Bracketbusters

[Uncle Rico]

We're less than 2 weeks away from the Bracketbusters announcement (Feb 1). I think this game could have a huge impact on our ability to get an at-large bid. A road win against a strong opponent with a high RPI would give a big boost to our RPI (not to mention just playing a high RPI boosts our strength of schedule, win or lose).

Here are the top RPI possibilities as I see them right now:

Butler - 24
Virg Commonwealth - 50
Iona - 75

A game at Butler would likely be the premier Bracketbuster event. If we can find a way to win these next 3 games, prior to the announcement, we'd be 20-3 with an RPI likely in the 30s and a chance for the premier matchup.

[Wuzee]

Re: Bracketbusters

We're less than 2 weeks away from the Bracketbusters announcement (Feb 1). I think this game could have a huge impact on our ability to get an at-large bid. A road win against a strong opponent with a high RPI would give a big boost to our RPI (not to mention just playing a high RPI boosts our strength of schedule, win or lose).

Here are the top RPI possibilities as I see them right now:

Butler - 24
William & Mary - 32
Old Dominion - 43
Virg Commonwealth - 50
Buffalo - 71
Iona - 75

A game at Butler would likely be the premier Bracketbuster event. If we can find a way to win these next 3 games, prior to the announcement, we'd be 20-3 with an RPI likely in the 30s and a chance for the premier matchup.

I'm psyched for a good matchup, too -- hopefully a road win that will bolster our at-large resume.

You can scratch W&M, Buffalo and ODU -- they're road teams this year, like us.

Add in Northeastern - 68 and Murray State - 77 (CBS Sports RPI numbers)

Keep in mind that this is still a very fluid situation, as losses by teams in the lesser conferences will bounce their RPI more than, say, North Carolina losing to Georgia Tech.

[pinstripers]

Murray State........or WKU, for that matter, might be a good home and away matchup down the road.

[Uncle Rico]

re:

Good catch, my bad. You are correct, scratch W&M, Buffalo, and ODU.
Northern Iowa would likely get one of those since UNI is hosting.

Here's a link to the BB's pool:

http://www.eyeonsportsmedia.com/2009/09/espn-announces-2010-braketbuster-pool.html

[pogo]

I think VCU would be a good matchup since it puts us in the EAST COAST BIAS areas. I think more coverage in east coast news. I could be wrong lord knows I have been wrong before.

[shockar25]

I think VCU would be a good matchup since it puts us in the EAST COAST BIAS areas. I think more coverage in east coast news. I could be wrong lord knows I have been wrong before.

That doesn't really help our RPI to play them, right? I'm not real familiar with the technical reasoning for the Bracket Busters, but wasn't it so that teams on the bubble could get a good RPI matchup for their resumes?

Of course, our RPI could change a lot too before then, but we are better in the RPI right now thatn VCU I would think, right?

[Wuzee]

Here's a great spreadsheet over at the VCU board. Looks like he updates it every few days

http://www.vcuramnation.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=2089

[newshock1234]

I think VCU would be a good matchup since it puts us in the EAST COAST BIAS areas. I think more coverage in east coast news. I could be wrong lord knows I have been wrong before.

That doesn't really help our RPI to play them, right? I'm not real familiar with the technical reasoning for the Bracket Busters, but wasn't it so that teams on the bubble could get a good RPI matchup for their resumes?

Of course, our RPI could change a lot too before then, but we are better in the RPI right now thatn VCU I would think, right?

huh, VCU RPI is around 50, which is the about the same as ours. How does that not help us. It would give us a top 50 game, which we have very few, at this point.

[shockar25]

I think VCU would be a good matchup since it puts us in the EAST COAST BIAS areas. I think more coverage in east coast news. I could be wrong lord knows I have been wrong before.

That doesn't really help our RPI to play them, right? I'm not real familiar with the technical reasoning for the Bracket Busters, but wasn't it so that teams on the bubble could get a good RPI matchup for their resumes?

Of course, our RPI could change a lot too before then, but we are better in the RPI right now thatn VCU I would think, right?

huh, VCU RPI is around 50, which is the about the same as ours. How does that not help us. It would give us a top 50 game, which we have very few, at this point.

I thought with our win against NIU it was better than 50, but obviously I was wrong. My fault.

[vbird53]

As of today (1/21) I'd say our probable opponent is either VCU or Northeastern.

We're on the wrong side of it this year. There are more good road teams than home teams, so the pickens are small.

There are currently only 2 options for teams that we could play on the road with an rpi below 50: Butler and VCU. Northeastern is 69, Murray St. is 78, Utah St. is 79, Kent St. is 81.

The team that might get screwed out of all of this is Old Dominion. With a top 50 rpi, they could be paired with another team around 75-80.

[SubGod22]

I think VCU would be a good matchup since it puts us in the EAST COAST BIAS areas. I think more coverage in east coast news. I could be wrong lord knows I have been wrong before.

That doesn't really help our RPI to play them, right? I'm not real familiar with the technical reasoning for the Bracket Busters, but wasn't it so that teams on the bubble could get a good RPI matchup for their resumes?

Of course, our RPI could change a lot too before then, but we are better in the RPI right now thatn VCU I would think, right?

huh, VCU RPI is around 50, which is the about the same as ours. How does that not help us. It would give us a top 50 game, which we have very few, at this point.

I thought with our win against NIU it was better than 50, but obviously I was wrong. My fault.

I think you're right and it did move us to better than 50 and put us at 49. Not sure what happened last night to change things

[vbird53]

I think VCU would be a good matchup since it puts us in the EAST COAST BIAS areas. I think more coverage in east coast news. I could be wrong lord knows I have been wrong before.

That doesn't really help our RPI to play them, right? I'm not real familiar with the technical reasoning for the Bracket Busters, but wasn't it so that teams on the bubble could get a good RPI matchup for their resumes?

Of course, our RPI could change a lot too before then, but we are better in the RPI right now thatn VCU I would think, right?

huh, VCU RPI is around 50, which is the about the same as ours. How does that not help us. It would give us a top 50 game, which we have very few, at this point.

I thought with our win against NIU it was better than 50, but obviously I was wrong. My fault.

I think you're right and it did move us to better than 50 and put us at 49. Not sure what happened last night to change things

Pitt lost at home?

[SubGod22]

I think VCU would be a good matchup since it puts us in the EAST COAST BIAS areas. I think more coverage in east coast news. I could be wrong lord knows I have been wrong before.

That doesn't really help our RPI to play them, right? I'm not real familiar with the technical reasoning for the Bracket Busters, but wasn't it so that teams on the bubble could get a good RPI matchup for their resumes?

Of course, our RPI could change a lot too before then, but we are better in the RPI right now thatn VCU I would think, right?

huh, VCU RPI is around 50, which is the about the same as ours. How does that not help us. It would give us a top 50 game, which we have very few, at this point.

I thought with our win against NIU it was better than 50, but obviously I was wrong. My fault.

I think you're right and it did move us to better than 50 and put us at 49. Not sure what happened last night to change things

Pitt lost at home?

That doesn't help

[WuDrWu]

We should know by now that the BracketEliminator will not help our rpi. What it does do that is positive is give us a chance to get out of conference games and refresh everyone against new competition. Often times it gives us a decent game the next year as well, and, if we are fortunate, it will get us more prepared for the post season.

I see Butler, VCU, George Mason, Utah State and Northeastern fitting the bill. Anyone else will be very frustrating.

Butler is obviously the big prize. It is so important to keep the momentum right now because we really need one of the games, and frankly, we need it to be Butler.....and Butler needs us.

[RoyalShock]

- For NCAA at-large purposes, our RPI is only significant to the teams we play. (Good wins, bad losses). It takes care of itself with our own wins and losses. So forget about our RPI and focus on our opponent's RPI.

- Ideally, you want games with teams in the top 50. However, if we are around RPI 50, and go beat a similarly rated team on their home court, their RPI will take a hit. So, top 40 is the adjusted ideal.

- We must look to Butler and VCU as the only two potential opponents that will be a likely "good win", since their RPI's are in the top 50. If you go with the adjusted ideal, then it's likely Butler or bust.

- We have some work to do to get in position to draw Butler. Right now, Siena is in prime position with ODU not far behind. Don't expect the Saints to drop a game between now and then. We need to overtake them in the RPI, which I think is possible. We are at 48 with games @ 198, 114 and @ 168. Siena is at 37 with games vs 186, @ 227 and @ 175. If both of us win those games, I could see each team in the mid-40s. With ODU, they have games against W&M and NE on the road, both very losable games. In between those they have a home game vs. 254. We need them to drop one of the losable ones.

DISCLAIMER - This assumes that RPI is the primary selection factor. If at-large resumes or TV are significant factors in deciding the match-ups, all bets are off.