Avoiding the MVC Play-In Round

[1972Shocker]

The Shocks (8-8) are currently in 6th place, one game up on Indiana State (7-9). Drake (6-10) has fallen to 8th place 2 games behind the Shocks.

Indiana State is playing much better since they removed Jim Wiedie as Coach. They defeated both Northern Iowa (70-62) and Bradley (70-57) at home this weekend. Northern Iowa turned around and played Illinois State to a 3-point game in Normal.

Drake on the other hand is struggling. They have lost 8 of their last 10 with their only wins agaisnt bottom-feeders Evansville and SIU at home. They lost Friday at home to Creighton by 20.

Drake hosts Indiana State on Thursday and Illinois State on Saturday.
Indiana State plays at Creighton on Saturday.

The Shocks travel to Bradley on Thursday and to UNI on Saturday. Both teams playing much better than earleir in the year when the Shocks defeated them at home.

If Drake goes 1-1 and Indiana State 0-2 then it does not matter what the Shocks do. Best chance of that happening is Drake beating Indiana State on Thursday. This is possible since Drake is at home, but they sure have not been playing very well lately. Definitely not a slam dunk. I am counting on Illinois State knocking off Drake and Creighton over Indiana State on Saturday.

The Shocks can make this all mute if they win both games. They will secure 6th place or better.

If the Shocks go 1-1, Drake is in the Play-In round but Indiana State can still tie them for 6th if they go 2-0. Tiebreaker will depend on where Creighton and MSU finish. The Shocks have the advantage of a sweep over MSU, but INS would have the advantage with a split with CU.

If the Shocks go 0-2, Drake goes 2-0 and Indiana State goes 1-1 then we would have a 3-way tie for 6th with Drake winning the tiebreaker by beating 1st place Illinois State.

If the Shocks go 0-2, Drake goes 0-2 and Indiana State goes 1-1 then we have a 2-way tie for sixth. In this case, the Shocks own the tiebreaker by virtue of their sweep of MSU as both the Shocks and INS will be 0-2 vs Creighton in this scenario.

If the Shocks go 0-2 and Indiana State goes 2-0 then the Shocks will drop to 7th and be in the Play-In Round. Drake would finish 8th in this scenario.

I think the most likely sceanario is a two-way tie for 6th between the Shocks and Indiana State at 8-10 with the tiebreaker going to the Shocks by virtue of their sweep of MSU.

2nd most likely is Drake goes 1-1 and Inidana State goes 0-2 and Shocks back in to 6th even if they go 0-2 this week.

Still a lot of possiblities and moving parts. I think I have most of the possbilities and outcomes, but I wouldn't bet much on it.

Hopefully, the Shocks will not look back on the road losses to Evansville and SIU with some regret.

[shocksrox]

when there's a 3 way tie, they put the tied teams in a mini round-robin...so in your first 3-way tie scenario, drake would get the tiebreaker because of being 3-1 against WSU and Indiana State

the tiebreaker for 2 teams isn't solely best win - it's the same points system the guys use

because of this, in your first overall scenario, if Missouri State finishes 2nd, WSU would have the tiebreaker, as they will earn 35 points from the MSU sweep alone, while Indiana State would only get 16 points for the road win at Creighton this weekend

[1972Shocker]

when there's a 3 way tie, they put the tied teams in a mini round-robin...so in your first 3-way tie scenario, drake would get the tiebreaker because of being 3-1 against WSU and Indiana State

the tiebreaker for 2 teams isn't solely best win - it's the same points system the guys use

because of this, in your first overall scenario, if Missouri State finishes 2nd, WSU would have the tiebreaker, as they will earn 35 points from the MSU sweep alone, while Indiana State would only get 16 points for the road win at Creighton this weekend

Thanks for the clarification.

I think a 3-way tie is one of the more unlikely results, but could happen.

Seems like the Shocks need to do the following this week:

1. Take care of business themselves.

2. And in case No. 1 doesn't work out root for Missouri State.

[shocksrox]

no problem - here's the link on the MVC site that has the tiebreaker formula (and that points system)....hard to figure though, since you don't know what points to assign for the wins, since only 1st, 9th, and 10th places are locked in so far...can only guess

http://www.mvc-sports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=7600&KEY=&ATCLID=274386&SPID=2897&SPSID=41240

[1972Shocker]

If it does come down to a two-way tie with Indiana State the Shockers look to be in pretty good shape with the Power Rating System.

Looks like Missouri State could finish anywhere from a tie for 4th to 2nd. The Shockers two wins over MSU thus would be worth 25-35 points.

Indiana State counters with its sweeps of SIU and Evansville. However, the road wins over SIU and Evansville will only be worth 6 points.

I don't think Indiana State can make up that difference.

The Shocks also look pretty good in a 2-way with Drake. Drake would have to win over ILS to forge a tie with the Shocks, but the Shocks road win over MSU and its home wins over UNI & Bradley who both swept Drake put the Shocks in very good position vs Drake.

I like the Shocks position. Seems like about the only thing that would knock them into the Play-In round would be an 0-2 finish by the Shocks and a 2-0 finish by Indiana State.

[The Mad Hatter]

Re: Avoiding the MVC Play-In Round

The Shocks can make this all mute if they win both games. They will secure 6th place or better.

Actually, if the Shocks win both of the road games, they would secure 5th place or better.

If they win out, they would be tied with UNI even if UNI beat MSU, and we would have the tie-break by sweeping them.

In addition, if MSU beat BU, there would be either A) a two way tie between WSU and BU with WSU winning by sweeping BU or B) a three way tie between UNI, WSU, and BU with WSU winning by going 4-0 against UNI and BU.

Not saying that we are going to win out, but we could do awfully well for ourselves if we did, especially since MSU beating BU is not unrealistic.

[1972Shocker]

Yep. The main goal is to avoid the Play-In Round. Anything over and above that is some nice gravy.

I think the Shocks can finish as high as 4th and as low as 7th.

In any case, they will have exceeded their preseason selection of 9th.

By how much remains to be seen.

:goshocks:

[Shocker Fan]

These girls deserve some credit for getting us out of 10th place. Great progress has been made and they still have some opportunities to continue to move this program forward. Get a couple of wins this weekend and we could be talking about post-season play for the Lady Shockers!!!!

[1972Shocker]

I was unable to listen to the Bradley game tonight which I see the Shockers dropped by a 58-55 score.

In reading the game write-up and in looking at the box score sounds like a typical up and down game by the Shocks as they missed their first 10 shots and fell behind by 24-9 with 7:40 remaining in the half.

The Shocks outscored Bradley 19-7 the rest of the half to close to 31-28 at the half.

The Shocks promptly fell behind by 11 at 41-30 four minutes into the 2nd half. Still trailing by 10 with 8 minutes remaining the Shocks rallied and pulled within 1 at 50-51 with 5:42 remaining. Neither team scored a point over the next 4:00 minutes at which point the Shocks scored with 1:45 remaining to take a 52-51 lead. I think this was the Shocks only lead of the game. However, the Shocks could not hang on and Haleigh's 3-pointer to tie the game fell short at the buzzer.

There were 3 stretches of 5+ minutes (opening the game, opening the 2nd half and at the end of the game) in which the Shocks struggled mightily to score. Over this combined 16:30 they managed only 7 points, scoring 48 points over the remaining 23:30.

Both teams shot 35% from the field and combined for 40 turnovers (pretty fugly).

The Shocks did shoot pretty well behind the arc hitting 9-19 while Bradley was only 2-15. This is probably what allowed the Shocks to be in the game.

However, Bradley outrebounded the Shocks 46-28 (including 18-9 on the offensive boards) and shot 31 free throws to 7 for the Shocks outscoring them 22-6 from the line. This is where the game was lost.

On the positive side Drake knocked of Indiana State so the Shocks remain alone in 6th place a game ahead of Drake and Indiana State.

Drake plays Illinois State and Indiana State plays Creighton on Saturday while the Shocks travel to Northern Iowa. Especially tough tasks face Drake and Indiana State even at home facing the top 2 teams in the league.

At worst the Shocks will tie for 6th and should be in pretty good shape on the tiebreakers, if they have not already clinched the #6 seed. MSU beat UNI tonight which is good for the Shocks in the power rating tiebreaker.

The Shocks could tie UNI for 5th and finish the conference season with a .500 record if they can defeat the Panthers on Saturday. They will have to play better than tonight for that to happen.

[shocksrox]

a win is the best scenario for the shocks - with that, they'd be the 5th seed and would probably play bradley again in the valley tourney next friday

if the shocks lose, and indiana st & drake win, the shocks would drop to the 7th seed (3 way tie goes to a round robin, shocks are 2-2 vs. those 2, while drake is 3-1 and indiana state is 1-3)

as unlikely as it is for indiana state to win at creighton or drake to win vs illinois state, would rather not rely on other teams for the shockers fate

plus, would rather move up to the 5 and play bradley at MVC, rather then stay 6 and more then likely play creighton (MSU is the 2 and CU is the 3 barring the combination of a win by creighton vs indiana state and a loss by missouri state at bradley)

[1972Shocker]

At the half ILS is leading Drake 38-22 and Creighton is up on Indianta State 34-23.

Looking good for the Shocks. Let's hope those leads hold up.

[tgcshock]

At the half ILS is leading Drake 38-22 and Creighton is up on Indianta State 34-23.

Looking good for the Shocks. Let's hope those leads hold up.

Il. St. leading by 17 with 3:24 to play.

CU leading by 12 with about 2:15 to play.

Looking good for the Shox.

[tgcshock]

Il St. up 16 with 1 minute left.

CU wins.

Shox are going to avoid the play-in game.

[1972Shocker]

Shocks down 49-34 at the half to UNI. So their chance to move into a 5th place tie with UNI not looking good at this point.

[1972Shocker]

Shocks fall to UNI 85-66. Way too many points allowed. We have no chance when let a team go off for 80+.

Still Shocks finished 6th after two consecutive last place finishes and a preseason pick of 9th place.

We let a couple of opporutinities get away from us, but all in all a definite step in the right direction.