Outlook

[WuDrWu]

The growth of David Kyles, defensively, was huge.


His offense will come as he is uber talented. If he is able to contribute meaningful minutes for the remainder of the season we are going to be a tough out.

It's nice to finally have some positive outlook scenarios.

[RoyalShock]

Speaking of Kyles' offense, I was happy to see him remain aggressive last night, and all within the flow of the offense.

He didn't score, but when he had opportunities to penetrate, he did. And he took care of the ball.

As Doc said, his offense will come. I have this feeling that he is going to suddenly have a major breakout game against a less athletic opponent. Perhaps at home against UNI?

[WuDrWu]

Or, given his recent practice (which has been very good) we might just see one this Sunday.


He will be a tough matchup for anyone but Shy for Evansville and if Toure and David are on the court at the same time then Holsinger is going to really have his hands full on the defensive end.

REALLY full.

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

I loved the view of Kyles one drive, where he came from the left side across to about the free throw lane. He elevated for a jumper and while he didn't make it, I saw his guy jump with him and appeared to only get his outstretched hand to about his nose.

It may have been camera view making it look that way, but based on how far Kyles was off the ground....Ellis would have had a hard time blocking it.

[RoyalShock]

Back to the season outlook, I think we're beginning to put ourselves in a position to potentially avoid playing on Thursday night. Here's our remaining Valley schedule (Home/Away):

H - Evansville
A - Bradley
H - Drake
A - Indiana St.
A - Evansville
H - Missouri St.
H - No. Iowa
A - Illinois St.
H - Indiana St.
A - So. Illinois

For the sake of argument I'm going to expect that we won't see a series of games the rest of the year like the ones that got us to 0-6. Yes, I'm assuming we've turned the corner, at least for this discussion.

I think every home game (5) is winnable, even against UNI (more on them below). That would put us at 7-11 and "on the bubble" for finishing 6th. With roadies at UE and InSU, getting one of those should solidfy a 6th place finish. Two would make it a foregone conclusion.

If we are able to salvage this season by finishing 6th or higher, I will be convinced that three victories in STL is doable for this team.

Now, in regards to UNI. Over the past few years, last year being a mild exception, they typically fade in the 2nd half of the conference schedule. They rely on three factors: FG%, 3FG% and limited turnovers. If a team can get them around 45% FG, 40% 3FG and 10+ turnovers (or even 2 out of those 3), they become a very average MVC team. That's not a lot of room for error. And as we know, consitently hitting those high shooting percentages is very difficult. They will have at least a couple of games where they'll struggle. And as our defense continues to develop, I think we could cause them some trouble at home.

[shockar25]

They are still a lot of improvements they can do at home.
- 3-pt shooting
- playing good in both halves instead just one half

Then there are a few players that still need to improve.
- Hatch with his outside shooting
- Stutz with his aggressiveness
- Hannah with running the team

It's like HCGM said (I believe on his coach's show) if they ever play a perfect game he'll retire and end his career on that perfect game. The fact of the matter is, there are no perfect games and there are always things to work on.

BTW, I agree on all of things you said. Stutz isn't likely to see the BIG improvements in one season--I hate to say it, but the rest are do-able right away. We'll see...

[vbird53]

Most coaches would suggest (and I'm pretty sure I've mentioned this on this site in the past) that you will see the most improvement in a kid between his freshman and sophomore year.

I think this would particularly fit in Stutz' case, as well as other 7 footers.

[NCAABound]

A "big-man" camp is essential for Garrett. Didn't Turgeon mention how much that helped Paul Miller?

[Shox21]

A "big-man" camp is essential for Garrett. Didn't Turgeon mention how much that helped Paul Miller?

Don't know what it costs, but the Stutz family may not be able to afford to send Garrett.

[wufan]

Often times big men don't have their "big improvement" year until their junior or even senior season.

[WSUwatcher]

Back to the season outlook, I think we're beginning to put ourselves in a position to potentially avoid playing on Thursday night. Here's our remaining Valley schedule (Home/Away):

H - Evansville
A - Bradley
H - Drake
A - Indiana St.
A - Evansville
H - Missouri St.
H - No. Iowa
A - Illinois St.
H - Indiana St.
A - So. Illinois

For the sake of argument I'm going to expect that we won't see a series of games the rest of the year like the ones that got us to 0-6. Yes, I'm assuming we've turned the corner, at least for this discussion.

I think every home game (5) is winnable, even against UNI (more on them below). That would put us at 7-11 and "on the bubble" for finishing 6th. With roadies at UE and InSU, getting one of those should solidfy a 6th place finish. Two would make it a foregone conclusion.

If we are able to salvage this season by finishing 6th or higher, I will be convinced that three victories in STL is doable for this team.

Now, in regards to UNI. Over the past few years, last year being a mild exception, they typically fade in the 2nd half of the conference schedule. They rely on three factors: FG%, 3FG% and limited turnovers. If a team can get them around 45% FG, 40% 3FG and 10+ turnovers (or even 2 out of those 3), they become a very average MVC team. That's not a lot of room for error. And as we know, consitently hitting those high shooting percentages is very difficult. They will have at least a couple of games where they'll struggle. And as our defense continues to develop, I think we could cause them some trouble at home.

Royal, I also think 8-10 is realistic to hope for and 9-9 is quite possible. But when I looked back over this century's Valley standings (i.e., the last eight years), I was surprised to see that in four of the eight seasons, an 8-10 record would have placed a team either 7th or (in 2000-01) tied for 7th/8th. On the other hand, there was also once (2002-03), when 8-10 was tied for 4th/5th. And three times it would have been good enough for 6th.

Obviously, the times when 8-10 is good enough to avoid the play-in round tend to be those years when the league is unbalanced at the top, with a handful of teams running away and piling up so many conference that there aren't all that many left for the rest, even in the middle of the pack. But I'm not sure that this is one of those years, as I also see UNI falling back some.

So I'd love to see the Shocks make it to .500 in MVC play, because that will indeed almost surely do the trick. And it certainly could happen, especially if they can continue to hustle, play with confidence, and keep taking good shots. Making FTs would also help -- it's hard to dispute that those are easy shots.

[ShockTalk]

I too would like to avoid the play-in games. However, if we can finish 8-10 in the Valley, that would mean we ended league play 8-4, which is the "improvement" thing many of us are wanting to see.

[ShockerFever]

8-10 would be solid and probably a 'season saver', but I'm still not that optimistic at this point.

[ShockTalk]

ShockerFever - You need to have a talk with HCGM about "buying in".

:D

[ShockerFever]

ShockerFever - You need to have a talk with HCGM about "buying in".

:D

It's pretty hard to dig out of an 0-6 hole is all I'm saying. Again, I'd be happily excited about being wrong, but again, I'm just trying to look at things 'realistically'..