2016 Bracketology

[Play Angry]

Lunardi's Latest. #7 seed in St. Lou. Sign me up for this bracket now...

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask.../iteration/237

Seriously, that would be an amazing draw.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Daily dose of optimism.

WSU's current RPI is 48, but it should get better. Using rpiforecast.com's RPI wizard and projecting possible opponents, if WSU wins the next 2, then beats #8 MSU, #4 SIU, and loses to #2 Evansville in the Finals, their projected RPI would be 31. Even a loss in the semis to SIU would still achieve a projected RPI of 38.

Final KenPom rank would depend on the margin of victory/defeat in those games, but as of today, WSU is ranked #10. If WSU keeps stomping people, it may continue to climb.

Jerry Palm is wrong. WSU is in short of something catastrophic like losing 2 more games. End of story.

[Horn28Clem30]

Daily dose of optimism.

WSU's current RPI is 48, but it should get better. Using rpiforecast.com's RPI wizard and projecting possible opponents, if WSU wins the next 2, then beats #8 MSU, #4 SIU, and loses to #2 Evansville in the Finals, their projected RPI would be 31. Even a loss in the semis to SIU would still achieve a projected RPI of 38.

Final KenPom rank would depend on the margin of victory/defeat in those games, but as of today, WSU is ranked #10. If WSU keeps stomping people, it may continue to climb.

Jerry Palm is wrong. WSU is in short of something catastrophic like losing 2 more games. End of story.

Jerry Palm..wrong? I can't believe it!

[ShockerFever]

Palm obviously thinks the committee values "good" wins exponentially more than it penalizes teams for "bad" losses.
If Palm is right and they just look at bubble teams resumes, blind, side-by-side we COULD be in trouble. RPI 51. 1-5 vs top 50. 3-5 vs top 100. That's not gonna impress the committee AT ALL. You've got to prove you can beat somebody good. Those top 50 losses to Tulsa and Seton Hall are going to hurt us much worse than the ones to Illinois St and UNI. Only eight chances at a top 100 win also screams MID-MAJOR which is also going to give the committee another excuse to leave us out of the field. They're going to look at that resume and say "you had six chances to beat a top 50 team and you only win one?!?!" And believe me, they don't give a crap about injuries.
I also don't think most committee members pay ANY attention to MVC games. WE know exactly how dominant the Shocks look when they mop the floor with these teams because we religiously watch every game. Do you really think most of those committee guys look at anything but P5 scores? I'm afraid we may be in more trouble than most of you here would like to believe. I hope I'm wrong.
I just don't know how much stock they put into these analytical metrics like KenPom. We better hope it's A TON, because, frankly, our win/loss resume against good teams sucks. Thanks MVC!! Our wonderful league gives us TWO chances at a top 100 win! And it's damn close to zero.

Why are you using the word "we"?

[Slalomshocker]

WSU should end up with an RPI in the 30-40 range. If they don't, its because they took a bad loss. If WSU plays in the MVC finals, they are in with an acceptable 7-10 seed, and I'd bet $$ on it being 8/9. Win out and a 6 seed is within reach. Too many teams ahead of WSU are going to lose games. i.e. Texas. Currently a 6 seed by Lunardi. Remaining games: @KSU (they are tough at home), KU, OU @OSU. They easily could drop 3 of 4 and probably go 2-2. If they dont knock of KU or OU....they are not staying on the 6 line ahead of WSU.

[ShockerFever]

Lunardi's Latest. #7 seed in St. Lou. Sign me up for this bracket now...

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask.../iteration/237

So we climb up to a #7 seed on Lunardi's bracket, while Jerry Palm continues to spew on TV last night that we need to win Arch Madness to get in.

It's making sense. Gottlieb and Palm are both CBS dickwads. They've obviously gotten "close" to one another and now share one brain when discussing WSU.

[shoxlax]

So we climb up to a #7 seed on Lunardi's bracket, while Jerry Palm continues to spew on TV last night that we need to win Arch Madness to get in.

It's making sense. Gottlieb and Palm are both CBS dickwads. They've obviously gotten "close" to one another and now share one brain when discussing WSU.

The two of them adding up to one whole brain is a stretch, Fev

[Slalomshocker]

This is going per Lunardi... which we have established he is smarter than Palm but still not that great. Here are his 6 seeds ahead of WSU and their remaining schedules. Not including conference tournaments. The only one I see not taking multiple losses is Utah.

Texas: @ KSU, OU, KU, @Ok St
Notre Dame: @Wake, @FSU, Miami, NC State
Baylor: KU, @TCU, @OU, WVU (will likely lose 2 if not 3)
Utah: Az St, Arizona, Colorado (oddly all at home)

7s
Providence: @ Seton Hall, DePaul, Creighton, @ St Johns
S. Carolina: Tenn, @Miss St, UGA, @ Arkansas (if they get credit for the wins.... this remaining schedule is weak)
California: UCLA, USC, @Arizona, @ Az St

[boltforge]

The two of them adding up to one whole brain is a stretch, Fev

And considering where they keep their brains ... o_O

It does explain why they sit so awkward in their chairs. It isn't just their head up there.

[ShockdaWorld]

Lunardi's Latest. #7 seed in St. Lou. Sign me up for this bracket now...

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask.../iteration/237

Yes please to this bracket!!!

[molly jabali]

Have ANY of these bracket experts EVER picked a perfect bracket, or even routinely 90%? I'd love evidence...

[Shockers5150]

This is a much different team, even since the uni game. They will get in, and I think it'll be because they won't lose another game. As focused as Ive seen them.

[Zubcut]

We're in 99-100 brackets that are tracked on that bracket matrix page, and that 1 dunce is clearly a huge Big12 honk, so you know he's got some issues. Only 11 of the 99 have WSU as a 12 or 13.

We're on Palm's bracket too. How many of those 100 brackets are we on only as a presumed automatic bid like his? I'm curious. Does anyone have SMU's resume from the year they were left out even though they were ranked in the Top 25?

EDIT. I found some info on SMU from 2014 who were left out. Ended the season ranked 25. Only 4 wins over top 100 but all four were over Top 25 teams (WSU has three top 100 wins and one win over Top 25 RPI). Non-conference SOS - 303! (that's what killed them). Lost last 3 games including first round of American Conference tourney. 23-9 record.

Here's a quote from the committee chair:
"It still remained a very difficult decision because when you give them the eye test, they're very good and they're very impressive to the committee. But when you start comparing the team sheets of those teams they were fighting to get into the tournament with, we sided with the other teams and the strength of schedule was a very big factor."

The sentence about the eye test concerns me a little about this years Shockers. Eye test has to be one of WSU's biggest selling points. The sentence about strength of schedule makes me feel better though. Our non-con SOS is 11 not 303. What scares me is when he talks about "comparing team sheets". The Shockers "team sheet" just doesn't look that great.

[Zubcut]

Why are you using the word "we"?

My real name is Ron Baker. (Just kidding)

Why are you using the word "are"?

I hope and pray you people are right and I'm wrong. I just know how little respect mid-majors get from the committee unless they have NO excuses to leave you out. Unfortunately I'm afraid the Shockers gave them one. 1-5 against top 50 teams is all some of those idiots need. I just worry they are just looking for the slightest reason to put another crappy P5 team in ahead of WSU. All some of these guys ask over and over is " Who have they beaten? Who have they beaten?" Not "Who have they not lost to?" Unfortunately, those arguing on the Shockers behalf (and there will be some) are not going to have an answer that will satisfy them. It's going to be "Utah" and crickets after that. If you don't think some of these committee members think EXACTLY like Palm you are crazy. They look with disdain at mid-majors. I know. I know. The only thing mid-major about WSU is their conference. I hope enough committee members think the same way.
Just win Arch Madness and remove the drama.

[DwShock]

Folks, we have not really focused on one key detail that could be a HUGE advantage for WSU. Take a look at the selection committee member list and see if you recognize anyone on the list.

I'm not sure Bruce Rasmussen is on our side.