MVC Tournament and NCAA At-Large Possibilities

[1972Shocker]

UNI (14-0, 25-1), MSU (11-3, 18-7), CU (11-4, 16-11), WSU (9-5, 15-9) and ILS (9-6, 17-10) have all clinched a spot in the MVC Tournament. The remaining five teams with records ranging from 5-10 to 2-12 are all technically alive for the 6th and final spot but I would expect that it will come down to Indiana State (5-10, 13-13) and Drake (5-10, 9-20).

Creighton has UNI, Bradley and Drake remaining on the road. CU is capable of giving UNI a match but I just don't see the Panthers losing at home.

Illinois State has quietly moved into 5th place and are only 1/2 game behind the Shocks. The Redbirds have done this by not losing to any of the teams in the bottom half. They have also played the top half tough with the Shocks being the only team that has swept the Redbirds. Illinois State host the Shocks and the Bears on the last weekend of the regular season.

Seeding for the Tournament is still up in the air, although UNI will undoubtedly be the No. 1 seed. I don't believe the Shocks have a reasonable shot at the #2 seed at this point although that is technically a possibilty. Realistically, I think the best the Shocks could do would be a #3 seed and the worst they could do even if they tie with ILS would be #4 seed.

The most likely scenario for CU is that they lose to UNI and win over Bradley and Drake which would put them at 13-5. The Shocks need to win out over SIU, Evansville, ILS and INS to tie Creighton for 3rd place. In that scenario I believe the Shocks would win the tiebreaker over CU. The 1st tiebreaker is head-to-head. Since the Shocks and Jays split we move to the 2nd tiebreaker which is a Power Rating based on conference matches. Despite the loss to Evansville the Shocks would win this due to the road win over Missouri State. CU was swept by MSU this year. The road win at MSU will be worth 18 points while the loss to Evansville only cost the Shocks 6 to 8 points. So the Shocks would have a 10 to 12 point advantage in the power rating (in this scenario).

Is a 3rd seed vs a 4th seed really that important. IMHO it is. The #3 seed gets the #6 seed in the 1st round of the MVC Tournament while the #4 seed plays the #5 seed. There seems to be a significant drop off between the #5 team (currently ILS at 9-6) and #6 team (currently either INS or DU both at 5-10). Also, the #3 seed if they win in the 1st round will get to play the #2 seed (most likely MSU) in the semi-finals while the #4 seed gets the privilege of playing UNI in the semis.

If the Shocks can win out and make the finals of the MVC Tournament then I think they have a decent shot at an at-large berth in NCAA Tournament. The MVC earned 4-spots in the NCAA Tournament last year but I don't see that happening this year. They will get 2 for sure (probably UNI and MSU) with a good shot at a 3rd. That potential 3rd spot looks to be coming down to either the Shocks or Creighton (with ILS potentially playing the spoiler).

Our best shot at this would be for UNI to knock of CU this coming Friday and for the Shocks to win their 4 remaining matches. So we should be rooting like hell for UNI next Friday and we need to root like hell that the Shocks can run the table over its 4 remaining matches. Final home weekend coming up vs SIU and Evansville. Evansville is senior night plus we owe them some payback. Then its the following weekend we close out against ILS, which is shaping up to be a very important match, and INS.

A lot still to play for.

:poster_shocks:

[JayJ79]

6th seed will likely be Drake. They have a likely win left on their schedule (@ Bradley), while Indiana State will likely lose their remaining 3 conference matches (ILS, MSU, WSU) though they are at home, so they could pull out a win against the Redbirds.

[flyingMoose]

Use this for "future reference." I have no idea how the other "future reference" got me to the RPI table.

http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/weeklyrpi/2011WVBrpi1.html

[1972Shocker]

6th seed will likely be Drake. They have a likely win left on their schedule (@ Bradley), while Indiana State will likely lose their remaining 3 conference matches (ILS, MSU, WSU) though they are at home, so they could pull out a win against the Redbirds.

Drake's loss to Bradley and and Indiana State's win over Illinois State has changed the dynamics somewhat. Bradley is now in the hunt for that #6 seed with its wins over Drake and Creighton at home this weekend.

Indiana State (6-12) is assured of a tie for 6th even if it loses its final two matches to MSU and WSU which is the most likely outcome. If it could pull an upset in either one of these matches it will be the #6 seed.

The best Drake and Bradley can do is tie for 6th. Drake (5-12) must win at home vs Creighton and Bradley (4-12) must win on the road over both Southern Illinois (3-13) and Evansville (3-13). I still say Evansville is better than its record shows. SIU and EU are playing for fun. They have nothing to lose and no pressure.

If we do end up with a 2 or 3 way tie, the Power Rating system will probably determine the #6 seed as these teams all split their regular season matches. Right now Bradley has the best win (Creighton) of his group. However, a Drake win over Creighton would match that. The Power Rating results can be greatly effected by how the top 5 teams fare this weekend.

Illinois State could actually move into the #4 seed ahead of Creighton if they could somehow sweep WSU and MSU at home this weekend and Creighton loses to Drake. Not likely, but not impossible either. MSU has not faltered against lower-rated opponents this year, but WSU lost to Evansville on the road and Creighton has lost to Bradley on the road.

What this situation does do is put MSU (@ INS and ILS), WSU (@ ILS and INS) and Creighton (@ DU) up against highly motivated opponents on the road for this final weekend of league play. So these matches will not be without some supsense and importance.

[1972Shocker]

Use this for "future reference." I have no idea how the other "future reference" got me to the RPI table.

http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/weekly...11WVBrpi1.html

Creighton's loss to #221 Bradley is not factored in those RPI's and will no doubt put a significant hurt on the Bluejays #53 ranking.

I think they probably gave everything they had agaisnt UNI on Friday and let Bradley sneak up and steal one from them on Saturday.

I think Creighton probably has to win the MVC Tournament to make the dance. I also think they are capable of doing that if they get hot and can stay focused.

I think the Shocks have a decent shot at an at-large if they can make the Tournament Championship game unless the opponent is Creighton in that game and then that game would become a winner-takes-all match as far as an NCAA appearance is concerned.

This assumes the Shocks can take care of business aqainst ILS and INS on the road this weekend and actually make it to the championship game (which probably means they have to go through MSU in the semi-finals).

[flyingMoose]

Creighton's loss to #221 Bradley is not factored in those RPI's and will no doubt put a significant hurt on the Bluejays #53 ranking.

Yes, the link is of interest, not the numbers, as they are a week old now. But sometime later this evening, the current RPIs reflecting the weekend matches will be posted.

[1972Shocker]

I would sure like to see the Shocks win out through the MVC Tournament and eliminate the need to worry about RPI's.

However, that would seem to be a long shot this year. Winning 3 matches in 3 days which would probably include matches with MSU and UNI.

[flyingMoose]

The RPIs of interest through matches of 13 November:

6 - UNI
43 - Missouri State
49 - Shocks
58 - Creighton

Last week, the Shocks were 48.

[JayJ79]

WSU currently #9 in attendance

http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/wis/sports/w-volley/auto_pdf/2011-12/misc_non_event/Attendance.pdf

(not really on topic, but I didn't feel like creating a new thread)

[The Mad Hatter]

WSU currently #9 in attendance

http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/wis/sports/w-volley/auto_pdf/2011-12/misc_non_event/Attendance.pdf

(not really on topic, but I didn't feel like creating a new thread)

Here are the teams behind us:

10. Washington is currently averaging 2,509 and has one home match remaining. They would need a crowd of 2,740+ to beat our average.
11. Purdue is currently averaging 2,418 and has no home matches remaining.
12. Stanford is currently averaging 2,365 and has 3 home matches remaining. They would need average crowds of 3,177+ to beat our average.
13. Iowa State is currently averaging 2,332 and has 2 home matches remaining. They would need average crowds of 3,405+ to beat our average.
14. UNI is currently averaging 2,319 and has 3 home matches remaining (if the Valley tournament counts). They would need to average 3,567+ to beat our average.

[JayJ79]

14. UNI is currently averaging 2,319 and has 3 home matches remaining (if the Valley tournament counts). They would need to average 3,567+ to beat our average.

UNI will not be playing 3 matches in the conference tournament, as they have clinched the #1 seed and a first round bye.
However, they are in a good position to host for the first weekend of the NCAA tourney, which would mean at least one (and hopefully two) more home matches.

Don't know if NCAA tournament matches are included in those attendance averages though.

[JayJ79]

also, out of curiousity, I shot a quick email to the addy listed on the attendance report re: conference (and NCAA) tournament matches, and received this response:

Hi Jay -yes, any home matches a team plays, including tournaments, will count toward those totals.

Thanks!
Jenn

[flyingMoose]

Through matches of 20 November:

RPIs

6 UNI
42 Missouri State
46 Shockers
61 Creighton


Pablo Rankings

22 Northern Iowa
43 Shockers
51 Missouri State
97 Creighton
134 Illinois State
170 Bradley
173 Evansville
176 Indiana State
195 Drake
233 Southern Illinois


My guesses for the NCAA tournament are that 1) UNI is absolutely in, 2) Missouri State is in unless they lose to Creighton and then who knows, 3) Shockers are in unless they lose to Indiana State and then they are out, and 4) Creighton is in only if they win the tournament.

[1972Shocker]

My guesses for the NCAA tournament are that 1) UNI is absolutely in, 2) Missouri State is in unless they lose to Creighton and then who knows, 3) Shockers are in unless they lose to Indiana State and then they are out, and 4) Creighton is in only if they win the tournament.

1) No doubt about it. UNI is in.

2) I think MSU is in. Unless Indiana State can upset the Shocks and the Bears which I think is highly unlikely. MSU can only lose to Creighton in the finals. In that case CU in as tournament champs, MSU in and WSU out.

3) Agree that a Shocker loss to INS knocks them out. A Shocker loss to MSU leaves them squarely on the bubble. A Shocker win over MSU probably puts them in unless Creighton gets by ILS and UNI and the Shocks lose to Creighton in the finals. I that happens I think the Shocks are out. If the Shocks can get to the finals and lose to UNI I think they are in.

4) Probably. Although if they get to the finals they will have a win over UNI on the road which would give there RPI a big boost. Not sure if that would be enough to move them ahead of the Shocks for at-large consideration or not.

My bottom line view is the Shocks need to defeat Indiana State and then match or exceed anything Creighton does. If they both lose in the semi-finals the Shocks will be on the bubble. If the Shocks makes the finals and Creighton does not, then the Shocks are probably in. If Creighton makes the finals (meaning they pick up a win over UNI) and the Shocks don't Creighton might move ahead of the Shocks for at-large consideration even if they lose in the finals. If they both make the finals its a winner take all as far as an NCAA berth is concerned.

I think the Shocks get by Indiana State. A semi-final match against Missouri State is a toss-up. A finals match against Creighton (if that happens) would also be a toss-up.

Best outcome for the Shocks outside of winning the tournament is a finals match against Northern Iowa.

The Shocks have not done particularly well in MVC Tournament play. Let's hope that changes this year.

:poster_shocks:

[JayJ79]

UNI is in. but they are playing for a prospective tournament seed and hosting opportunity (hopefully. they definitely have the RPI (as of now) and such required for a seed, and decent enough attendance average. the only snag is scheduling conflict. (UNI FB is hosting a playoff game at 4 p.m. that Saturday, and UNI mens basketball has a home game that night at 7). the only way a Fri./Sat. (the preferred dates) setup would work would involve playing the second round match at the same time as the football game, which is possible, but not ideal)

Not that any of you really care about UNI's situation. haha.

As far as the RPI analysis, the one thing I want to add is that I've heard that the RPI doesn't really take into account home vs. road matchups. i could be misinformed, though.