Dayton Message Board

[GreatWhiteBuffalo]

Oh my. "They (WSU) may actually be overseeded." Le sigh...

[Flyer Visitor]

The quickest way to get on Gottleib's bad side is to ask him what happened with the criminal case related to the theft of credit cards (to buy his girlfriend some bling at Things Remembered) when he attended Notre Dame. I have a friend who was one of Gottleib's victims.

As a female, I can say bling from Things Remembered would not be bling I'm interested in receiving as a gift from a guy. One more piece of evidence that Gottlieb is an idiot.

[molly jabali]

Maybe I'm missing it, but I'm not seeing much dissing of Dayton on Shockernet, but whatever.

I totally agree...with Dayton. But there have been some teams that get obliterated on here, reasonably or not...main reason I rarely if ever don't go elsewhere...no reason to get the blood boiling!!!:)

[wichshock65]

Went over to look at kentucky forum and they, for the most part, think they will face dayton. Except for one guy who was arguing that it would be the shocks and was trying to get others to bet pink slips at first and then settled for trying to bet $1,000. He obviously felt strongly about a shocker win. Lol

[Shocker-maniac]

I totally agree...with Dayton. But there have been some teams that get obliterated on here, reasonably or not...main reason I rarely if ever don't go elsewhere...no reason to get the blood boiling!!!:)

Agreed.

[WheatShock]

One thing these two fan bases have in common is we hate Gottlieb too. We are all shocked he is picking Dayton, because he never has anything good to say about Dayton. We don't really consider it a compliment. We think this game could go either way depending on what Flyer team shows up on both offense and defense and how we play in the first half.

I feel really good about a WSU win now that Goatlube picked the Flyers.

Lifehack: do the opposite of Dougie.

[THam]

The quickest way to get on Gottleib's bad side is to ask him what happened with the criminal case related to the theft of credit cards (to buy his girlfriend some bling at Things Remembered) when he attended Notre Dame. I have a friend who was one of Gottleib's victims.

That and the fact that he was such a horrible shooter he's the only college player I've ever seen that had opposing teams just not guard him at times.

[Stickboy46]

It's going to the wire if Wichita can keep up.

Dayton AdjTempo: 68.3 (137th in the nation)
WSU AdjTempo: 68.4 (133rd in the nation)

Dayton AdjO: 112.3 (49th in the nation)
WSU AdjO: 119.6 (12th in the nation)

Yup .. I'd sure be concerned if WSU can "keep up"

[Flyer Visitor]

Dayton AdjTempo: 68.3 (137th in the nation)
WSU AdjTempo: 68.4 (133rd in the nation)

Dayton AdjO: 112.3 (49th in the nation)
WSU AdjO: 119.6 (12th in the nation)

Yup .. I'd sure be concerned if WSU can "keep up"

First, these are both good teams. Second, I'm a big stat person, so love digging into the numbers. Third, I have to ask if the strength of conference teams impact these stats? Would these numbers be the same if they only looked at stats from top 100 opponents? In the South bracket does anyone think the winner of UD/WSU will see any team with an rpi greater than 100? I haven't looked, but there probably isn't anyone greater than 50 that are the probable match ups for the winner of UD/WSU in future rounds. IMO, This time of year season stats don't mean squat. Run the numbers that reflect the competition you will be playing in the tournament. WSU may still have the edge.

[Stickboy46]

First, these are both good teams. Second, I'm a big stat person, so love digging into the numbers. Third, I have to ask if the strength of conference teams impact these stats? Would these numbers be the same if they only looked at stats from top 100 opponents? In the South bracket does anyone think the winner of UD/WSU will see any team with an rpi greater than 100? I haven't looked, but there probably isn't anyone greater than 50 that are the probable match ups for the winner of UD/WSU in future rounds. IMO, This time of year season stats don't mean squat. Run the numbers that reflect the competition you will be playing in the tournament. WSU may still have the edge.

Adj means Adjusted. So yes strength of opponent is taken into account. It adjusts up and down to account for expected performance against an "average opponent". So those numbers you are asking for are the ones I posted.

[Flyer Visitor]

Adj means Adjusted. So yes strength of opponent is taken into account. It adjusts up and down to account for expected performance against an "average opponent". So those numbers you are asking for are the ones I posted.

Didn't know that, so thanks. I was looking at it from a perspective of stats from tournament teams, and really stats from the tournament teams likely to win a game. Nobody that I know runs those stats. Dayton is 6-3 against tournament teams and I believe (?) you are 1-4. I would guess the stats from these games might tell a different story, but maybe not. And if we take out the teams in these two records that are not likely to win a tournament game, I think the numbers change again. But maybe not. Logic just makes me lean towards that opinion.

[GreatWhiteBuffalo]

Didn't know that, so thanks. I was looking at it from a perspective of stats from tournament teams, and really stats from the tournament teams likely to win a game. Nobody that I know runs those stats. Dayton is 6-3 against tournament teams and I believe (?) you are 1-4. I would guess the stats from these games might tell a different story, but maybe not. And if we take out the teams in these two records that are not likely to win a tournament game, I think the numbers change again. But maybe not. Logic just makes me lean towards that opinion.

1-3 (Louisville, Sparti, Oklahoma State). Other loss was in conference to ISUr and they did not make the cut.

[SHOCKvalue]

Nobody that I know runs those stats.

Are you serious?

People who make a living betting on sports use advanced metrics first and foremost. It's why you're an underdog in this game (in spite of the higher seed), and why Vandy, Arizona, and Miami were also our dogs last year. Then Indiana and Kansas were our underdogs the year before that. I could go on and on and on with results-based evidence showing advanced metrics being the stronger indicator of WSU's end results, as compared to RPI-based projections. The RPI is essentially dying at the end of this year for a reason.

There is a huge correlation between WSU's regular season, as well as NCAA tournament results, with our kenpom numbers. Ironically, no one ever mentions what our regular season RPI Top 50 or 100 records are these past few five years where we've won 9 NCAA tournament games, had a F4, S16, #1 seed, and beat the likes of Pitt, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Indiana, Kansas, and Arizona, but what do you know... each one of those years we finished in the kenpom top 10/15. Sorta like right now with us sitting at kenpom #8.

[Stickboy46]

Didn't know that, so thanks. I was looking at it from a perspective of stats from tournament teams, and really stats from the tournament teams likely to win a game. Nobody that I know runs those stats. Dayton is 6-3 against tournament teams and I believe (?) you are 1-4. I would guess the stats from these games might tell a different story, but maybe not. And if we take out the teams in these two records that are not likely to win a tournament game, I think the numbers change again. But maybe not. Logic just makes me lean towards that opinion.

You can fudge the numbers however you want. You would then be taking WSU's November/December VS You all the way throughout the year. You aren't playing the Nov/Dec WSU.

Your 6-3 looks good until you realize that your wins were against 9 Seed Vandy at home (they aren't a 9 seed and aren't a tourney team, 34 KP), 10 Seed VCU (52 KP) at home, 11 Seed Rhode Island x2 (37 KP), 13 Seed ETSU at home (64 KP), 13 Seed Winthrop at home (112 KP) . Your 3 losses are to 8 seed Northwestern (39 KP), 7 Seed St Marys (14 KP), and 10 Seed VCU

So looking at the tourney teams you beat .. Do you really think ANY of those teams are better than WSU? Not sure why you would only pick those games to compare against.

Your closest comparable game is your HOME loss to Saint Marys. We both played exactly 1 team with a top half seed. 7 Seed St. Marys for you (4 point home loss), 2 seed Lousiville for us (10 point Neutral Loss)

[WuDrWu]

I don't really know how much better the A10 was this year. Not saying they weren't better, but St Louis was worse than any Valley team I saw, and there were 3 teams WORSE than St Louis in the A10.

I'm not saying the A10 wasn't better, but if so, only marginally. WSU likely goes 16-2, 17-1 in the A10 this season, just like the Valley, depending on schedule. Make no mistake though, WSU would have been favored in every game, regardless.