 250 cases in the U.S., that puts the percentage of deaths at 6%. When more cases are reported, that percentage will drop. And minor cases of the coronavirus won't be reported at all, so the actual percentage will be even lower.

[Napoleon Dynamite]

Thank you DCShockerFan05 - I really appreciate your insight and expertise on this issue. Please keep posting additional info and insight.

This is an absolutely great comparison that you made: "COVID is lots worse for old people than flu is for those same old people. It's dangerous to reduce things to "bad stuff happens to old people and this is bad stuff so there's nothing new." Heat stroke is dangerous, but a house fire is more so. Nobody would say it's just another spike in temperature.

[wufan]

The biggest problem Trump has in dealing with this, is that he will never get the benefit of the doubt and his words will be turned against him by the 90% of people with the voice who hate his existence.

So, if he acknowledges that and shuts up, he's not doing enough. If he tries to understate the seriousness to calm the country, he doesn't understand it.

How is that different than every other thing that happens?

[wufan]

Coronavirus Live Updates: Cases in the U.S. Surpass 250

With 15 deaths out of over 250 cases in the U.S., that puts the percentage of deaths at 6%. When more cases are reported, that percentage will drop. And minor cases of the coronavirus won't be reported at all, so the actual percentage will be even lower.

This is correct. I’m missing the point.

[Kung Wu]

"That's the flu's fatality rate, so COVID is just like the flu." What's the problem? The flu number is ALSO a CFR, so it ALSO excludes lots of minor, unreported cases. The true "infection fatality" of seasonal flu is likely vanishingly small.

But it's really difficult to know how many unreported cases there are, so if we're trying to compare one disease to another, we might actually want to stick with CFR.

That'd be like comparing Duke's 10-year RPI average to Northern Iowa's RPI after a single game at the beginning of a new season. They are both RPI, but one has been studied to death and can fairly accurately be projected into a reasonable expectation, while the other one is completely unknown due to too little data.

You just cannot compare those CFRs at this point in time and draw any meaningful conclusion.

[wsushox1]

I don't know how anyone could watch the CDC press conference last night and think he has any idea what the hell he is talking about. Or feel good about the way the administration is handling things. But this is the same man who thinks negative interest rates are a good thing, so I suppose it checks out.

He literally said the following:

• I don't want to deal with the cruise ship because it will increase our positive numbers
• I don't believe in proactive measures because you can just wait and see the areas it pops up in.
• The tests that didn't work and had to be recalled were "perfect"
• Wants to continue to hold rallies because infection of attendees doesn't concern him.

If the deathrate of of those above 70 is accurately recorded in the rest of the world then I would think the vast majority of posters on this board would want a better response from the federal government.

[Kung Wu]

Quarantine hotel in China collapses: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...collapses.html

W.T.F.?!?!

[Dennis_Celery]

I'be had enough of this freaking hype, over reaction, and panic over the coronavirus. Somewhere around 98 to 99% of us that get it will be just fine.

[wufan]

I'be had enough of this freaking hype, over reaction, and panic over the coronavirus. Somewhere around 98 to 99% of us that get it will be just fine.

Actually it’s 95-99%. ;)

[Dennis_Celery]

Actually it’s 95-99%. ;)

I apologize I should have included my source:

ER doctor: Americans must live their lives, 98 to 99% of people who get coronavirus will 'do just fine'


https://www.foxnews.com/media/james-...v-will-be-fine


wink-wink, nudge-nudge

[DCShockerFan05]

I’ve said my piece about how to understand numbers but even if we just call it 1%, I don’t get how anyone is saying that’s not a big deal. If you knew that 100 people who go to the game tomorrow would be selected at random and shot dead, would you go? What if the deal is that you’re going to be safe regardless, but the oldest 100 fans will be shot? Would you enjoy being at that game? What if it’s 100 old folks unless you cancel a vacation or work from home for a couple weeks and then they’ll only shoot 99? What if it’s even just a coin flip to save the 100th?

how about if 1500 are kidnapped and stabbed with needles for two weeks before 100 are shot? (Remember the rate of serious, hospitalized cases ~15-20%)

Nobody’s going to save the world or end it on their own. But it’s a society, for God’s sake. Don’t think what you do doesn’t matter, for better or worse.

[1979Shocker]

The First Case of Coronavirus In Kansas Is Confirmed In Johnson County