Exempt Tourney Performance Under Marshall

[WuShock16]

I'm just astonished when I see all of the license plates, the caps, and jackets, and most of all the WSU shirts that one sees everywhere. A decade ago, it was had to spot any at all.

Yep. It seemed like the only place you could have a plethora of WSU merchandise was the University Bookstore. Many more options now.

[Cdizzle]

Michigan State's Freshmen have averaged more minutes than all of WSU's newcomers (all classes combined) so far this year.
LSU's Freshmen + their 1 transfer (Jr) have averaged more minutes than WSU's newcomers.
Yes, WSU plays more Juco transfers than most top 25 teams, but many top 25 teams give their Freshmen more minutes than the Shox tend to do. I'm not so sure the newcomer angle is applicable here to describe the Shocker's woes.

Are you counting Shamet as a newcomer?

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Are you counting Shamet as a newcomer?

Yes. With Shamet included, WSU averages 75 minutes per game (out of 200 total) from "newcomers". MSU is averaging 80 minutes per game from Freshmen.

No, not a big difference, but remember, all I'm trying to do is disprove Kung Wu's assertion that WSU is somehow at a disadvantage due to more newcomers. I don't believe that to generally be the case.

[jdshock]

Michigan State's Freshmen have averaged more minutes than all of WSU's newcomers (all classes combined) so far this year.
LSU's Freshmen + their 1 transfer (Jr) have averaged more minutes than WSU's newcomers.
Yes, WSU plays more Juco transfers than most top 25 teams, but many top 25 teams give their Freshmen more minutes than the Shox tend to do. I'm not so sure the newcomer angle is applicable here to describe the Shocker's woes.

Yeah, I have a hard time believing that argument. Many teams in the top 25 have huge turnover. I'm not recommending anyone do the research (because I'm probably not going to do it), but I think it would be interesting to know how much newcomers really affect early season performance. Are teams that lose more starters underperforming earlier in the season? Do teams like UK, which frequently lose all or most of their starters, also underperform in the exempt tourneys? Does the top 25 underperform as a whole in the exempt tourneys?

Assuming it's not a fluke, and assuming newcomers don't explain a lot of it, I'll put forth a theory: my inclination is that our teams have tended to perform worse in low recovery-time situations (back-to-back games in STL, exempt tourneys, and maybe even the odd games in the NCAA tournament like the round of 32). I don't think we really play a shorter bench than other teams, so I'm not exactly sure why that would be. Maybe our defensive focus seriously wears out our players even if we play more individuals than some other teams. It could be that our scouting and game-planning are better than just about any other team in the country. I've always felt more comfortable in games like the round of 64 or the sweet 16 because it gives us a full week to prepare, and we seem to benefit the most from that.

[shockmonster]

I think that the reasons for the past two years is apparent. Neither I nor you, know the other teams like we know the Shockers so it more difficult to analyze their teams. But statistics alone (minutes, etc.) show the entire story. That is why knowing our team (which Ggg knows them better than any of us).

Last year, our main leader was not in the tourney so we played a lot of players who we didn't know (Taylor, Duff, etc. who weren't ready to play imo and weren't 5* ready like Michigan State had in the tourney) in positions and roles that were foreign to them, and Landry Shamet and Conner were probably most ready to have a role although not the leadership role, and Ron Baker played a position that he was limited in at that time where he had to lead, score, and play a lot of minutes. Ron tired out by the end of the tourney.

This year, we had new players learning new roles against high level talent, and we didn't have the toughness to pull it off. We were very close and there is a fine line to winning and losing.

The year we lost of UCONN, we had Toure playing point guard (a position that didn't really suit him) and juco players that weren't ready. Again, other elite teams just plug in 5* players in with other players who have some experience. Our 3* and sometimes 4* players have to refine the skills they bring to college and are not ready immediately.

The other years, we just weren't talented enough and have often plugged in players like Toure as a Freshman who was a borderline 2*, 3* player.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

The other years, we just weren't talented enough and have often plugged in players like Toure as a Freshman who was a borderline 2*, 3* player.

That 2011-2012 squad, with 5 experienced seniors who eventually earned a 5 seed, wasn't "talented enough" to beat the likes of Alabama and Temple in Puerto Rico?
That 2014-2015 squad, with Carter, Cotton, VanVleet, and Baker all as upperclassmen who eventually beat KU in March, wasn't "talented enough" to avoid OT with Hawaii and then a loss to George Washington in Maui?

Nope. Don't buy that argument one bit. You can make excuses for the UConn loss, or last year's injuries, but that still leaves plenty of disappointing results from really good teams with experienced upperclassman leading the way and the proven talent to have done much better.

P.S. Toure Murry was a Freshman in 2008-2009. My analysis wrote off that year as a rebuilding year for Marshall. I didn't count that one against him.

[shockmonster]

That 2011-2012 squad, with 5 experienced seniors who eventually earned a 5 seed, wasn't "talented enough" to beat the likes of Alabama and Temple in Puerto Rico?
That 2014-2015 squad, with Carter, Cotton, VanVleet, and Baker all as upperclassmen who eventually beat KU in March, wasn't "talented enough" to avoid OT with Hawaii and then a loss to George Washington in Maui?

Nope. Don't buy that argument one bit. You can make excuses for the UConn loss, or last year's injuries, but that still leaves plenty of disappointing results from really good teams with experienced upperclassman leading the way and the proven talent to have done much better.

P.S. Toure Murry was a Freshman in 2008-2009. My analysis wrote off that year as a rebuilding year for Marshall. I didn't count that one against him.

2011-12 team was when Toure played out of position and UCONN got a few breaks we couldn't overcome. As for the other year you mentioned, we just sucked. As for your arguments, I'm tired of your obviously stabs st Ggg and how he builds our teams at the beginning of the year. He has us ready to play anyone I'm March, but your agenda bypasses those obvious facts.

[ShockerFever]

Are we gonna have a statistical logarithmic thread after every loss or set of losses this year?

[WuShock16]

2011-12 team was when Toure played out of position and UCONN got a few breaks we couldn't overcome. we just sucked. As for your arguments, I'm tired of your obviously stabs st Ggg and how he builds our teams at the beginning of the year. He has us ready to play anyone I'm March, but your agenda bypasses those obvious facts.

The UConn game was 2010-11 season.

[shock]

This thread is still going?

[shockmonster]

The UConn game was 2010-11 season.

Alright, you should have just corrected me and Alabama and Temple were the teams when he played out of position. :)

Since you made me post on this stupid thread once more, this will be my last post no matter if I made a mistake or not.

[Kel Varnsen]

My thoughts:

One factor could be the fact that it's early season, and therefore, there isn't a whole lot of data/film available on the teams we could play and I think scouting has been outstanding for the most part while Marshall has been at WSU. While scouting has been good, sometimes in-game adjustments aren't as quick with Marshall as they could be (not that I'm necessarily complaining). That hurts when you play 3 games in 3 days.

I also think factors can vary from year to year. So it may not be one particular factor each year. And again, in small sample sizes that are <10% of the entire season, weird stuff happens*. Sometimes, these instances are simply aberrations and correct themselves over the course of the season.

*This applies for the NCAA tournament as well.

[Bluzrover]

Assuming it's not a fluke, and assuming newcomers don't explain a lot of it, I'll put forth a theory: my inclination is that our teams have tended to perform worse in low recovery-time situations (back-to-back games in STL, exempt tourneys, and maybe even the odd games in the NCAA tournament like the round of 32). I don't think we really play a shorter bench than other teams, so I'm not exactly sure why that would be. Maybe our defensive focus seriously wears out our players even if we play more individuals than some other teams.

I think this has an awful lot to do with it as well, both for exempt tourneys as well as the Valley tourney and NCAAs. 3G's brand of defensive basketball is relentless and I think even for a team as deep as the current roster that defensive effort takes its toll, especially on the offensive side of play and in a stretch of games separated by less than 24 hours. I get it, these are young men who have far more stamina than an old fart such as myself, but it certainly has an effect. I think we saw that in last year's tourney game against Miami.

[ShockingButTrue]

That 2011-2012 squad, with 5 experienced seniors who eventually earned a 5 seed, wasn't "talented enough" to beat the likes of Alabama and Temple in Puerto Rico?
That 2014-2015 squad, with Carter, Cotton, VanVleet, and Baker all as upperclassmen who eventually beat KU in March, wasn't "talented enough" to avoid OT with Hawaii and then a loss to George Washington in Maui?

Nope. Don't buy that argument one bit. You can make excuses for the UConn loss, or last year's injuries, but that still leaves plenty of disappointing results from really good teams with experienced upperclassman leading the way and the proven talent to have done much better.

P.S. Toure Murry was a Freshman in 2008-2009. My analysis wrote off that year as a rebuilding year for Marshall. I didn't count that one against him.

Temple beat Duke the following week. The University of Hawaii is in Honolulu, not Maui. The tournament was on their home court.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Alright, you should have just corrected me and Alabama and Temple were the teams when he played out of position. :)

Since you made me post on this stupid thread once more, this will be my last post no matter if I made a mistake or not.

Nope. Joe Ragland played 37 minutes of PG vs Alabama in Puerto Rico. You seem to be completely mixed up on years regarding Toure.