2008-2009 Shocker Men's Prouty Ratings

[1979Shocker]

Wichita State vs Missouri State Prouty Ratings

              MSU     All 
Player       Game    Games 
Hannah       0.151   0.367
Murry        0.394   0.327 
Clemente     0.321   0.326
Hawkins      0.195   0.287
Durley       0.158   0.282
Stutz        0.335   0.281 
Griskenas   -0.056   0.278
Chamberlain* 0.464   0.273
Michael      0.000   0.226
Hatch        0.031   0.225
Kyles        0.234   0.215
Ellis*       0.236   0.186
Britton      0.000   0.042
Steven       0.000   0.001 
TEAM         0.314   0.339

Team Winning Percentage: 0.353

* Improved from previous game.

[im4wsu]

Through the Missouri State debacle.


Good to see Clemente start to contribute and Ellis and Chamberlain had nice games.

[1979Shocker]

Wichita State vs Creighton Prouty Ratings

              CU      All 
Player       Game    Games 
Hannah*      0.399   0.374
Murry*       0.367   0.334
Clemente*    0.423   0.337
Hawkins*     0.259   0.292
Durley*      0.283   0.286
Stutz*       0.348   0.285
Griskenas*   0.135   0.280
Chamberlain* 0.457   0.277
Michael      0.000   0.226 
Hatch*       0.266   0.232
Kyles*       0.000   0.216
Ellis*       0.475   0.216
Britton      0.000   0.042 
Steven       0.000   0.001 
TEAM*        0.386   0.350

Team Winning Percentage: 0.389

* Improved from previous game.

[1979Shocker]

Top 5 players for the Creighton game

Ellis       0.475
Chamberlain 0.457
Clemente    0.423
Hannah      0.399
Murry       0.367

[ShockTalk]

EVERYBODY improved today over their MSU performance and 7 improved on their season rating. This was not a one, two, or even a three player game/win. Everybody played hard and with a purpose. This is what it's all about!!

[Dan]

Top 5 players for the Creighton game

Ellis       0.475
Chamberlain 0.457
Clemente    0.423
Hannah      0.399
Murry       0.367

Something not quite right with the rating system. Just watching the game subjectively, I would say the 4 best players were Ellis, Clemente, Murry and Hatch. I thought Chamberlain was very average today and had some costly mistakes.

[1979Shocker]

Top 5 players for the Creighton game

Ellis       0.475
Chamberlain 0.457
Clemente    0.423
Hannah      0.399
Murry       0.367

Something not quite right with the rating system. Just watching the game subjectively, I would say the 4 best players were Ellis, Clemente, Murry and Hatch. I thought Chamberlain was very average today and had some costly mistakes.

I was thinking the same thing about Chamberlain when I saw the game. There were two possessions in a row where I think he either got it stolen or threw it away. Here are Chamberlain and Hatch's ratings for the game in more detail. What really helped Chamberlain in the rating was making his only shot, which was a 3.

            Offensive   Total   Possessions   Win    Total
            Efficiency Offense    Gained     Rating  Rating
Chamberlain   1.500     0.125      0.125     0.078   0.457
Hatch         0.615     0.368     -0.105     0.185   0.266

[im4wsu]

Top 5 players for the Creighton game

Ellis       0.475
Chamberlain 0.457
Clemente    0.423
Hannah      0.399
Murry       0.367

Ellis................0.475 + 5.3
Chamberlain...0.457 - 40.7
Clemente........0.423 +10.7
Hannah...........0.399 +32.2
Murry..............0.367 +18.9

Here are the complete ratings updated through the Creighton WIN:

[1979Shocker]

Wichita State vs Illinois State Prouty Ratings

              ILS     All 
Player       Game    Games 
Hannah*      0.271   0.376
Clemente*    0.449   0.349
Murry*       0.450   0.346
Hawkins*     0.411   0.303
Durley*      0.222   0.287
Stutz       -0.010   0.282
Griskenas*   0.000   0.281
Chamberlain  0.008   0.277
Ellis*       0.409   0.240
Hatch        0.148   0.232
Michael      0.000   0.226
Kyles        0.157   0.215
Britton      0.000   0.042
Steven       0.000   0.001
TEAM*        0.386   0.359 

Team Winning Percentage: 0.421

* Improved from previous game.

[im4wsu]

The grate +/- score for Stutz is attributable to his starting the 2nd half and being there during the 8-0 run in 1:44 of play.

[McShocker]

Stutz didn't play at all in the second half. Durley started the half.

[im4wsu]

Stutz didn't play at all in the second half. Durley started the half.

Your are correct. The play-by-play posted at goshockers.com under Basketball-Stats-Play-by-Play is wrong as they have Durley coming in at 18:11 for Stutz. Here are the corrected Plus/Minus scores (guess this proves "garbage in-garbage out")

[ShockTalk]

im4wsu - I'm a little surprised by your +/- for Ellis. If he doesn't show up that game, I don't believe the Shox win.

[im4wsu]

im4wsu - I'm a little surprised by your +/- for Ellis. If he doesn't show up that game, I don't believe the Shox win.

I only go by what the official "play-by-play" report shows. In Ellis' case, it shows he entered the game with 10:43 left in the 1st half when the score was 10-16. He left the game with 0:35 left in the half and the score was 20-28. That is a minus 2. It actually shows him leaving the game at 3:30 but scoring 3 seconds later, so there is bad data. That caused my computer system to read his score as minus 4 instead of minus 2.

In the second half, he entered at 13:05 with the score 37-36 and left with the score 50-51, another minus 2. He reentered the game at 0:43 with the score 58-51 and the final score was 64-58, so that gives another minus 1.

He played just over 20 minutes, so his -7 converts to something around the score shown. The computer actually does this by the number of seconds on the floor, and it shorted the number of seconds in the first half by having him leave earlier than maybe he did.

I sometimes find errors in the play-by-play regarding substitutions (sometimes they have more guys entering the game than leaving and I have to figure out how to correct it) which greatly affect the results. In this case, the error probably would changes the -11.9 to around -9.9.

Bear in mind that I don't keep or record the stats, these are what WSU publishes and I simply read those and report what they say. There were actually perhaps five errors in the times of substitutions and involved the following six players:
Hannah was +11.6, now +13.2
Durley was +23.5 now +22.5
Hatch was -40.1, now -6.4
Kyles was +22.9, now +16.9
Hawkins was +11.4, now +6.8
Ellis was -11.9, now -9.9
Note: Hatch was in for a long stretch before it showed him entering the game. For example, the stats show he scored the driving layup to tie the game at 44, but the subs listed didn't have him in the game. I put him in at the last sub time listed before the his first statistic of the half.

Once again, GARBAGE IN = GARBAGE OUT. Usually my program will hang up if the stats try to take someone out who is not in, or vice versa, but these errors were all statistics from players not in the game. I will try to repair the program to alert me to these so I can attempt to play detective and manually repair the input.

[ShockTalk]

Thanks for the additioanl info. I really didn't mean my comment as being critical of your calculation, but of the "numbers" themselves. Ellis's contribution to the team and the win is probably found more in looking at both your numbers and the Prouty rating. And then, sometimes numbers just can't tell the real story.