The line on tonight's game

[SHOXAAC]

10 points could easily happen if we have to start putting them on the line late. I've seen SDSU once and the who'd three times. Not enough info to know who wins.

What does "the who'd three times" mean? SDSU achilles heal is their FT shooting, so if that is the case, we might dodge a bullet.

[ShockerFever]

I don't EXPECT us to win, however I am hopeful that we will do what it takes during the course of the game to have a chance in the end. I don't believe we will lose by more than 10. A loss at SDSU will not a season ruin, just an opportunity lost. What a loss does do, is make Nick St., Bama A&M, LSU & the Canes must wins before the Valley march begins.

9-2 non con, 14 or 15 wins in the Valley, plus a BB win & getting to the STL finals will be enough to dance in March. Stay away from "bad" losses with the pre-season attention we have received, and we will be fine to be asked to dance.

Sounds like a repeat of last year all over again.

Not good.

[SHOXAAC]

I don't EXPECT us to win, however I am hopeful that we will do what it takes during the course of the game to have a chance in the end. I don't believe we will lose by more than 10. A loss at SDSU will not a season ruin, just an opportunity lost. What a loss does do, is make Nick St., Bama A&M, LSU & the Canes must wins before the Valley march begins.

9-2 non con, 14 or 15 wins in the Valley, plus a BB win & getting to the STL finals will be enough to dance in March. Stay away from "bad" losses with the pre-season attention we have received, and we will be fine to be asked to dance.

Sounds like a repeat of last year all over again.

Not good.

Were we on the top-anybody's radar last year...NO. Because of that if you follow my scenerio, as long as there is no "bad" losses, we will linger, at worst, in the "others getting votes" category.

[SB Shock]

I don't EXPECT us to win, however I am hopeful that we will do what it takes during the course of the game to have a chance in the end. I don't believe we will lose by more than 10. A loss at SDSU will not a season ruin, just an opportunity lost. What a loss does do, is make Nick St., Bama A&M, LSU & the Canes must wins before the Valley march begins.

9-2 non con, 14 or 15 wins in the Valley, plus a BB win & getting to the STL finals will be enough to dance in March. Stay away from "bad" losses with the pre-season attention we have received, and we will be fine to be asked to dance.

Sounds like a repeat of last year all over again.

Not good.

Were we on the top-anybody's radar last year...NO. Because of that if you follow my scenerio, as long as there is no "bad" losses, we will linger, at worst, in the "others getting votes" category.

Problem is in the MVC there will be at least 1 or 2 bad losses.

[SHOXAAC]

I don't EXPECT us to win, however I am hopeful that we will do what it takes during the course of the game to have a chance in the end. I don't believe we will lose by more than 10. A loss at SDSU will not a season ruin, just an opportunity lost. What a loss does do, is make Nick St., Bama A&M, LSU & the Canes must wins before the Valley march begins.

9-2 non con, 14 or 15 wins in the Valley, plus a BB win & getting to the STL finals will be enough to dance in March. Stay away from "bad" losses with the pre-season attention we have received, and we will be fine to be asked to dance.

Sounds like a repeat of last year all over again.

Not good.

Were we on the top-anybody's radar last year...NO. Because of that if you follow my scenerio, as long as there is no "bad" losses, we will linger, at worst, in the "others getting votes" category.

Problem is in the MVC there will be at least 1 or 2 bad losses.

The following would constitute a bad loss home or road:
Evansville, Indiana St., SIU, Drake & Bradley

3 or 4 losses to the following on the road will not hurt us:
Illinois St., UNI, MSU or Creighton

[ShockTalk]

I find all the double-digit talk humorous. No one is right and no one is wrong. It's all percentages/odds of what may happen.

You can't blame the pundits for expecting WSU to lose. WSU has a track record of struggling on the road, have not beaten a name team this year, playing a team who has beaten name opponents.

As a WSU fan you have to be kind of worried because there are some warning signs about this team may have trouble meeting pre-season expectations. This game will either increase those concerns or go along ways in extinguishing them.

Actually, I agree with SHOXMVC. I don't expect us to win. I also don't think we're better or equal to SDSU at this time. I was just making the arguement that with two quality programs, the one at home is, more likely than not, going to win and the probabililty to win by double digits is most certainly a fair chance. Just as it would be in the reverse, if played in Wichita. In this case, SDSU has a greater chance of winning by double digits over the Shox for two reasons. They're probably a little better at this time and they're at home. Doesn't mean WSU can't win and won't win by double digits at San Diego. Just less likely.

[Good News]

Money line is 4 to 1. I know how good SDSU is and would handicap them as the favorite, but 4 to 1 is where a 3-14 game in the tournament goes off. SDSU is not a 3, and we're definitely not a 14. Even on the road.

Arnold or Sam Rothstein must be involved.

[AndShock]

I don't EXPECT us to win, however I am hopeful that we will do what it takes during the course of the game to have a chance in the end. I don't believe we will lose by more than 10. A loss at SDSU will not a season ruin, just an opportunity lost. What a loss does do, is make Nick St., Bama A&M, LSU & the Canes must wins before the Valley march begins.

9-2 non con, 14 or 15 wins in the Valley, plus a BB win & getting to the STL finals will be enough to dance in March. Stay away from "bad" losses with the pre-season attention we have received, and we will be fine to be asked to dance.

Sounds like a repeat of last year all over again.

Not good.

Were we on the top-anybody's radar last year...NO. Because of that if you follow my scenerio, as long as there is no "bad" losses, we will linger, at worst, in the "others getting votes" category.

Problem is in the MVC there will be at least 1 or 2 bad losses.

The following would constitute a bad loss home or road:
Evansville, Indiana St., SIU, Drake & Bradley

3 or 4 losses to the following on the road will not hurt us:
Illinois St., UNI, MSU or Creighton

Evansville, SIU, and Indiana State are all looking to be better than Illinois State according to RPI Forecast.

[SHOXAAC]

Money line is 4 to 1. I know how good SDSU is and would handicap them as the favorite, but 4 to 1 is where a 3-14 game in the tournament goes off. SDSU is not a 3, and we're definitely not a 14. Even on the road.

Arnold or Sam Rothstein must be involved.

Black Sox scandal turns into Black & Gold scandal...take the bet.

[ShockerPrez]

The line is not set as a predictor of the outcome of the game. The line is set to ensure that there is an amount of action on each side, leaving the vigorish as the net to the bookies.

While a good line, theoretically would be where the score ends up, it ultimately depends on where the bookies believe the action will be, and adjusted to entice more action on the weaker side.

So I would ask, do you think this line entices more average bettors to take the points, or give the points?

I believe that vegas needs more action on the Shockers side with a line like this. And one thing I've learned, is that most bettors are wrong. So that would tells me that the Shockers are the strong play here.

Looking at the money line. I would say that the shocks would win this game 1 out of 4 times. That seems about right.

[SHOXAAC]

I don't EXPECT us to win, however I am hopeful that we will do what it takes during the course of the game to have a chance in the end. I don't believe we will lose by more than 10. A loss at SDSU will not a season ruin, just an opportunity lost. What a loss does do, is make Nick St., Bama A&M, LSU & the Canes must wins before the Valley march begins.

9-2 non con, 14 or 15 wins in the Valley, plus a BB win & getting to the STL finals will be enough to dance in March. Stay away from "bad" losses with the pre-season attention we have received, and we will be fine to be asked to dance.

Sounds like a repeat of last year all over again.

Not good.

Were we on the top-anybody's radar last year...NO. Because of that if you follow my scenerio, as long as there is no "bad" losses, we will linger, at worst, in the "others getting votes" category.

Problem is in the MVC there will be at least 1 or 2 bad losses.

The following would constitute a bad loss home or road:
Evansville, Indiana St., SIU, Drake & Bradley

3 or 4 losses to the following on the road will not hurt us:
Illinois St., UNI, MSU or Creighton

Evansville, SIU, and Indiana State are all looking to be better than Illinois State according to RPI Forecast.

RPI forcasts at this point are just like forcasting the weather. The forcast for today, by the way, was it might be sunny & it might be cloudy.

[AndShock]

I don't EXPECT us to win, however I am hopeful that we will do what it takes during the course of the game to have a chance in the end. I don't believe we will lose by more than 10. A loss at SDSU will not a season ruin, just an opportunity lost. What a loss does do, is make Nick St., Bama A&M, LSU & the Canes must wins before the Valley march begins.

9-2 non con, 14 or 15 wins in the Valley, plus a BB win & getting to the STL finals will be enough to dance in March. Stay away from "bad" losses with the pre-season attention we have received, and we will be fine to be asked to dance.

Sounds like a repeat of last year all over again.

Not good.

Were we on the top-anybody's radar last year...NO. Because of that if you follow my scenerio, as long as there is no "bad" losses, we will linger, at worst, in the "others getting votes" category.

Problem is in the MVC there will be at least 1 or 2 bad losses.

The following would constitute a bad loss home or road:
Evansville, Indiana St., SIU, Drake & Bradley

3 or 4 losses to the following on the road will not hurt us:
Illinois St., UNI, MSU or Creighton

Evansville, SIU, and Indiana State are all looking to be better than Illinois State according to RPI Forecast.

RPI forcasts at this point are just like forcasting the weather. The forcast for today, by the way, was it might be sunny & it might be cloudy.

This is true, but I'm always willing to look at percentages. Illinois State has about a 5% chance of having a Top 150 RPI (which is what happens when you schedule like them.) A loss to them could easily be a killer.

[Good News]

According to The Odds by Chad Millman (an interesting read almost completely related to college basketball sports betting, btw), what you just said is a common fallacy - that oddsmakers want to balance both sides and make 5% of the total action (i.e. 10% on the losing money).

However, I do agree with you for a number of reasons and personal experience that in the modern age of corporate-owned casinos that want to minimize volatility, they would try to balance the action on both sides.

It's my personal opinion that lines aren't swung or pushed by the "average bettor", but by big money coming in on one side. From what I've read and heard, the worst scenario for the books is where they set a line, it gets moved significantly by big bets, and they get "middled" by the early big money and late big money. There's one Super Bowl in particular from sometime in the last 10 years - I think it was the Titans - that blew up the sports books in Vegas because the line moved 5 or 7 points from opening to kickoff, and people were able to win on both sides.

Maybe I'm arguing semantics, but a 4 to 1 line means parity is 1 win out of 5. I think very highly of San Diego State, but that's a little excessive. If we can hang with UConn, we can win 3 out of 10 against SDSU.

[SHOXAAC]

I don't EXPECT us to win, however I am hopeful that we will do what it takes during the course of the game to have a chance in the end. I don't believe we will lose by more than 10. A loss at SDSU will not a season ruin, just an opportunity lost. What a loss does do, is make Nick St., Bama A&M, LSU & the Canes must wins before the Valley march begins.

9-2 non con, 14 or 15 wins in the Valley, plus a BB win & getting to the STL finals will be enough to dance in March. Stay away from "bad" losses with the pre-season attention we have received, and we will be fine to be asked to dance.

Sounds like a repeat of last year all over again.

Not good.

Were we on the top-anybody's radar last year...NO. Because of that if you follow my scenerio, as long as there is no "bad" losses, we will linger, at worst, in the "others getting votes" category.

Problem is in the MVC there will be at least 1 or 2 bad losses.

The following would constitute a bad loss home or road:
Evansville, Indiana St., SIU, Drake & Bradley

3 or 4 losses to the following on the road will not hurt us:
Illinois St., UNI, MSU or Creighton

Evansville, SIU, and Indiana State are all looking to be better than Illinois State according to RPI Forecast.

RPI forcasts at this point are just like forcasting the weather. The forcast for today, by the way, was it might be sunny & it might be cloudy.

This is true, but I'm always willing to look at percentages. Illinois State has about a 5% chance of having a Top 150 RPI (which is what happens when you schedule like them.) A loss to them could easily be a killer.

Yes, Ill. St. does schedule like an NAIA team at times, however my very uneducated opionion is if the Birds win out their non con...Montana St. (RPI-114), Ohio (70), Illinois-Chicago (220) 7 N.C.-Willmington (84), they will be in the top-150. But I hear what you are saying, a loss to the Birds wouldn't be good.

[ShockerFever]

And one thing I've learned, is that most bettors are wrong.

That is true. And most of the betters right now are betting on the Shocks. The line has dropped down to + 8.5. The oddsmakers are Vegas. The last time I checked that city has fared pretty well with gambling revenue. I would put my faith into the line more times than not. It's amazing how close they are most of the time.