2017-2018 Bracketology

[Shocktoberfest]

ESPN showing KU as a one this morning. Horseshit!

So tired of this. Silver lining, I guess, they get home court advantage in Wichita and lose to Houston in game 2. I'd pay to see that.

[Play Angry]

Link to this morning's ESPN Bracketology.

Cincy a 3, WSU a 4, Houston a 9, Temple nowhere to be seen (even in the 8 teams listed as being the closest "bubble out" squads).

[Rlh04d]

Not surprised after an 0-2 week against tourney teams. Would they get in if they win out (including @Tulsa) and make the AAC tourney finals?

[SB Shock]

I think Temple has too many bad losses in Quadrant 3 of the team sheet to get an at-large. If the committee looks at metrics that will also hurt them. They average 84 between KenPom, Sag and BPI.

[rrshock]

Temple is good enough to win the AAC tourney. That would surely screw over a mid major at large chance, but would be awesome for the league.

[ShockTalk]

I really don't like the sound of that would come about. I'll pass.

[WuShock Reaper]

"Bracketology: Purdue and Wichita State move up, but Ohio State and Cincinnati slip" - CBS Sports

by Jerry Palm
Posted: 02/19/18, 11:45am cst

https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba...ncinnati-slip/

"The big game on Sunday was Wichita State's 76-72 road win at Cincinnati, which was the Shockers biggest win of the season. Prior to that, their best win was against Houston, a team the Shockers split with home and home. Houston at home is still Cincinnati's best win, and you could reasonably argue that the Bearcats four losses have come in their four toughest games.

Wichita State's win, combined with Ohio State's loss at Michigan resulted in a seed switch for those two teams. The Shockers have moved up to the No. 4-line, while the Buckeyes drop down to a No. 5 seed....'

Cincinnati 3-Seed vs. Rider 14-Seed (in Pittsburgh)

Wichita State 4-Seed vs. Vermont 13-Seed (in San Diego)

Houston 9-Seed vs. Alabama 8-Seed (in Charlotte)

Others:
Oklahoma 7-Seed
South Dakota State 12-Seed
Charleston 14-Seed
Florida Gulf Coast 16-Seed
Savannah State 16-Seed
Baylor First Four OUt

[WSUwatcher]

How long will Oklahoma last as ANY seed, much less 7th, if they continue to collapse the way they're doing right now?

[AndShock]

#16 FGCU with former KU assistant Joe Dooley against #1 KU might be juicy.

[ShockerFever]

#16 FGCU with former KU assistant Joe Dooley against #1 KU might be juicy.

I can already see the sphincters tightening.

Id give FGCU 40/60 in that matchup.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

No you wouldn’t.

[ShockerFever]

Let me think about it again..





Yep. I would.

[Cdizzle]

Michigan St., who most have as a 1 or 2 seed, is 8-3 vs. Q1 and Q2 teams.

They have a non-con SOS over 300.

I guess that soft schedule stuff doesn't count for them.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

To be fair, they also have only 3 losses. One of only 3 teams in D1. Also, the only team in the country with a KenPom top 10 offense and defense.

Do you Cdizzle have 8 teams you would put ahead of them, or is your complaint about them as a 1/2 seed just bluster?

[Cdizzle]

I've been told repeatedly that losses don't matter and kenPom doesn't matter. Just your top tier games played.

My complaint is a goalpost that always moves to fit the teams TV wants.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Show me a single resume close to MSU’s in the past 20 years that didn’t get a 1 or 2 seed. If the goalposts changing is your problem, and MSU is your example, then this should be an easy assignment.

[wuhog]

How often will selection committee put out their projected top 16?

[WuShock16]

I believe they will have done it just that one time. Next time we see anything from the Selection Committee, it will be on Selection Sunday.

[Cdizzle]

How often will selection committee put out their projected top 16?

Interesting question. Would be interested to see WSU not included, given that WSU is in the Top 16 of literally every other measurable ranking, predictor, team sheets, etc. There is no knock.

RPI? Check.
People poll? Check.
kenPom? Check.
Sagarin? Check.
Q1&Q2 wins? Check.
Bad losses? Check.
Signature win? Check.
Road win? Check.
Injury excuse? Check.
Entertaining brand of basketball? Check.
Name recognition? Check.
Coaches salary? Check.
NBA prospects? Check.


Put it this wasy: If WSU isn't in your Top 4 seed lines right now, you have an agenda.

[DUShock]

Interesting question. Would be interested to see WSU not included, given that WSU is in the Top 16 of literally every other measurable ranking, predictor, team sheets, etc. There is no knock.

RPI? Check.
People poll? Check.
kenPom? Check.
Sagarin? Check.
Q1&Q2 wins? Check.
Bad losses? Check.
Signature win? Check.
Road win? Check.
Injury excuse? Check.
Entertaining brand of basketball? Check.
Name recognition? Check.
Coaches salary? Check.
NBA prospects? Check.


Put it this wasy: If WSU isn't in your Top 4 seed lines right now, you have an agenda.

[Cdizzle]

Breaking this out of the comments above because, well, it's interesting. And very relevant.

Jamar Howard 4 President : Show me a single resume close to MSU’s in the past 20 years that didn’t get a 1 or 2 seed. If the goalposts changing is your problem, and MSU is your example, then this should be an easy assignment.

Funny you should ask, JH4P.

Team A Reg Season:
1-50 2-3
51-100 5-0
101-200 11-0
201+ 8-0
RPI: 15
Avg. NonCon RPI: 178
Projected Seed: 2



Team B Reg Season:
1-50 2-2
51-100 8-1
101-200 5-0
201+ 11-0
RPI: 11
Avg. NonCon RPI: 130
Projected Seed: Definitely not 2


Team C Reg Season:
1-50 2-3
51-100 6-0
101-200 13-1
201+ 5-0
RPI: 10
Avg. NonCon RPI: 113
Projected Seed: Definitely not 2


Team D Reg Season:
1-50 3-2
51-100 7-1
101-200 4-0
201+ 13-0
RPI: 11
Avg. NonCon RPI: 156
Projected Seed: Definitely not 2



These were 3 of the first 4 other teams I thought of. You're right, this was an easy assignment.

[jdshock]

I'm not trying to be dense, but isn't that a little different than Q1 and Q2? Isn't the whole thing that playing at 51's home arena is harder than playing 49 at home?

I'm sure you can present similar arguments using Q1 and Q2 metrics, but I just want to understand why you switched from using that to using this.

[Cdizzle]

I switched because I was asked to use the last 20 years. Over which time using the RPI groupings as above was the norm. It's actually more of a pain than I want it to be to go shift all the records to Quadrants. Maybe someone will do that. Simply put, it was easier to convert MSU to the original buckets and then compare to readily available data than to convert all the readily available data and compare it to MSU. At first blush though, the differences are not great in the above examples.

[FadedCrown]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

Leave it to Palm to put Savannah State who is ineligible to play in the postseason to put them in his bracket.

[shocks02]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba.../bracketology/

Leave it to Palm to put Savannah State who is ineligible to play in the postseason to put them in his bracket.

The NCAA accepted their appeal so they regained their eligibility for this season.

[FadedCrown]

The NCAA accepted their appeal so they regained their eligibility for this season.

Where do you see this

[Mr. Pickle]

Is there any reasonable explanation right now that we shouldn't be projected in Dallas if we are a 4 (protected)seed? I get TTU being there, but I've seen UNC among others there as well in various projections, with us being sent out to Boise or San Diego in a pod against lower seeds who are geographically closer. I realize it's hard to get things perfect and satisfy everyone, but it seems like BS to me. Maybe some of these projections aren't terribly concerned about geography yet?