Exempt Tourney Performance Under Marshall

[Steeleshocker]

4-10
18-5

The first record is WSU in exempt tournaments the past 8 years vs top 100.
The second record is WSU in all other non-con games the past 8 years vs the top 100.

WSU doesn't seem to have a problem winning against good competition in November and December, so long as those games aren't part of exempt tourneys.
#37 UNLV in fall of '11,
@#18 VCU in fall of '12,
@#35 St. Louis in fall of '13,
#33 Utah in fall of '15.

Those were all some very good wins. Also, note that 3 of the 5 non-con losses were to teams in the top 30. It's just really weird that there is such a difference in trends, but there is no denying that the difference exists.

This would seem to support Kai's point that having the games on back to back to back days is not conducive to how detailed of scouting reports we execute. Given at least a few days to prepare the Shockers have done very well.

Although this year I think some players just had a bad couple of days and we still are trying to figure out our identity.

[Dave Stalwart]

I think KU's success is statistically irrelevant because they play in the Big 12 where there is no defense. Therefore it all has to be thrown out. :)

[shockmonster]

JH4P? If you had even an oz. of guts, you'd call into Coach M's show and ask him for his opinion on why he can't win exempt tournament games in early season games. Most on here tend to agree with the premise that our players need extra time to learn his system but you refuse to buy it. I'll bet Coach would know. :)

[ShockingButTrue]

JH4P? If you had even an oz. of guts, you'd call into Coach M's show and ask him for his opinion on why he can't win exempt tournament games in early season games. Most on here tend to agree with the premise that our players need extra time to learn his system but you refuse to buy it. I'll bet Coach would know. :)

Not only that, which he won't, but ask why the Shockers performance's have been so disappointing against such inferior teams.

[im4wsu]

Not only that, which he won't, but ask why the Shockers performance's have been so disappointing against such inferior teams.

While he's at it, ask about free throws roo

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

So, let's either agree to that premise, or see you start that thread as well.

No, I don't agree to that premise. I think there is enough data to *start* to draw conclusions in both cases.

Sure, I'll do the other thread too if you want to see it. No time today, but soon enough. And I'm assigning you to personally reply to all the trolling responses Fever makes in that thread.

I'll look forward to Doc's post telling us how that thread is statistically irrelevant too.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Most on here tend to agree with the premise that our players need extra time to learn his system but you refuse to buy it.

If Marshall's players need more time to learn the system, why do they do so well in November and December outside of exempt tourneys? 18-5 vs top 100 is excellent.

[Kel Varnsen]

WSU's performance under HCGM in March is much more consistent with the overall body of work (KenPom, Sagarin, etc.) than WSU's performance in exempt tournaments. While they are both small sample sizes, the team's performance in March falls more within a reasonable range than in exempt tournaments.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

WSU's performance under HCGM in March is much more consistent with the overall body of work (KenPom, Sagarin, etc.) than WSU's performance in exempt tournaments. While they are both small sample sizes, the team's performance in March falls more within a reasonable range than in exempt tournaments.

Exactly. So the question is simply "does this group of data have a rhyme or reason, or is it merely a large outlier?" The sample size is just starting to get large enough that it becomes hard to casually dismiss as an outlier. It may still be merely an outlier, but its not an easy, obvious conclusion to reach.

[ShockdaWorld]

This reminds me a bit of a discussion from last year about why the B12-2 underperforms during NCAA tournament time. Many of us concluded that they were simply overrated and that they didn't know how to win against teams that play tough defense. Everyone that didn't agree with that assessment agreed that there just wasn't enough data to reach a conclusion, too small of a sample size. This looks to be the same type of discussion. Those that want there to be a reason that the team has a "disappointing" record in the exempt tourneys will find something to go with. Those that don't will agree that it's too small of a sample size. It's possible that either side could be right or wrong. It all depends on what you consider to not be "too small of a sample size." And it appears that it depends on which side of the discussion your opinion sits.

[ShockerFever]

Why does WSU perform so badly during the third week of January, on the road, east of the Mississippi?

[Cdizzle]

Why does WSU perform so badly during the third week of January, on the road, east of the Mississippi?

Not surprisingly, it's actually the same answer.






Janssen.

[pie n eye]

Record bad. Marshall bad. What mean nuance?

You can crunch numbers until you're blue in the face but it's a waste of time. The only way you can truly answer this pointless question is to go back and watch each game individually. Basketball games aren't played on paper and this isn't some massive computer simulation. Each game is it's own entity with many variables.

[RoyalShock]

Record bad. Marshall bad. What mean nuance?

You can crunch numbers until you're blue in the face but it's a waste of time. The only way you can truly answer this pointless question is to go back and watch each game individually. Basketball games aren't played on paper and this isn't some massive computer simulation. Each game is it's own entity with many variables.

Yet, there's a very important post-season tournament played every year, the teams which are selected based mostly on records and data/paper, not watching every single game.

[ShockerFever]

Yet, there's a very important post-season tournament played every year, the teams which are selected based mostly on records and data/paper, not watching every single game.

And yet WSU has reached said post season tournament each of the last 5 years during the period of question, despite all of the disappointing "woes".