The Rule of 1

[ShockCrazy]

Yes, 2010 was hurt by horrid non-conference scheduling and some bad losses...headlined by the loss at Evansville, which Lutz called one of the worst losses in WSU history.

2011 was characterized as the year of missed opportunities. We got SCREWED against UConn. We played pretty well at San Diego State but had a bad stretch of a couple minutes, which spelled our doom. We had two close losses versus Missouri State. We had another questionable reffing outcome against VCU. Finally, we still had a chance to win in STL and led Indiana State in the semifinal before we fell apart. As Gregg said many times during the NIT stretch, we needed to bloom where we were planted. Frankly, we didn't deserve to be in the NCAA with all the missed opportunities that we had. Thankfully, the guys took it upon themselves to make the best of the situation and cut down the nets at MSG.

I would argue there was only one bad loss, the aforementioned Evansville game. Also something else I nearly forgot regarding a bit of bad luck(or getting screwed) for the 2010 team, which was Clevin Hannah's absurd suspension. This of course caused him to miss the first 3 games including the crucial game against Pitt(could have also got a SOS boost playing Texas following instead of Iowa). Oh how things could have been different.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Thank you @ShockCrazy. Some of those numbers match my numbers precisely. Others are slightly different, but none are as positive as CBB's.

My one question is NC SOS. Like I said, I hadn't been able to previously find any NC SOS data from RPI sites, but how in the world was WSU's rank 77 that year? Here is their schedule using RPI ranks of opponents:

Home
192, 212, 339, 241, 308, 81, 49

Neutral
14, 141

Road
3, 227 (and Division 2 Chaminade, which doesn't affect RPI)

A NC SOS of 77 can't be right, can it?

[ShockCrazy]

Thank you @ShockCrazy. Some of those numbers match my numbers precisely. Others are slightly different, but none are as positive as CBB's.

My one question is NC SOS. Like I said, I hadn't been able to previously find any NC SOS data from RPI sites, but how in the world was WSU's rank 77 that year? Here is their schedule using RPI ranks (excluding non D1 Chaminade):

Home
192, 212, 339, 241, 308, 81, 49

Neutral
14, 141

Road
3, 227

A NC SOS of 77 can't be right, can it? I can promise you it wasn't 55 like @CBB_Fan: said it was.

Yeah something seems off. But I trust that those sheets are what the NCAA used. And looking at a teams with a similar NCSOS and slightly higher RPI like VCU or UAB, it lines up. Takes some annoying cross referencing though. This years NCSOS 77 is Maryland and looking at their schedule one true road game, it seems in the ballpark.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2011/schedule/Virginia-Commonwealth

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2011/schedule/UAB

[WuShock16]

I would argue there was only one bad loss, the aforementioned Evansville game. Also something else I nearly forgot regarding a bit of bad luck(or getting screwed) for the 2010 team, which was Clevin Hannah's absurd suspension. This of course caused him to miss the first 3 games including the crucial game against Pitt(could have also got a SOS boost playing Texas following instead of Iowa). Oh how things could have been different.

Road losses at Bradley (105) and Creighton (115) weren't awful, but the road loss at Drake (178) was also one that got the gag reflexes going.

And yes, I am still pissed about the situation with Clevin. From what I remember hearing, it was a procedural error from staff members that caused that suspension. Yet, John Wall received improper benefits and only got three games...and an exhibition game counted as one of the three.

"The NCAA is so mad at Kentucky it will probably slap another two years probation on Cleveland State.''

[Wild Heiny]

JH4P - Do you think that a loss in the Valley tourney puts us in Dayton at this point? Our resume to me seems to be one that fits the "play in" standard to me. You think the committee places us in the first four to make us play our way in against quality competition?

[CBB_Fan]

I'm not sure if @CBB_Fan is going to respond or not to my previous post. I'll go ahead and clarify a couple things. @ShockerFever, you'll enjoy this.

Earlier in this thread, I caught @CBB_Fan 's mistake identifying 2011 WSU as KenPom #25, when in reality that was their post-NIT championship ranking, and #56 was their selection sunday rank. Big difference, and he never responded to admit his error. Normally I would chalk this up to a simple mistake, but then he posted the team A vs team B blind resume comparison, and I found some funny business going on.

Resume B is clearly 2016 WSU, and the numbers appear accurate.

Based on previous conversation in this thread and numerous similarities, it is obvious that resume A is an "ATTEMPT" at 2011 WSU's resume. @CBB_Fan was clearly intending to show similarities between this year's resume and the NIT champs from 5 years ago. However, in regards to the 2011 resume he identified...

He overstated RPI by 8 spots. It was 60, not 52. I verified this with 2 different RPI sources.
He overstated SOS by 11 spots. It was 107, not 96. I verified this with 2 different RPI sources.
He wildly overstated OOC SOS. I can not find old OOC SOS data on any RPI sites, but KenPom's site ranks it #266. That team played 7 non-con games vs teams 200+, so we know the OOC SOS had to have been pretty poor. How @CBB_Fan came up with a rank of 55 is beyond me.
He was very close on scoring margin, but I calculate +10, not +11. Rounding error, or fudging the numbers ever so slightly to favor his argument?
Wins/losses match exactly, and I mean EXACTLY, with 1 exception. The loss to #6 was really to #14. Otherwise, team A matches perfectly with 2011 WSU. I guess he assumed no one would notice the one tweak. The precise matches of every other win and loss to the RPI data I found is what tells me that he absolutely didn't make up resume A out of thin air. He used 2011 WSU and then modified it.

So, I'd love to hear a response from the man himself. You followed up a big mistake on KenPom ranking (25 vs 56) with a full "resume" of the 2011 team, tweaking the data on nearly every line making that team look better than they were. All the errors were subtle, except the OOC SOS, which was drastically wrong. Had you not been so wildly inacurrate on OOC SOS, I might not have caught your other, smaller tweaks, at all.

@CBB_Fan, it really does appear that you are being dishonest to try and support your case that 2016 WSU is in danger of looking like 2011 WSU and going to the NIT. I hesitated to make this accusation, but you've had 24 hours and not responded to my original request in post #40 of this thread. I'm willing to hear you out if you have a legitimate defense, and I'll be anxiously waiting until then.

Sincerely,

A fan of the truth

Each and EVERY "mistake" comes from using www.waybackmachine.org and trying to find RPI from a period between our loss to Indiana State and our first NIT game. You assume malice when the truth is that I simply could not find a single accurate source for pre-tournament RPIs. By assuming, you reveal your own bias.

Examples of how incomplete the records I looked at were:

https://web.archive.org/web/20110801000000*/http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/weeklyrpi/2011MBBrpi1.html

https://web.archive.org/web/20110515000000*/http://warrennolan.com/

https://web.archive.org/web/*/http://warrennolan.com/

https://web.archive.org/web/*/http://warrennolan.com/basketball/

https://web.archive.org/web/20110615000000*/http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2011/rpi

https://web.archive.org/web/20110215000000*/https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/rpi/

https://web.archive.org/web/*/https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/rpi/

https://web.archive.org/web/*/http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/sort/RPI

https://web.archive.org/web/20110715000000*/http://www.rpiforecast.com

As to my agenda, I truly did not care about what the stated outcome was for both teams. My argument was that ShockerFever literally cannot make a point. And you proved it. He couldn't even post an opinion on those two teams. He needed you to do the thinking for him, which is EXACTLY what I thought would happen. I didn't respond to your post because I wanted to give ShockerFever a chance to try to think for himself.

In case you are wondering, some numbers came from ESPN's RPI because it was the one source I found that seemed to give numbers for 2011 pre-tournament (judging by 22-6 W/L and other win/loss stats) without using waybackmachine. It is bugged and gives the teams we've played against this year on the bottom, so I had to use other sites to try to find RPIs for each team we won and lost to. You can see that this is clearly the source for the non-con SOS number. It is quite likely that while they did not adjust the W/Ls (N, H, A, Top 25, 50, 100, 150) they did let the NIT games effect the RPI numbers; I didn't check for that. The rest of the numbers came from a hodge-podge of mismatched sources with a variety of dates (some might have been effected by conference tournaments, for example).

Again, my point wasn't to highlight whether or not the two teams were similar and push my previous message that we'd miss the tournament. Even in my loaded question I stated the 2016 team would be an at-large bid and the 2011 team would be NIT bound. The point was that ShockerFever couldn't spend even 30s to spit out even the most basic analysis or generate even a single original thought; he needed you to think for him.

[Ricardo del Rio]

March 13.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

@CBB_Fan, clearly you put in some work researching. If it was an honest attempt, fine. Hopefully you can see how suspicions would rise when nearly every single data point of yours erred in the same direction, and after you had already made an error about WSU's 2011 KenPom rank just a few post prior. Also, don't tell me your only agenda was to point out @ShockerFever's refusal to be analytical.

We were a #4 seed in the NIT with basically this exact same resume. You'd have to be crazy to call it anything but terrible.

There is a reason you chose to fight so hard looking for 5 year old data. You could have chosen to compare 2 teams from 2016, but in the process of "exposing" Fever, clearly you wanted to continue laying out supposed similarities between the Shox of 2016 and 2011.

Even in my loaded question I stated the 2016 team would be an at-large bid and the 2011 team would be NIT bound.

I'm not seeing where you made this 2011 vs 2016 distinction in your "loaded question".

Finally, if you care to know, I utilized http://realtimerpi.com/2010-2011/rpi_Men.html I will probably use @ShockCrazy's link to the NCAA's archive of RPIs in the future.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

@Wild Heiny, here are some estimations/predictions based on WSU's remaining possible outcomes. Note that KenPom is harder to predict than RPI because it depends on margin of victory, not just W's and L's. Theoretically, the Shox could go 4-2, but lose twice by a point and win 4 times by 50 points each, and see their KenPom rise into the single digits.

Remaining Record	Final Record	RPI	KenPom	Seed	Comments
7-0	26-7	26	10	6/7	Win Out
6-1	25-8	32	14	7/8/9	Lose 1 in Regular Season, Win St. Louis
6-1	25-8	35	14	8/9/10	Lose in MVC Finals
5-1	24-8	44	17	9/10/11	Lose in MVC Semis
5-2	24-9	47	22	12/NIT	Lose 1 in Regular Season, Lose in MVC Finals
4-2	23-9	53	25	NIT	Lose 1 in Regular Season, Lose in MVC Semis

The play-in game ain't happening unless the Shox lose in the Semis, and even then, I doubt they fall that far.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Shox went 5-1 down the stretch. I still stand by the previous post, which is now 2 weeks old.

Note, current RPI = 48, KenPom 11. I'm honestly surprised their KenPom stayed that high, which is good news.

[OregonShocker]

Shox went 5-1 down the stretch. I still stand by the previous post, which is now 2 weeks old.

Note, current RPI = 48, KenPom 11. I'm honestly surprised their KenPom stayed that high, which is good news.

Gotta be due to the fact that the loss still showed incredible defense.

[kochHead]

Shox went 5-1 down the stretch. I still stand by the previous post, which is now 2 weeks old.

Note, current RPI = 48, KenPom 11. I'm honestly surprised their KenPom stayed that high, which is good news.

So...9, 10, or 11? I say 10 seed.

Good work BTW. I'll give you credit for best bracketologist in the land when we get in. If we don't get in, YOU'RE DEAD TO ME!

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

From last year:

I'll keep this short and sweet. WSU has one more loss to give if they want to make the NCAA Tourney. Win the next 5, or win the final 3 in St. Louis. Either will be enough. Anything less won't.

WSU has 7 losses today. 8 losses on selection Sunday and they get in. 9 and they don't. Simple as that.

Sorry folks, but I once again have to invoke the rule of 1. Not excited to be doing so in mid-January. Last year, I was right that WSU could afford 1 loss starting Feb 14th. They ultimately saved that 1 loss for the semi-finals in St. Louis and got their at-large bid. Did some nice damage in the tourney too.

This year, WSU has 4 losses to date. 5 losses on selection Sunday and they get in. 6 and they don't. Gotta string together the next 12 W's or win 3 in St. Louis. Simple as that.

(I'd add one small caveat. 16-2 in the MVC, either a shared or outright conference championship, and then a Finals loss to ISUr in St. Louis would give WSU hope on Selection Sunday. I don't think it would be enough, but it would be interesting. Anything less and it is NIT all the way.)

[jdshock]

From last year:


Sorry folks, but I once again have to invoke the rule of 1. Not excited to be doing so in mid-January. Last year, I was right that WSU could afford 1 loss starting Feb 14th. They ultimately saved that 1 loss for the semi-finals in St. Louis and got their at-large bid. Did some nice damage in the tourney too.

This year, WSU has 4 losses to date. 5 losses on selection Sunday and they get in. 6 and they don't. Gotta string together the next 12 W's or win 3 in St. Louis. Simple as that.

(I'd add one small caveat. 16-2 in the MVC, either a shared or outright conference championship, and then a Finals loss to ISUr in St. Louis would give WSU hope on Selection Sunday. I don't think it would be enough, but it would be interesting. Anything less and it is NIT all the way.)

Somewhat relevant to this: is a bad loss worse than a good win is good?

My instinct is that we would've been better off having beat ISUr or Louisville but lost to Drake or someone instead. Do the numbers back that up?

[60Shock]

At this point the team can't leave anything to chance.

Just win the damn Valley and March Madness and move on.