2023 Volleyball Season

[flyingMoose]

As I understand it, RPI is used as the primary tool for choosing at large teams, unless and until a P5 conference team appears to be undervalued. At that point they will begin to factor in the positive additions of the KPI to bolster the curious P5 team. This also works the other way, so that if a non P5 team is unusually bolstered by the RPI then the KPI can be factored in if, and only if, the new metric lowers the team in question to a ranking spot more justifiable given it's non P5 status. If the KPI strengthens the team then the metric must be thrown out, and the entire positioning refigured, most notably at this point by individual input behind closed doors, to prevent tampering.

I hope that clears it up.

You are saying KPI is used if necessary to ensure that more P5 teams make the Dance?

[Kung Wu]

Keep P5's In

[flyingMoose]

Not terribly long ago, someone wondered about the Shocker record v Pablo. Because of the small sample size, I decided to look at the entire conference schedule with "10%" bins.

Through October 14, we have -

50% - 9-6
60% - 10-4
70% - 11-1
80% - 7-4
90% - 6-0

This looks as expected except for the 80% bin where Pablo severely undervalues Florida Atlantic. They won several matches where they were underdogs in the 80% bin. (See v Rice this past Friday.) Bad pre-conference results and they are now getting it together? One of their better players is back in the lineup after being out for weeks with an injury? Who knows, maybe neither of the above.

[1972Shocker]

I watched all but about the first 10 points of the 5th set between UTSA and Norht Texas today. This match was played at North Texas. UTSA prevailed 15-10 after winning the first 2 serts then losing sets 3 and 4. What struck me most was the airplane hanger of a gym at North Texas. It was probably 50% smaller, and that my be generous, then any of the current City League school facilities. I would compare it to a lot of the small town high school gyms in Kansas. I think the ball hit the ceilling at least 4 times in that final set. Glad the Shocks are playing North Texas in Koch Arena this year but they will get to experience that next year.

https://meangreensports.com/faciliti...ball-center/22

I have to believe that makes recruiting a bit of a challenge although Texas is fertile recruiting territory.

[ShockTalk]

I watched all but about the first 10 points of the 5th set between UTSA and Norht Texas today. This match was played at North Texas. UTSA prevailed 15-10 after winning the first 2 serts then losing sets 3 and 4. What struck me most was the airplane hanger of a gym at North Texas. It was probably 50% smaller, and that my be generous, then any of the current City League school facilities. I would compare it to a lot of the small town high school gyms in Kansas. I think the ball hit the ceilling at least 4 times in that final set. Glad the Shocks are playing North Texas in Koch Arena this year but they will get to experience that next year.

https://meangreensports.com/faciliti...ball-center/22

I have to believe that makes recruiting a bit of a challenge although Texas is fertile recruiting territory.

So, is that ceiling high enough, particularly with the large beams? What a cracker box.

[WuDrWu]

I watched all but about the first 10 points of the 5th set between UTSA and Norht Texas today. This match was played at North Texas. UTSA prevailed 15-10 after winning the first 2 serts then losing sets 3 and 4. What struck me most was the airplane hanger of a gym at North Texas. It was probably 50% smaller, and that my be generous, then any of the current City League school facilities. I would compare it to a lot of the small town high school gyms in Kansas. I think the ball hit the ceilling at least 4 times in that final set. Glad the Shocks are playing North Texas in Koch Arena this year but they will get to experience that next year.

https://meangreensports.com/faciliti...ball-center/22

I have to believe that makes recruiting a bit of a challenge although Texas is fertile recruiting territory.

Shocks played a tourney there a few years ago (checking schedules.....2018) where we lost to SFA and Cal Poly but beat North Texas. I was on an unrelated trip and managed to carve out some time to watch the Shocks play. Yeah, it's a high school gym, and not a very good high school gym to be honest. Thinking smaller schools in the area.....Halstead, Eureka and Collegiate would be embarrassed to have to play home games there. And the ceiling is WAY low. It's bad. So bad in fact, I think the conference has to say something about it. Conference foes shouldn't have to play there. It is not serious volleyball.

[flyingMoose]

October 16

Here are the weekly odds and ends, mostly from VT.

a)
faktorsports.com/

New KPI rankings are out. Select NCAA DI - Women's Volleyball - 2023 to view them. Not sure how else to directly link to it.

Truthfully, I am disappointed (yet not surprised) that there hasn't been much publication about how the KPI rankings will impact the selection committee. I think that's important to clarify going forward. Adding new criteria to the selection process, particularly as a primary criteria for determining bids to the NCAA Tournament, is a big deal.

Here are the biggest disagreements between KPI and RPI:

Teams that KPI ranks *better* than RPI

Wichita State (+16) [NOTE: largest discrepancy]
...


b)
The NCAA RPI through October 15 via figstats.

30 SMU
54 Rice
60 Shockers


c)
Here are the top Pablo numbers in the AAC with last week's Pablo in parentheses.

6440 (6310) SMU
6085 (6135) Shockers
5905 (6040) Rice
5510 (5410) East Carolina
5420 (5535) Tulsa
5345 (5255) USF
5315 (5245) North Texas

Pablo is structured so that 5000 is an average team.


d)
The VT geek that calculates an end-of-season RPI using the Pablo values has -

25 (26) SMU
49 (32) Rice
53 (53) Shockers

and % chance of finishing in the T45 in RPI -

SMU - 99.6%
Rice - 43.2%
Shockers - 21.6%


e)
Here are selected comments from this week's Bracketology-

Most impactful matches of the week

Rice at SMU (x2)

Rice at SMU - Rice is firmly on the bubble. They need to win at least one of these to feel good about their chances to make the tournament. SMU is playing for tournament seed positioning.


FIRST 6 TEAMS OUT:
Southern California, Hawaii, Rice, Wichita State, South Alabama, Missouri

[Kung Wu]

And the ceiling is WAY low. It's bad. So bad in fact, I think the conference has to say something about it. Conference foes shouldn't have to play there. It is not serious volleyball.

Here's a vid from their barn ...

[flyingMoose]

The last of the VT stuff is in. See above in the original post for the October 16 stuff.


The Shockers need to run the table including a sweep of Rice on the last weekend and need a split this weekend between Rice and SMU. Otherwise, the hopes are slim.

[1972Shocker]

The Shocks RPI is not being helped by their non-conference opponents who are 75-74 collectively for a 50.3% winning percentage. Good chance that falls below .500 by the end of the year.

Update: Shocker non-con opponents through Saturday, October 21 are right at .500 at 103-103 collectively. Suprisingly, Illinois State is helping that by going 9-2 in the Valley so far after going 2-10 in their non-con. However, Bradley is not helpng by going 2-9 in the Valley so far after going 7-6 in their non-con.

[1972Shocker]

Some pretty good handiwork. Kind of hard to pick a favorite. I like Frosty's. Sophia's dracula is pretty unique as well. Hope the Shocks continue to carve up there AAC opponents.

[WuDrWu]

Who is missing.....I don't think I see Maddie anywhere. It's great seeing the kids have fun.

[flyingMoose]

October 23

Here are the weekly odds and ends, mostly from VT.

a)
RPIs and KPIs

The NCAA RPI through October 22 via figstats and the KPI via faktorsports.com/

22/24 SMU
48/39 Shockers
56/57 Rice


(fm VT)
Where RPI and KPI disagree

KPI likes:

Hawaii (a full 10 spots better)
Wichita State (+9)
... others ...


b)
Here are the top Pablo numbers in the AAC with last week's Pablo in parentheses.

6410 (6440) SMU
6155 (6085) Shockers
5915 (5905) Rice
5495 (5510) East Carolina

Pablo is structured so that 5000 is an average team.



c)
The VT geek that calculates an end-of-season RPI using the Pablo values has -

26 (25) SMU
47 (53) Shockers
49 (49) Rice

and % chance of finishing in the T45 in RPI -

SMU - 100.0% (99.6%)
Rice - 40.8% (43.2%)
Shockers - 40.6% (21.6%)


d)
Here are selected comments from this week's Bracketology-

LAST 7 TEAMS IN:
Georgia, Hawaii, Wake Forest, Miami-FL, Wichita State, TCU, Iowa State,

FIRST 8 TEAMS OUT:
Indiana, UCLA, Rice, Long Beach State, Drake, Washington, Colorado, Loyola Marymount


Palo Alto Regional (#3)

(1) Stanford

(4) Georgia Tech

(2) Texas vs. Colgate*
Stephen F. Austin vs. (7) SMU

(3) Arkansas vs. UMKC
Wichita State vs. (6) Kansas

[WuDrWu]

Indiana, 2 spots ahead of WSU as of the last NCAA RPI, loses at #93 Illinois, whom was defeated at home by the Shocks.

Certainly didn't hurt our at large chances last evening, albeit in 5 tough sets, 24 (18) 23 (10) 10

[1972Shocker]

RH: Podcast with Morgan Weber, Gabi Maas on Shocker Volleyball

Morgan Weber and Gabi Maas get us set up for the AAC title chase by discussing why the back row is so effective, the importance of splitting at SMU and the personality required to play libero. Weber reveals who she inherited her love of shoes from and her favorites. Maas tells us why she is excited for the mail to arrive. We wrap up with advice for high school athletes and how they can lock in on what's important in a college experience.

Weber is a junior from Dike, Iowa. Maas is a sophomore from Aurora, Colo. Gabi leads WSU with 289 digs and 15 aces. Weber has 11 aces and 166 digs.

Listen to the podcast