At large bid? Devils advocate.

[bhuber]

Just looking for thoughts from others about this scenario.

What if the Shox lose 2 games in the Valley this year during the regular season and end up losing in the Championship of the Valley Tournament. That would give us 5 losses on the year. Does anyone think we will get in as an at large to the big dance? My feeling is it would depend on what we do with the Bracket Buster game.

If we win Bracket Buster game we are in...if we lose we are out? Just my opinion.

Even with the rest of the Valley being weak to average at best other then maybe Missouri State...I think it is a bit optimistic to think we will run the table.

[vbird53]

Re: At large bid? Devils advocate.

Just looking for thoughts from others about this scenario.

What if the Shox lose 2 games in the Valley this year during the regular season and end up losing in the Championship of the Valley Tournament. That would give us 5 losses on the year. Does anyone think we will get in as an at large to the big dance? My feeling is it would depend on what we do with the Bracket Buster game.

If we win Bracket Buster game we are in...if we lose we are out? Just my opinion.

Even with the rest of the Valley being weak to average at best other then maybe Missouri State...I think it is a bit optimistic to think we will run the table.

There's a heckuva lotta basketball to be played before we have to worry about it.

[bhuber]

so true...so true.

[Capitol Shock]

Well, I wouldn't put anything past the selection committee given what has happened to other similar teams in the past. I think though, and very much hope that the conference winner will get an at large bid. And I think that we would provided we perform well with four losses or less in the conference and a first round win in the MVC tournament.

[Aargh]

My prediction before the season started was 16-2 in conference and an at large if needed. Shox haven't been quite as strong as I thought, but the Valley is weaker than I thought.

A team with 5 losses on the season that had UConn, SDSU, and LSU on the schedule should get in. LSU isn't much this year, but the Committee seems impressed by "names" on the schedule.

CU should be the tough W in St. Louis, even though I expect they will be the 3 seed. MSU (with their 7 or 8 healthy bodies) is going to be worn down before they attempt to play 3 games in 3 days.

Get the 1 seed and WSU doesn't play any team above the 4 seed until the Finals. I expect some separation between the top 3 teams and the rest of the league.

As Sub wouild say, "I'm not worried". Get ready for Marshall to be mentioned for every BCS opening that comes up at the end of the year.

[Capitol Shock]

That bothers me too...that Marshall's name will be brought up for every BCS coaching vacancy there is....why? Because we'll get very little coverage and respect during the season but as soon as it's over we'll get all sorts of publicity due to the success of our program and our coach.

Gotta go, coaches show is on.

[Ixiah]

Shox haven't been quite as strong as I thought, ...

Why?

Only two losses and both were away from Koch against strong teams. IIRC the average margin of the victory in the wins is something in the upper teens.

[BOBB]

Asking what we need to do now to get an "at large" bid is like an employee coming in and asking, "what is the minimum I can do and not get fired?"

Win the Valley tournament and let some other sucker program worry about good enough.

[Aargh]

Shox haven't been quite as strong as I thought, ...

Why?

Only two losses and both were away from Koch against strong teams. IIRC the average margin of the victory in the wins is something in the upper teens.

I had very high expectations.

The area where my expectations were the furthest off was in post play. Neither Stutz nor Durley are very close to what I was expecting of them this year.

In pre-season PoY predictions I mentioned that belonged to Durley if he wanted it, but that I thought Stutz would take it from him. So far, neither of those is happening.

[Awesome Sauce Malone]

Asking what we need to do now to get an "at large" bid is like an employee coming in and asking, "what is the minimum I can do and not get fired?"

Win the Valley tournament and let some other sucker program worry about good enough.

[Aargh]

Asking what we need to do now to get an "at large" bid is like an employee coming in and asking, "what is the minimum I can do and not get fired?"

Win the Valley tournament and let some other sucker program worry about good enough.

I see it the other way. I think winning the tourney is the minimum way to get in. My thinking is that the results over the course of a 4-month season are more important than the results of a 3-day tournament. It's easier to win a 3-day tournament than it is to earn a bid over the 30+ games before that tournament.

If a team earns an at large by their performance over the course of the season, then the results of a 3-day tournament aren't that critical. If a team doesn't earn an invitation over the course of the season then their only way in is to win the 3-day tournament.

A team that has to rely on winning an automatic bid to get in is likely to be a one and done team. Check how Dana Altman got there with CU and how he did once he got there. A team that's earned an invitation is more likely to get a W in the Dance.

It's not just about getting there, it's about playing at least .500 ball once you get there.

[ShockerFever]

I love some people's reasoning for our at-large case is that.. hey.. our two losses are to Top 10 teams.

Ok.. so?

I'm afraid we're gonna be on the danger line without a marquee win. The bracketbuster game will be important. Let's hope and pray we get a good RPI club, otherwise I think it's lights out - St. Louis or bust.

16-2 would be quite a feat that I still just don't see happening. I'm assuming most would say those losses would be at MSU and at CU. What about at UNI? Are you really that confident at SIU? How about at Illinois State? Hell, Evansville still haunts me.

16-2 would shock the hell outta me. Not to say that I'm not hoping and praying for it, but even in a weak league, that's really hard to do.

[SHOXAAC]

Asking what we need to do now to get an "at large" bid is like an employee coming in and asking, "what is the minimum I can do and not get fired?"

Win the Valley tournament and let some other sucker program worry about good enough.

I see it the other way. I think winning the tourney is the minimum way to get in. My thinking is that the results over the course of a 4-month season are more important than the results of a 3-day tournament. It's easier to win a 3-day tournament than it is to earn a bid over the 30+ games before that tournament.

If a team earns an at large by their performance over the course of the season, then the results of a 3-day tournament aren't that critical. If a team doesn't earn an invitation over the course of the season then their only way in is to win the 3-day tournament.

A team that has to rely on winning an automatic bid to get in is likely to be a one and done team. Check how Dana Altman got there with CU and how he did once he got there. A team that's earned an invitation is more likely to get a W in the Dance.

It's not just about getting there, it's about playing at least .500 ball once you get there.

Aargh, we are dealing with a flawed, corrupted system. The NCAA isn't in the business of crowning their champion based on merit of the body of work; they are in it for the $$$scratch$$$.

Your second paragraph, with all due respect, doesn't hold water. The 3-day tournament is critical to about 75% of all conferences in terms of qualifying for the dance. We all know the BCS conferences are getting 5-8 teams in. I will make only one example (although I could make several more). In the Athlantic Sun Conference for instance, Belmont was the big winner in the non-con. Let's say they win their conference by 3 games and lose in the championship game to East Tennessee St. (who will probably finish in the middle of the conference). Belmont doesn't have a snowball chance of dancing. Do they deserve it more than East Tennessee St...yes. Take this example (x) at least 10. The train has long past this stop in time.

In reference to your third paragraph, again 75% of conferences have to have the mindset that they have to win the conference tourny. It's the only way the're getting in. This was done with impecable design. The NCAA tournament is the silly putty...which is in the hands of guess who...the NCAA. They have molded the dance with their own hands into a huge money grab & giving the appearance that enlarging the event is good for the sport. It's good for their pocket book.

Your final sentence is confusing to me (I know...it isn't hard to confuse SHOXMVC...I know). I'm sure Duke, KU, Kentucky, Syracuse, & about 10 others have high expectations to play better than .500 once they get there. I also don't think playing .500 is a reasonably attainable goal for many of the participants of the dance...just MO.

[Aargh]

I still see the Shox in great shape for getting an at-large this year. We were close last year and this year the team looks stronger.

If the Shox lose 4 games in the Valley this year, then they don't deserve an invite. The league is that weak.

If the only way we get into the Dance is by the auto bid, then we're just like all the insignificant schools in the insignificant conferences that get auto bids.

I'm not ready to join the ranks of fans who are happy to get into the tourney and go one and done. That's the realm of one-bid leagues where the only way in is the auto bid.

WCC, Horizon, and CUSA all have teams that can get at large bids out of leagues that generally look like one-bid conferences. I see no reason why WSU can't be the team in the Valley that's capable of getting an at large maybe 2 years out of 3 - or (worst case) 2 out of 4.

With that belief, getting the auto bid is the cheap way in and is the minimum requirement.

And I'm looking to average one win per invite.

[SirShoxAlot]

I love some people's reasoning for our at-large case is that.. hey.. our two losses are to Top 10 teams.

Ok.. so?

I'm afraid we're gonna be on the danger line without a marquee win. The bracketbuster game will be important. Let's hope and pray we get a good RPI club, otherwise I think it's lights out - St. Louis or bust.

16-2 would be quite a feat that I still just don't see happening. I'm assuming most would say those losses would be at MSU and at CU. What about at UNI? Are you really that confident at SIU? How about at Illinois State? Hell, Evansville still haunts me.

16-2 would shock the hell outta me. Not to say that I'm not hoping and praying for it, but even in a weak league, that's really hard to do.

Your reverse karma is coming off a little strong. We have an at-large team this year. If we keep playing like we're capable of and don't get an at-large, we got snubbed.