2017-2018 Bracketology

[Steeleshocker]

Taking a look at the teams we are competing with on the seed line, I think 1 win in Orlando against Temple locks up the 4 line. That should be enough to keep us in front of Arizona, WVU and Texas Tech. Getting to the Champ game will give us a shot at the 3 seed, depending on the SEC tournament. MSU being done already does give us a chance to make a run at them as well with a good tourney stretch. I think wining the tourney guarantees a 3 seed.

Unfortunately for us UCF won't be a tier 1 win unless they can figure out a way to knock off Houston.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

If WSU wins the AAC Tourney (3 wins)…

Uncatchable (8)
Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas, Duke, Michigan State, Purdue, Cincy

WSU Needs Help to Catch (3)
North Carolina (Must lose to Wake Forest on Wednesday. WF must beat Syracuse Tuesday first.)
Auburn (Must lose in Quarterfinals on Friday)
Tennessee (Must lose in Quarterfinals on Friday)

Could Go Either Way (4)
Michigan
Texas Tech (Reaching Big 12 Champ game would probably make them uncatchable)
West Virginia (Reaching Big 12 Champ game would probably make them uncatchable)
Arizona (No idea if committee will give a boost due to players missing games, or drop because of scandals looming)

Too Close For Comfort (5)
Clemson (Potential game vs Virginia in semis could be deciding factor)
Gonzaga
Ohio State (I'd be really surprised, but still, worried until I see the Committee's results)
Florida (Each SEC Tourney win will make me progressively more nervous.)
Kentucky (See Florida)

Not all 20 of these teams will finish in front of WSU. In fact, a WSU tourney championship probably gets a 3 seed, but a 4 seed wouldn't surprise me one bit either.

[wusphlash]

Could this be the year we see a #1 go down to a #16?

[Cdizzle]

Nope!

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I'd give it less than a 1% chance. No greater this year than most.

[SHOCKvalue]

Not unless Creighton gets a 1 seed.

[WuShock Reaper]

Our glide path for a 3-seed or better on “Selection Sunday”

AAC Tournament
Thursday Action
Game 1: Need Connecticut to win versus SMU
Game 2: Need Memphis to win versus South Florida
Game 3: Need Temple to win versus Tulane
Game 3: Need Central Florida to win versus East Carolina

Friday Action
Game 5: Need Cincinnati to win versus Connecticut
Game 6: Need Tulsa to win versus Memphis
Game 7: Need Wichita State to win versus Temple
Game 8: Need Houston to win versus Central Florida

Saturday Action
Game 9: Need Cincinnati to win versus Tulsa
Game 10: Need Wichita State to win versus Houston

Sunday Action
Game 11: Need Wichita State to win versus Cincinnati


Other “Impact Games in Conference Tournaments”:

ACC Conference Tournament
Need Virginia to win the ACC Tournament. Need Duke, North Carolina, and Clemson to lose in their first games. Need Notre Dame to win as many games as possible.

Big 12 Conference Tournament
Need Oklahoma, Baylor and Oklahoma State to win as many games as possible. Need Texas Tech and West Virginia to lose in their first games.

Big 10 Conference Tournament
Season over - root for players and coaches to be declared ineligible for postseason. :joyous:

Big East Conference Tournament
Need to Marquette to win as many games as possible, but basically need Villanova and Xavier to make it to the title game.

PAC-12 Conference Tournament
Root for California to win it all. Root for Arizona to get upset in the first game.

SEC Conference Tournament
Root for Auburn, Tennessee, and Kentucky to get upset in their first games.

West Coast Conference Tournament
Root for Saint Mary’s to win and Gonzaga to lose.

[FadedCrown]

Sorry to point this out but Cincinnati beating Connecticut is not easy, see 4OT game

[WuShock Reaper]

I think we need all the higher AAC teams to win their respective games to improve our overall Strength Of Schedule (SOS).

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I really would add Florida to the SEC list. They have 9 Q1 wins with their whole conference tourney remaining. Don't want them earning #10.

[IndianaShocker]

Here is how our seeding will play out...

Lose Friday vs Tulane - #6
Lose Friday vs Temple - #6/#5
Lose Sat vs ECU - #6
Lose Sat vs UCF - #5/#6
Lose Sat vs Hou - #5/#4
Lose Sun vs anyone but Cin - #5/#4
Lose to Cin - #4
Win Sun vs anyone but Cincy - #3/#4
Win vs Temple/Hou/Cin - #2/#3
Win vs Temple or Hou and Cin - #3
Win vs Cin but not Temple or Houston - #3/#4

[shocks02]

I think this might be a tad optimistic. So much of this relevant on how 8-10 other teams perform over the next 6 days as well.

[AndShock]

Didn’t know where to put this but this seems like a good spot. I would say it’s likely we get sent to a Thurs/Sat site (Boise or Dallas, probably Boise). Then let’s say we win the AAC tourney. That could be quite a bit of travel in 4-5 days. I’m a big nonbelievabler in the “losses can be good” philosphy but an extra day or two of practice/travel/rest/etc might be nice.

[ShockerFever]

Didn’t know where to put this but this seems like a good spot. I would say it’s likely we get sent to a Thurs/Sat site (Boise or Dallas, probably Boise). Then let’s say we win the AAC tourney. That could be quite a bit of travel in 4-5 days. I’m a big nonbelievabler in the “losses can be good” philosphy but an extra day or two of practice/travel/rest/etc might be nice.

Having tickets to the Thur/Sat games in Wichita, I'm banking on the hope that we land on Fri/Sun. That would be problematic.

I didn't realize Dallas was also Thu/Sat. Crap.

[ShockerGrad]

I'm hoping for a Fri./Sun. as well. I have tickets for a concert on 3/17 and didn't realize the concert could be during a WSU game until after I bought tickets!

[Stickboy46]

Having tickets to the Thur/Sat games in Wichita, I'm banking on the hope that we land on Fri/Sun. That would be problematic.

I didn't realize Dallas was also Thu/Sat. Crap.

To be honest .. my Thursday/Saturday tickets for Wichita are probably getting sold anyways. Don't think i can turn down price gouging a KU fan.

[ShockerDropOut]

Same here.

[Rocky Mountain Shock]

Having tickets to the Thur/Sat games in Wichita, I'm banking on the hope that we land on Fri/Sun. That would be problematic.

I didn't realize Dallas was also Thu/Sat. Crap.

I'm in the same pickle. I'm praying hard to the Selection Sunday gods for a Fri/Sun site.

[Cdizzle]

Screw you guys. I want Dallas.

[Jhook89]

Interesting thought, do we want UCF to beat UofH? UCF is currently 78. If they get up to 75 our current wins over them go from q2 and q3 to q1 and q2. Beating of UOfH would give us another q1 win, but we would lose out on the UCF wins getting upgraded...

[Steeleshocker]

While this would move the UCF road game back to Q1 it would remove the opportunity to get another Q1 win from Houston on a neutral floor

[Cdizzle]

At this point, I think the most important part of WSU's resume is more wins. One might look a little better than the other, but either would be decent. Winning is the most important thing.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

So to clarify the values of the 5 total games played vs Houston and UCF. (shown by quadrants)
WSU vs Houston: 3/1/1
WSU vs UCF: 3/2

Playing UCF means one Q3 turns Q2, and I think we would all agree that WSU would have a greater chance of actually beating UCF than Houston. Seems like a no brainer to root for UCF, right?

On the other hand, not everything is quadrant based. RPI 75 vs 76 equals different quadrants, but virtually no difference when calculating RPI and SOS. Just because both scenarios involve 3 Q1 wins doesn't mean the strength of those Q1 wins is identical in each. Still some value in playing Houston 3 times as they are the much better team.

Conclusion? If I knew WSU would win regardless, I probably want them to play Houston. Since I don't know, it is harder to decide, but I probably lean toward playing UCF, mostly due to the increased chance of reaching the finals.

[WstateU]

Screw you guys. I want Dallas.

So does Debbie...

[shock-it-to-me]

Interesting thought, do we want UCF to beat UofH? UCF is currently 78. If they get up to 75 our current wins over them go from q2 and q3 to q1 and q2. Beating of UOfH would give us another q1 opportunity, but we would lose out on the UCF wings getting upgraded...

personally, I would prefer any easier path back to Cincinnati. So I will be rooting for UCF

[WheatShock]

Interesting thought, do we want UCF to beat UofH? UCF is currently 78. If they get up to 75 our current wins over them go from q2 and q3 to q1 and q2. Beating of UOfH would give us another q1 opportunity, but we would lose out on the UCF wings getting upgraded...

Is the conference tourney considered a neutral court for UCF since its in Orlando?

RPI wizard says UCF's RPI gets to about a 68 if its a neutral court, and 73 if its considered home in that scenario.

[FadedCrown]

If we beat Temple, UCF and Cincy, and the UCF game is considered a road win, we finish 8-4 in Q1 games.

[FadedCrown]

Also of note, if Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma and Kansas, then loses their next game, they become a Q1 win for us.