Exempt Tourney Performance Under Marshall

[FadedCrown]

So we perform best when it matters? Color me shocked!

[Kel Varnsen]

Updated to include Maui 2018

Last 9 exempt tournaments:
vs. KenPom top 25: 0-4
vs. KenPom 26-50: 3-5
vs. KenPom 51-100: 2-2

It also should be noted that one of those losses came without McDuffie, and three of those losses came without Fred VanVleet. And a decent amount of losses were within a possession or two at the end (UConn, Alabama, USC, Michigan State, Temple).

[Shock Top]

Updated to include Maui 2018

Last 9 exempt tournaments:
vs. KenPom top 25: 0-4
vs. KenPom 26-50: 3-5
vs. KenPom 51-100: 2-2

The contrast with performance in March still intrigues me, and this year has only added more data to the set.

This certainly is puzzling. It's also puzzling all the times they lost in STL too (Hopefully Orlando, Memphis, and Ft. Worth aren't cursed). I know three games in three days is always going to be tough, but they do seem to have the basketball Gods against them.

Some games, they've have been close. Other years, they've had bad luck with illness or injuries (I got to witness the 0-3 Orlando trip live). Sometimes, they've had bad luck (banked threes and FT bounces). Others, they've just gotten flat screwed (1.9).

You think, they would have it bounce their way once. Though, I would rather have the Gods on our side in March/April than in November/December.

[AndShock]

It also should be noted that one of those losses came without McDuffie, and three of those losses came without Fred VanVleet. And a decent losses were within a possession or two at the end (UConn, Alabama, USC, Michigan State, Temple).

Now I’m curious to see Marshall’s performance in games decided by < 5 points or whatever the “close game” criteria is.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Marshall in games decided by 5 pts or less
29-34 since 2010 (same timeframe we've been discussing in this thread)
36-49 since 2008 (full career at WSU)

[JayPak]

It's a lot better than Greg McDermott's record in close games.

[Dan]

Now I’m curious to see Marshall’s performance in games decided by < 5 points or whatever the “close game” criteria is.

This is a more interesting discussion. With a stronger conference, you would think we're set up to have a lot more close games this year.

[Aargh]

Is it just me or do the Shox always seem to be a bit lethargic in Hawaii? This was a great result compared to the last time we played there.

[Shocker_Power]

Is it just me or do the Shox always seem to be a bit lethargic in Hawaii?

Too much poi will do that to a person.

[ShockerPrez]

It may just be me, but it always seems like we play off a bit when the start times aren't at 7pm, NCAA tournament aside. Our BBIQ and shooting percentage seem to get worse the farther the game is from 7pm. Again, could just be me, but that is always my perception. Now it may correlate with the fact that we just are usually playing better teams at those times, but just my perception.

[ShockTalk]

It also should be noted that one of those losses came without McDuffie, and three of those losses came without Fred VanVleet. And a decent amount of losses were within a possession or two at the end (UConn, Alabama, USC, Michigan State, Temple).

I believe another game we were without Hannah.

[ShockTalk]

Of course, @Jamar Howard 4 President's "close games" could have a number of important variables. Was the opponent better, the same, or not as good as the Shockers. Did we have any key player missing, did they? Home, away, neutral? And combinations of these and probably other important factors. How do the close games compare with games 6+ points either way including variables. It's really hard to truly evaluate those close games on just face value, IMO.

[ShockAzs]

We already know teams that bank in 3 pointers against us are destined to win. Like seriously, how does this happen [as often as it does]?

[AZ Shocker]

Variables? Yes. How many of those losses come from teams with not only us missing some "players" (health)....but against how many 4- star players from our competition???

[Play Angry]

Games decided by 5 or less are more or less coin flips from a statistical perspective. We have simply been unlucky IMO, and as the sample size grows I expect the results will lurch toward .500.

[DUShock]

PlayAngry Your post reminded me of long ago viewed post on probabilities of victory by the Society for American Baseball Research on the probabilities of victory for a head-to-head match-up. An interesting read if you are into stats <ahem> Jamar Howard 4 President SB Shock Ricky Del Rio & others. It would be nice to see a data set for DI collegiate basketball

http://sabr.org/research/probabiliti...-team-matchups