The line on tonight's game

[ShockerFever]

Considering Illinois State just got wiped at home to UNLV by 31, I'd say a loss at Illinois State will not look very good.

[ShockerPrez]

According to The Odds by Chad Millman (an interesting read almost completely related to college basketball sports betting, btw), what you just said is a common fallacy - that oddsmakers want to balance both sides and make 5% of the total action (i.e. 10% on the losing money).

However, I do agree with you for a number of reasons and personal experience that in the modern age of corporate-owned casinos that want to minimize volatility, they would try to balance the action on both sides.

It's my personal opinion that lines aren't swung or pushed by the "average bettor", but by big money coming in on one side. From what I've read and heard, the worst scenario for the books is where they set a line, it gets moved significantly by big bets, and they get "middled" by the early big money and late big money. There's one Super Bowl in particular from sometime in the last 10 years - I think it was the Titans - that blew up the sports books in Vegas because the line moved 5 or 7 points from opening to kickoff, and people were able to win on both sides.

Maybe I'm arguing semantics, but a 4 to 1 line means parity is 1 win out of 5. I think very highly of San Diego State, but that's a little excessive. If we can hang with UConn, we can win 3 out of 10 against SDSU.

I'm sure that it probably depends on how much the risk is, ie how much money they have on either side and how much they stand to lose, as to what line they put on a game. I know that the dudes setting these lines are getting paid a lot more money than me to set them, and live and breath the stuff. I'd be curious how much money is on a game like SDSU v Wichita State. They may not really care that much to spend too many resources in order to get a few extra pennies. I find this stuff fascinating and hope folks realize that the lines are set for business purposes, on what is going to give them the best chance at making the most money with the least amount of risk and not necessarily meant to predict the outcome of the game. So Shocker fans shouldn't feel it is a slap in the face.

[ShockerPrez]

And one thing I've learned, is that most bettors are wrong.

That is true. And most of the betters right now are betting on the Shocks. The line has dropped down to + 8.5. The oddsmakers are Vegas. The last time I checked that city has fared pretty well with gambling revenue. I would put my faith into the line more times than not. It's amazing how close they are most of the time.

Easiest money I ever made in Vegas was on the Shocks vs VCU in the Cessna Classic back in '96 I think. Shocks giving. 2.5, won by 20 or so.

I can say that there was so little action on that game, I think I moved the line with my $50 bet! :D

[ShockerFever]

And one thing I've learned, is that most bettors are wrong.

That is true. And most of the betters right now are betting on the Shocks. The line has dropped down to + 8.5. The oddsmakers are Vegas. The last time I checked that city has fared pretty well with gambling revenue. I would put my faith into the line more times than not. It's amazing how close they are most of the time.

Easiest money I ever made in Vegas was on the Shocks vs VCU in the Cessna Classic back in '96 I think. Shocks giving. 2.5, won by 20 or so.

I can say that there was so little action on that game, I think I moved the line with my $50 bet! :D

Memories..

[AndShock]

I hope none of you bet your life savings on this slam dunk.

[ShockerFever]

I hope none of you bet your life savings on this slam dunk.

I guess those people in Vegas do know what they're doing...

[shocker3]

I hope none of you bet your life savings on this slam dunk.

I guess those people in Vegas do know what they're doing...

Those guys didn't get rich by losing. The house always wins in the long run.