Shocks @ SIU (Friday, Nov 18th) and @ Evansville (Sat, Nov 19th)

[1972Shocker]

MSU scores the final 4 points of the match to win an outright Valley title.

Congratulations to MSU. Running off 16 straight in this year's Valley after losing their first two Valley matches at home was impressive.

Also kudos to SIU for a great effort against MSU in a game that really meant nothing to them except pride (and perhaps a slight RPI boost) and in a game where they were playing very short-handed. They could have easily folded their tents after losing the 1st two sets. They showed a lot of character tonight.

[flyingMoose]

After Sunday's matches, this is the RPI Futures rankings.

34 Shockers
45 Northern Iowa
46 Missouri State

Southern Illinois has dropped out of the Top Sixty.

These rankings use last week's Pablo values and could change some with the Pablo that will be published Monday.

[flyingMoose]

RPIs from 21 November with last week's RPI in parentheses:

35 (37) Shockers
44 (45) Northern Iowa
46 (47) Missouri State
63 (57) Southern Illinois

Southern Illinois now has to win the Valley Tournament to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. They cannot earn an at-large bid.


The current winning percentages for the out-of-conference schedules:

63.9 Shockers
54.3 Missouri State
57.9 Northern Iowa
58.1 Southern Illinois

These numbers continue to keep Missouri State behind Northern Iowa in RPI. Fifty percent of the RPI is your opponent's record.

[1972Shocker]

Assuming UNI gets by Loyola in the 1st round game and Missouri State gets by the winner of the SIU-ILS match in the semi-finals I think that the Valley will get 3 teams in the NCAA Tournament.

If UNI and MSU lose those matches then they may well be in bubble territory.

I think the Shocks are in even if they lose their 1st match which is very possible cosnidering it will most likely be against UNI on their home court and with UNI having won 6 of 7 sets against the Shocks this year. However, UNI has faced the current iteration of this Shocker team yet. A very key element for the Shocks will be the health of Jody Larson who sat out the season finale agaisnt Evansville with an elbow injury. The fact that the opponent was Evansville makes it difficult to know whether Jody was unable to play or just did not need to play and could have if it was necerssary. Hopefully, Lambo will shed a little light on that on his radio show tonight. Then again he might want to keep UNI guessing about that. I would probably take the latter approach.

Not sure what kind of situation we would have if someone other than the Top 3 seeds wins the tournament and the auto-bid. Would that steal a bid from one of the Top 3?

[flyingMoose]

Not sure what kind of situation we would have if someone other than the Top 3 seeds wins the tournament and the auto-bid. Would that steal a bid from one of the Top 3?

It would definitely steal a bid from some bubble team, but not necessarily a Valley team. I think the Shockers are in and Missouri State trails Northern Iowa in the bubble pecking order. The Committee tends to heed the RPI, but there are no guarantees.

[1972Shocker]

It would definitely steal a bid from some bubble team, but not necessarily a Valley team. I think the Shockers are in and Missouri State trails Northern Iowa in the bubble pecking order. The Committee tends to heed the RPI, but there are no guarantees.

Last year their were only 8 conferences that received mulitple bids. This year I think their could be 10 conferences with mulitple bids with the Mountain West and AAC getting multiple bids.

So that means their will be 22 one-bid conferences. Of these 22 one-bid conferences 6 of those teams could get at-large bids based on current RPI's.

So we have 16 spots going to auto-bids who otherwise probably wound not make the tournament (assuming all 10 of the reamining auto-bids go to teams that would otherwise be in the top 48). Theoretically, the remaining 48 teams in the field will consist of the Top 48 teams subject to any auto-bids won by sub-48 ranked teams which in theory could be as many as 16 consisting of the 10 multi-bid conferenes and the 6 single-bid conferences that have a team in the Top 48 at this point.

How many auto-bids could be stolen by sub-48 ranked teams from these 16 conferences is difficult to predict. But I doubt that their would be very many, if any. If none, and assuming that the committee goes stricktly by RPI, then a Top-48 RPI should get you in.

So if you are sitting in the 43 to 48 range (like UNI and MSU) you certainly don't want any auto-bids stolen by sub-48 RPI teams and you also hope the selection committee stays pretty much within the confines of the RPI rankings (which is certainly not assured).

Here are the teams ranked from 41 to 50 in the current RPI:
41. Baylor (Big 12)
42. Miami OH (Mid-American)
43. Southern Cal (Pac-12)
44. Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley)
45. Washington State (Pac-12)
46. Missouri State (Missouri Valley)
47. Georgia Tech (ACC)
48. Colorado State (Mountain West)
49. Temple (AAC)
50. Illinois (Big 10)

I agree that the Shocks should be in regardless of what happens in the Valley Tournament although there would be some tension on selection Sunday. I think if UNI beats Loyola in Round 1 and if MSU wins its semi-final match then the Valley will get 3 teams in. If either UNI or MSU loses those matches then things get very interesting for them. Best for the Valley for them to win those matches.

Illinois State is at 127 in the RPI and Loyola is at 159.

[1972Shocker]

No Lambo radio show this week.

[JayJ79]

Southern Illinois now has to win the Valley Tournament to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. They cannot earn an at-large bid.

well, there is nothing that explicitly states that they can't get an at-large bid. But it's not going to happen. And if it did, there would be an uproar amongst any of the bubble teams that got passed over.
heck, there were plenty of people that were pissed when UNI made it last year.

Aside from their team winning the MVC tournament, I don't think UNI or MSU fans can really sit comfortably on their chances of getting an at-large. WSU is probably safe, but you never know. They may spite the MVC so that the Big Ten can get 27 teams in or whatever.

[flyingMoose]

well, there is nothing that explicitly states that they can't get an at-large bid. But it's not going to happen.

Yes, practically speaking. Just way too many teams in front of them.

[flyingMoose]

Tabitha is named the Valley Player of the Week for the second consecutive week