At large bid? Devils advocate.

[jdmee]

It's not just about getting there, it's about playing at least .500 ball once you get there.

Your final sentence is confusing to me (I know...it isn't hard to confuse SHOXMVC...I know). I'm sure Duke, KU, Kentucky, Syracuse, & about 10 others have high expectations to play better than .500 once they get there. I also don't think playing .500 is a reasonably attainable goal for many of the participants of the dance...just MO.

To play at least .500 in the NCAA you have to win the first game one. Do that and you are guaranteed .500 ball.

Lets ignore the play-in games. There are 64 teams in the Tourney with 32 teams guaranteed to play at least .500.

There are a few games that are likely to go either way (8 v 9, 7 v 10). And a few that upsets are mildly surprising (6 v 11, 5 v 12). The unlikely upsets are the 4v13 and 3v14. And the rarely and never upsets in the 2v15 and 1v16 games. Besides the 32 guaranteed winners there are 10-12 other teams that have a chance.

In summary, Half the teams play .500 in the NCAA and there are more teams going into the NCAA thinking they have a chance to win at least one game 42-44, than have no chance 22-20.

I think Aargh is saying the Shocks should be at least in the 42-44 that have a chance if not the 32 that do win a game in the tourney.

[ShockerFever]

I love some people's reasoning for our at-large case is that.. hey.. our two losses are to Top 10 teams.

Ok.. so?

I'm afraid we're gonna be on the danger line without a marquee win. The bracketbuster game will be important. Let's hope and pray we get a good RPI club, otherwise I think it's lights out - St. Louis or bust.

16-2 would be quite a feat that I still just don't see happening. I'm assuming most would say those losses would be at MSU and at CU. What about at UNI? Are you really that confident at SIU? How about at Illinois State? Hell, Evansville still haunts me.

16-2 would shock the hell outta me. Not to say that I'm not hoping and praying for it, but even in a weak league, that's really hard to do.

Your reverse karma is coming off a little strong. We have an at-large team this year. If we keep playing like we're capable of and don't get an at-large, we got snubbed.

Uh, it's not reverse karma. It doesn't matter whether you think were an at large team or not. It's all about what the committee sees and unfortunately all they see is a lackluster resume absent of quality wins. I personally feel like we are playin like an at large team too right now but our proof to those who don't watch us every game is not there.

What does "playing like an at large team" mean to you? How many losses does that entail?

Please understand that I'm trying to keep things in perspective and looking at the WHOLE picture.

[SirShoxAlot]

I love some people's reasoning for our at-large case is that.. hey.. our two losses are to Top 10 teams.

Ok.. so?

I'm afraid we're gonna be on the danger line without a marquee win. The bracketbuster game will be important. Let's hope and pray we get a good RPI club, otherwise I think it's lights out - St. Louis or bust.

16-2 would be quite a feat that I still just don't see happening. I'm assuming most would say those losses would be at MSU and at CU. What about at UNI? Are you really that confident at SIU? How about at Illinois State? Hell, Evansville still haunts me.

16-2 would shock the hell outta me. Not to say that I'm not hoping and praying for it, but even in a weak league, that's really hard to do.

Your reverse karma is coming off a little strong. We have an at-large team this year. If we keep playing like we're capable of and don't get an at-large, we got snubbed.

Uh, it's not reverse karma. It doesn't matter whether you think were an at large team or not. It's all about what the committee sees and unfortunately all they see is a lackluster resume absent of quality wins. I personally feel like we are playin like an at large team too right now but our proof to those who don't watch us every game is not there.

What does "playing like an at large team" mean to you? How many losses does that entail?

Please understand that I'm trying to keep things in perspective and looking at the WHOLE picture.

An at-large team beats the teams they're supposed to, giving them margin to lose a few games to higher quality teams. An at-large team most likely has a surprising win, being their trademark win of the season.

We're 1-2. But there have been plenty of quasi-major teams without trademark wins who played well enough in conference play to receive at-large bids. I think we're good enough to be one of them, especially with all the positive press circulating around Wichita State.

It seems that we're on the same page, we're just wording it differently. I get where you're coming from in doubting the Selection Committee's eyes, and I'm skeptical, too. You just seem a little more skeptical.

[1979Shocker]

RealTimeRPI has us going 15-3 in the conference with losses to CU, UNI, and MSU on the road and MSU going 17-1 with their only loss being at WSU.

[ShockerFever]

Let's crown MSU's asses.

[RoyalShock]

I think if we were to do ridiculously well in conference, such as going 17-1, or maybe 16-2, and making the tournament final (presumably avoiding an RPI 150+ loss), that "body of work" would be enough to warrant an at-large bid..

For some insurance it is imperative that we get a top-50 RPI win. That could be MSU or our BracketBuster opponent. But if the selection committee uses RPI for anything, it's to find a quality win (and conversely, identify bad losses).

[wsu789]

Has a Valley team in the last 20 years ever gone 16-2, 15-3, or, heck, even 14-4, and NOT made the tournament?

Since I don't have the skills to check myself, I'll just make a bold-arse, vague prediction and declare that instances of that have been few and far between.

History would say, I think, that if we win the league, we are in. Of course, we could go 14-4 or better and not win the league, so...

[WuDrWu]

I don't think there has been a regular season champion in the Valley that has ever NOT made the NCAA tournament.

I could be wrong, but the postseason tournament is only about 30 years old I think, and the regular season champ before that would have gotten the bid.

It could be just since 91 when the tournament moved to St Louis, but I am pretty sure that's correct. There is no accounting for a year where nobody COULD have got an at large invitation, but the same team won the post season as the regular season so we didn't have to find out.

[vbird53]

I don't think there has been a regular season champion in the Valley that has ever NOT made the NCAA tournament.

I could be wrong, but the postseason tournament is only about 30 years old I think, and the regular season champ before that would have gotten the bid.

It could be just since 91 when the tournament moved to St Louis, but I am pretty sure that's correct. There is no accounting for a year where nobody COULD have got an at large invitation, but the same team won the post season as the regular season so we didn't have to find out.

Creighton tied for the Valley title in 2009 and did not get a bid. UNI won the tourney, and was the only rep.

[shox1989]

If we could get a couple of rpi top 50 wins (maybe MOST and the BB) then I think we are in the dance with a regular season championship and a 14-4 or better MVC record.

If we don't get any rpi top 50 wins (we have none now) then we give the committee a reason to ignore us even though our rpi could be like 29 (with a 14-4 conference record) or even better (with a 15-3 or better conference record).

I don't think ANY conference regular season champion with a rpi of 30 or better has EVER been left out. But I would hate to be the first.

In fact I don't believe ANY conference regular season champion with a rpi of 40 or better has ever been left out. The teams in the 20s (very rare) and 30s (pretty rare- always a non-BCS team) that have been left out have not been regular conference season champions.

BTW- Unlike WSU and MOST, UNI does have a top 50 win. New Mexico is now 48 in the latest warren nolan rpi.

[shox1989]

I don't think there has been a regular season champion in the Valley that has ever NOT made the NCAA tournament.

I could be wrong, but the postseason tournament is only about 30 years old I think, and the regular season champ before that would have gotten the bid.

It could be just since 91 when the tournament moved to St Louis, but I am pretty sure that's correct. There is no accounting for a year where nobody COULD have got an at large invitation, but the same team won the post season as the regular season so we didn't have to find out.

Creighton tied for the Valley title in 2009 and did not get a bid. UNI won the tourney, and was the only rep.

The problem in 2009 is that the Valley had 3 teams on the edge of the bubble, but nobody had a strong resume.

CU and UNI tied for first with 14-4 records. CU had a rpi of 46 (definite bubble territory), UNI was 58 and Illinois St. (3rd in the Valley with a 11-7 record) was 52.

The conference was 9th in rpi in 2009, one of our worst showings in several years.

UNI beat ISU in the championship game to get the auto bid. CU had lost to Ill. St in the semis. Maybe if CU had made it to the championship game they might have had a chance. But losing in the semis with only 1 top 50 rpi win and an overall rpi of 46 just wasn't good enough.

[RoyalShock]

And don't forget, CU got absolutely plastered by Osiris and Co. in the semis (one day after 1.9). That was about as bad of a last game before Selection Sunday CU could have had.

[vbird53]

And don't forget, CU got absolutely plastered by Osiris and Co. in the semis (one day after 1.9). That was about as bad of a last game before Selection Sunday CU could have had.

kinda like our baseball team getting creamed by the Redbirds in the championship game this last year. I think that if we had even been competitive, we would have earned a bid.

[ShockerInKC]

Another thing to consider is the timing of the losses.
Last year we had a couple bad losses down the stretch of the season. If we can avoid losses in the last 10 regular season games, plus get to the championship game of the tourney, I'd say we're in.

I think part of the 'eye' test (the part that doesn't simply check if the name on the jersey is from a big 6 conference) is good wins / bad losses in the last 10 games.