WBB: 2015 NCAA Basketball Tournament

[1972Shocker]

A very nice article by Taylor Eldridge in the Eagle on the Shocker's glue girl, 5th year Senior Kelsey Jacobs.

http://www.kansas.com/sports/college/wichita-state/article15233381.html

There has been no finer young lady to ever represent the Lady Shockers and Wichita State University.

I can't think of any player that is more deserving or that I would rather see be rewarded with an NCAA win.

Go Kelsey! :poster_shocks:

[flyingMoose]

A very nice article by Taylor Eldridge in the Eagle on the Shocker's glue girl, 5th year Senior Kelsey Jacobs.

I had always wondered how Kelsey and Wichita State found each other.

[flyingMoose]

For the serious geeks among us -

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-expect-a-no-16-seed-to-win-in-the-womens-tournament-ever-again/

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/march-madness-predictions-2015/#womens

[1972Shocker]

For the serious geeks among us -

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interacti...s-2015/#womens

I liked that interactive bracket. So the Shocks are considered to have less than a 1% chance to make the Sweet 16. I guess that makes the Shocker Ladies underdogs.

[oldtimewomen's hoopcoach]

For the serious geeks among us -

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-expect-a-no-16-seed-to-win-in-the-womens-tournament-ever-again/

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interacti...s-2015/#womens

Very well done article on Kelsey. As I have walked Koch Arena many times and do my usual old man pestering of the very patient and polite lady Shox, I've seen the pain Kelsey endures and know I've never been tough enough to go through that. I've seen CAL. Most teams don't press them. They have one guard that is not Alex quality and one decent post that we can handle. The officials like at Penn State will do all they can to get Cal a win. We can't make silly fouls, need to press, trap, board and play our game. We're 10 points better than CAL.

[1972Shocker]

If the Shocks play as well against Cal as they did against MSU in the Valley Tournament I really like their chances. We need to avoid foul trouble and we need to stay more or less close on the boards and not give up too many 2nd chances.

It would be nice if we could get 20 minutes of solid play from Jaleessa and Brittany off the bench. OTOH, an NCAA weekend is our normal work load and a piece of cake compared to the Valley Tournament and we will have had our normal amount of rest between a Sunday afternoon game and a Friday evening game.

[1972Shocker]

A repost from the Selection Show Thread:

Looks like Cal plays about 7 deep so I don't see them with a big depth advantage.

They start 6-3, 6-2, 6-2, 5-10 and 5-9 so they will have a size advantage but not overwhelmingly so. My guess is they are a pretty athletic team.

The Cal starting lineup is:
6-3 Sr. F Reshanda Gray leads the Bears with 17.5 PPG and 7.2 RPG
5-9 Sr. G Brittany Boyd 13.3 PPG and 7.7 RPG and also leads the Bears with 6.8 APG and has 94 steals on the year
6-2 Fr. G Mikayla Cowling is at 10.1 PPG and 4.9 RPG
5-10 So. G Mercedes Jefflo puts up 9.5 PPG and 3.1 RPG
6-2 Fr. G Gabby Green contributes 6.6 PPG and 5.7 RPG

Primary Reserves:
6-3 So. F Courtney Range averages 8.7 PPG and 5.5 RPG in 24 MPG
6-3 Fr. F Penina Davidson chips in 3.5 PPG and 1.5 RPG in 12 MPG

It looks to me like Brittany Boyd is Cal's slightly smaller version of Alex Harden. The only thing she doesn't do is block shots. Otherwise it looks to me like she is the player that makes Cal go. I suspect the Jamillah Bonner will probably get the primary duty of tying to control Boyd.

Not sure how Jody will choose to match up with the rest of the Bears but we may need Brittany Martin to give us more than her normal amount of minutes in the post. Perhaps spelling Alie here and there.

I would not expect that Alex, Jamillah, Kelsey or Michaela will get much down time unless foul trouble comes in to play.

Cal did lose big to a so-so Kansas team in Lawrence 39-62. And they also lost the following game at Long Beach State. Of course, those were road games. Cal was 4-4 over their last 8 games after winning 12 of their previous 14.

California Roster

California Stats

[1972Shocker]

nm

[The Mad Hatter]

Very well done article on Kelsey. As I have walked Koch Arena many times and do my usual old man pestering of the very patient and polite lady Shox, I've seen the pain Kelsey endures and know I've never been tough enough to go through that. I've seen CAL. Most teams don't press them. They have one guard that is not Alex quality and one decent post that we can handle. The officials like at Penn State will do all they can to get Cal a win. We can't make silly fouls, need to press, trap, board and play our game. We're 10 points better than CAL.

One key comparison, as a few Cal fans have already noted, is to Cal's loss to Long Beach State. Here is how Wichita State and Long Beach State compare defensively (national rank in parentheses):

	Turnover Margin	Steals Per Game	Scoring Defense	Scoring Margin	Rebound Margin
Wichita State	+6.06 (#9)	9.9 (#47)	51.0 (#4)	+13.4 (#23)	+1.0 (#147)
Long Beach State	+5.32 (#19)	10.1 (#41)	61.2 (#110)	+6.6 (#70)	-4.3 (#294)

In other words, Long Beach State is very similar to us in creating turnovers, but significantly worse than us in scoring defense and rebounding.

In the game with Cal, LBSU won in overtime 58-56. In that game, Cal committed 31 turnovers. Brittany Boyd, their highly touted senior guard, committed 9 all by herself.

Cal fans may point out that they were without their star post player Reshanda Gray for the second half as she was ejected on a flagrant 2 with 1:44 to go in the first half. The problem with that is that LBSU led 29-21 at the half, so Cal actually performed better in the half that Gray was out.

On top of all that, LBSU won without actually playing well at all:

They were out-rebounded by 9
They committed 19 turnovers themselves
They shot 28.8% from the floor (21-73)
They shot 17.4% from 3 (4-23)
They shot 44.4% from the line (12-27)

[oldtimewomen's hoopcoach]

One key comparison, as a few Cal fans have already noted, is to Cal's loss to Long Beach State. Here is how Wichita State and Long Beach State compare defensively (national rank in parentheses):

	Turnover Margin	Steals Per Game	Scoring Defense	Scoring Margin	Rebound Margin
Wichita State	+6.06 (#9)	9.9 (#47)	51.0 (#4)	+13.4 (#23)	+1.0 (#147)
Long Beach State	+5.32 (#19)	10.1 (#41)	61.2 (#110)	+6.6 (#70)	-4.3 (#294)

In other words, Long Beach State is very similar to us in creating turnovers, but significantly worse than us in scoring defense and rebounding.

In the game with Cal, LBSU won in overtime 58-56. In that game, Cal committed 31 turnovers. Brittany Boyd, their highly touted senior guard, committed 9 all by herself.

Cal fans may point out that they were without their star post player Reshanda Gray for the second half as she was ejected on a flagrant 2 with 1:44 to go in the first half. The problem with that is that LBSU led 29-21 at the half, so Cal actually performed better in the half that Gray was out.

On top of all that, LBSU won without actually playing well at all:

They were out-rebounded by 9
They committed 19 turnovers themselves
They shot 28.8% from the floor (21-73)
They shot 17.4% from 3 (4-23)
They shot 44.4% from the line (12-27)

If CAL gets down they frustrated, cry to officials,etc. We probably have first few minutes jitters, but then if we play our game, it is ours for the taking. The Shox and coaching staff are confident they can achieve their goal of a sweet 16

[flyingMoose]

... do my usual old man pestering of the very patient and polite lady Shox ... The officials like at Penn State ...

So ... have you ever asked any of them if Michaela actually touched that ball last year?

[flyingMoose]

I liked that interactive bracket. So the Shocks are considered to have less than a 1% chance to make the Sweet 16. I guess that makes the Shocker Ladies underdogs.

4% chance of making the Sweet 16 and less than 1% of the Elite Eight. That is because you will have to beat UConn to make the Elite Eight.

[flyingMoose]

A repost from the Selection Show Thread:

http://bearinsider.com/forums/showthread.php?91495-Cal-in-EAST-in-NCAAs-open-at-home-4-30-PST-Friday-against-Wichita-State

[oldtimewomen's hoopcoach]

So ... have you ever asked any of them if Michaela actually touched that ball last year?

I was at the game. It was not touched. And Dap, long after the season still says she never touched it. I sat away from Shox fans, so I was on the side it happened, about 20' from the baseline. Not even close.

[1972Shocker]

Bob Lutz: Could This Be A Time For Shocker Women's Breakthrough?

Harden, Bonner, Dapprich, Jacobs and Decker have combined to play 81.3 percent of the minutes for the Shocker women this season. WSU has made due with 10 players. There’s a fine line here, but so far everyone has held up.

For context, the five starters on the Shocker men’s team – Ron Baker, Fred VanVleet, Tekele Cotton, Darius Carter and Evan Wessel – have played 68.1 percent of the available minutes. And we know that team has struggled to find consistent reinforcement.

Adams isn’t crazy about her team’s seed or having to play on an opponent’s home floor in the first round again.

“The Wichita Eagle isn’t big enough for me to explain how I feel,” she said.

But she is not into looking for excuses or reasons why the Shockers can’t break through.

“We don’t have the tradition of winning in the NCAA Tournament so there’s still not a lot of respect there,” Adams said. “They don’t know who we are on the west coast. I think we are better than a 13-seed, absolutely. But I can’t focus on that and our players won’t focus on that. We’ll focus on our opponent. We’ll stay on our own little island and concentrate on basketball.”

Read more here: http://www.kansas.com/sports/spt-col...#storylink=cpy