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2017-2018 Bracketology

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  • Originally posted by Jamar Howard 4 President View Post

    I think it is easy. If every game counts equally, OU gets in.

    If Feb counts more than Nov, OU should go to the NIT.

    just gotta pick a philosophy.
    Agree; do you choose participants due to a whole season or just on their chances of winning a National Championship? Chances can change based on player injury, player return, eligibility, etc. Personally I believe that if you can't finish in the top half of your conference, you have no real shot at winning it all and shouldn't get a bid. But I know that "Money" is the real philosophy driver.

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    • Originally posted by Cdizzle View Post

      It's very debatable.

      If WSU loses to Temple tomorrow, they will have lost 2 straight games, at home and neutral. Should we not make the tourney? Squeak in with a 10 seed?
      We're 10-2 over the last 5 weeks. What's that go to do with ou?

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      • Originally posted by ShockingButTrue View Post

        We're 10-2 over the last 5 weeks. What's that go to do with ou?
        Exactly. You're arbitrarily drawing a line.

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        • ShockingButTrue
          ShockingButTrue commented
          Editing a comment
          Good try. Over that same span ou is 3-9. Maybe they deserve the 10?

        • Cdizzle
          Cdizzle commented
          Editing a comment
          Maybe they do. Maybe they deserve a 7. Maybe they don't deserve in. The entire body of work has to matter.

        • ShockingButTrue
          ShockingButTrue commented
          Editing a comment
          Their entire body of work shows they haven't won a road game since December.

          I could understand if they recaptured some November magic in the b12 tourney, but they only scored 60 in a losing effort yesterday.

      • Lunardi has a Wichita/Buffalo matchup right now. That has potential to be a 105-100 type game. Buffalo has a pretty solid O and hardly plays any D.

        Comment


        • But if your entire body of work doesn't land you over .500 in your own league I don't think you deserve a bid. Your chances of winning it all are close to nil. And if you were cold at the start of the year but are "hot" now, you should win your conference tourney and get in. If you are under .500 and can't win your conference tourney, then no at large for you. But again, philosophy. Are we trying to determine the nat champ or just playing for ticket sales/tv revenue? IMO.

          Comment


          • Cdizzle
            Cdizzle commented
            Editing a comment
            Iona's chances of winning the championship are nil, but they are getting in. True for probably 50-ish of the 68 teams that make the tourney every year.

            I'm actually a proponent of having to be .500 in league (JH4P makes reasoned counter-arguments), but I don't think the "chances of winning it all" argument is not a good one.

          • ShockingButTrue
            ShockingButTrue commented
            Editing a comment
            Alabama has a better chance of winning it all than the sooners.

            Where did that dumb argument get started? Was it Dick Vitale?

        • Thought it was interesting to note that we play very well versus tournament teams.

          http://barttorvik.com/altrank.php?r=qrank&year=2018

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          • There is one thing we learn every year at this time of year. That is which metric can be used as an excuse for the Selection Committee putting whatever teams they want into the tournament, without actually evaluating the merits of those teams.

            There's always some metric that fits the preconceived notion of what teams "should" be in the tourney.
            The future's so bright - I gotta wear shades.
            We like to cut down nets and get sized for championship rings.

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            • Chances we see WSU vs Kentucky in Boise next Saturday?

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              • Originally posted by Jamar Howard 4 President View Post
                Chances we see WSU vs Kentucky in Boise next Saturday?
                I had my tinfoil hat on in 2014 when we faced them in the second round, I had my tinfoil hat on last year when we faced them in the second round, and I've got it ready to go now.

                Just say the word, and I'll tell you all about the ways the committee works the bracket to get us to face them.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by jdshock View Post

                  I had my tinfoil hat on in 2014 when we faced them in the second round, I had my tinfoil hat on last year when we faced them in the second round, and I've got it ready to go now.

                  Just say the word, and I'll tell you all about the ways the committee works the bracket to get us to face them.

                  Take off the tinfoil hat, genius. Clearly it's why we keep losing.

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                  • All kidding aside, look for an early round match-up with the Ramblers.

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                    • Originally posted by shoxtop View Post
                      What is everyone’s opinion on whether Ou should get an at large? Most bracketologists have them firmly in as a 9/10 but having lost 10 of their last 15 and only winning one conference road game all year has me questioning their merit. They do have a whole lot of “good losses” though.
                      OU will make it in....easily. The committee is apparently giving a lot of influence to this Quadrant system and absolutely no regard to when during the season you won or lost your games.
                      Oklahoma has 6 Q1 wins and ZERO Q3 or Q4 losses. They have more Q1 wings than: Cincinnati, Houston, Texas Tech, Tennessee, Arkansas, Clemson, Wichita State, Arizona, Seton Hall, Gonzaga, Michigan State, Kentucky, Virginia Tech, TCU, Ohio State, Creighton, Butler, Louisville, Notre Dame, UCLA, Providence, Arizona State, Temple, Baylor, NC State, Miami and Oklahoma State. They have as many Q1 wins as Michigan, Xavier, Duke, Purdue and Florida State.
                      My point is, if the committee is going to use the criteria they say they will, OU has nothing to worry about. That is not to say I think they are deserving based on how they are playing now. This is not the same team the Shockers played. I think the Shox would blow out this OU team by 20+. But, if it's true that the committee is not going to give any consideration to how a team finishes the season, Oklahoma is not even on the bubble.
                      As an aside, when looking at these Quadrant records, I can see Houston getting a higher tourney seed than WSU. They have more Q1 wins and a better Q1 winning percentage. The exact same league and overall records. Split head to head. Just saying, it would behoove the Shockers to beat Houston in Orlando or they could easily get jumped on the seed line by UH.
                      One more. There was a lot of outrage when Michigan State was #11 on the committee's first top 16 reveal a couple of weeks ago. " How could they possibly not be a 1 seed?!" MSU has 3 Q1 wins all season with a .429 winning percentage in Q1 games. Their poll rating has been inflated all season.
                      Last edited by Zubcut; March 8, 2018, 07:12 PM.

                      Comment


                      • WuShock16
                        WuShock16 commented
                        Editing a comment
                        Yeah, I still don’t get Michigan State at all. They had 22 Q3/Q4 games, which was 2/3 of their schedule. That’s like playing in a one-bid league. Still a solid squad but that weak schedule should cost them a seed line or two.

                      • Jamar Howard 4 President
                        Jamar Howard 4 President commented
                        Editing a comment
                        WuShock16, how did you feel about Gonzaga getting a 1 seed the year WSU beat them? (2013)

                      • WuShock16
                        WuShock16 commented
                        Editing a comment
                        Not a problem at all because the non-conference schedule that year was good. They beat numerous good teams in their non-conference season. Without being able to find specific numbers, I would gather that their NCSOS was decent that year.

                        Michigan State, on the other hand, has crappy non-conference numbers this season...which is weird because Izzo usually schedules pretty well. I am seeing this year's rating listed as 213.

                        Call me wrong all you want, but I have ZERO sympathy for power conference teams who have a crappy NCSOS. Teams generally have control over their non-conference schedule, especially power conference teams. If 2017 WSU gets raked over the coals for the conference schedule that it was forced to play, then hell yes I will criticize the Creightons, K-States, etc. who choose to play bad non-conference schedules. Just my opinion though.

                    • Heard last night during one of the games, that the top 8 teams gave been selected and seeded on the top 2 lines.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by WuShock Reaper View Post
                        Heard last night during one of the games, that the top 8 teams gave been selected and seeded on the top 2 lines.


                        Its a good landing if you can walk away, its a great landing if the plane can be reused the next day.

                        Comment


                        • Updated @ 1:00pm Friday 3/9. Hasn't been a good 24 hours as all the Shox competition has been winning.

                          If WSU wins the AAC Tourney (3 wins)…

                          Uncatchable (9)
                          Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas, Duke, Michigan State, Purdue, Cincy, North Carolina

                          WSU Needs Help to Catch (4)
                          Auburn (Leading Alabama by 10 at halftime. Must lose or they become uncatchable. Even in a loss, probably still ahead of WSU.)
                          Tennessee (Must lose in Quarterfinals today to Mississippi St)
                          Texas Tech (Play WVU tonight. Winner probably uncatchable. Loser will be close call)
                          West Virginia (See Texas Tech)

                          Could Go Either Way (2)
                          Michigan
                          Arizona (No idea how committee will treat injuries & scandals. A loss today to UCLA would probably give WSU the advantage.)

                          Too Close For Comfort (5)
                          Clemson (Play Virginia tonight. A win might help them pass WSU.)
                          Gonzaga
                          Ohio State (I'd be really surprised, but still, worried until I see the Committee's results)
                          Florida (Each SEC Tourney win will make me progressively more nervous.)
                          Kentucky (See Florida)

                          A 2 seed is out of the question, and I could easily see even a 3 seed becoming out of reach if both Auburn and Tennessee win today. 4 seed seems extremely likely, with the main goal of not losing today and risking dropping to a 5 (or even a 6 considering Houston might pass them).

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                          • RoyalShock
                            RoyalShock commented
                            Editing a comment
                            Alabama doing it's part to help us with Auburn, outscoring them 43-13 so far in the 2nd half.
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