WSU Versus Southern Illinois Predictions and Pregame Discussions

[wusphlash]

It will be interesting to see how SIU performs in a house full of expectations. Sometimes it's just easier to play when it doesn't matter. I'm betting on the guys used to playing with expectations on their backs. To be safe I'll go with a 9.5 point WSU win.

[Steeleshocker]

Some of you picking double-digit wins here are writing off SIU a little strongly. Outside of Badley, how well have we played on the road this year?

Granted we have not won a true road game outside of Bradley, but we pushed Seton Hall to overtime with a B- game. And Tulsa we did not have Fred or Conner. While we probably need to be a bit better than Wednesday, it's probably no more than Ron hitting his open shots and Markis making layups.

What i would like to see is Conner get a bit more aggressive when he comes into the game. I feel like Kelly, McDuffie, and Grady look for opportunities to make a play when they get the ball in a good spot. Conner needs to cut more aggressively off screens and start looking for those spaces to get his shot off (or penetrate and kick as he has shown a few times).

[Kung Wu]

If we got people thinking SIU is a single digit win, then what are you going to predict when we make the NCAA's and play a Villanova for instance?

75
74

[WuDrWu]

I believe our team is still a work in progress. The defense has been very, very good of late. But quick PGs have caused problems, and SIU has one, big time.

The Dawgs are also playing with supreme confidence. A lousy or average team struggles on the road at BU....SIU blows their doors off early and coasts. Well done.

Now they're at home, with a big crowd eager for a super bowl game. And with good reason.

WSU needs to get their offense going. And a decent part of that, imho, is Conner shooting more, a lot more. Since getting off the o-fer at the end of the Utah game, he's 48% from 3.

He needs to shoot more, hunt his shot and let it fly. I think he's letting the game come to him, but let's take the training wheels off.

As good as the D has been, I think we need to score 75 to win Saturday. We won't do that without Conner shooting at least 10 times.

[The Mad Hatter]

Obviously there is a big difference between a road and home game, but some reference on SIU:

1. It is easy to equate SIU and Evansville since both put up nice records against bad ooc foes, but Kenpom ranks Evansville #44 and SIU #105. EU is #41 in adjust offense and #76 in adjusted defense. Even with Bean SIU is #104 in adjusted offense and #121 in adjusted defense.
2. Speaking of those bad ooc foes, SIU tried to make EU look good on the scheduling front. EU's ooc sos ranked #301. SIU's ranked #345. There are 351 teams in D1.
3. WSU is #54 in adjusted offense. SIU has faced only 1 team that is better than that mark this year in Oakland who is #26. However, Oakland ranks #232 in adjusted defense.
4. WSU is #34 in adjusted defense. The next closest team SIU has faced is actually Bradley at #91. However, Bradley ranks #351 (remember out of 351 teams) in adjusted offense.
5. SIU has played 3 teams with adjusted offense in the top 100. They have played 11 games against teams outside of the top 200 and 4 games against teams outside the top 300. SIU has played 1 game against a team with adjusted defense in the top 100. They have played 7 games against teams outside of the top 200 and 2 games against teams outside the top 300.
6. SIU's average opponent ranks #225 in adjusted offense and #211 in adjusted defense. WSU's average opponent ranks #155 in adjusted offense and #101 in adjusted defense. In other words, even including Charleston Southern (#312 in adjusted D) and Drake (#317 in adjusted D), SIU is 20 spots worse on defense than what WSU sees on average this year.

[Dave Stalwart]

345 non conference sos? Wow

All these facts are killing my fun. It's starting to sound more like Barry scheduled way down this year in an effort to manufacture some energy with wins. I've been had.

Maybe it's not so much that SIU is "back" and more that they didn't have much of a challenge in that great looking record.

I will choose to hold out hope that his plan will work.

[1972Shocker]

A bad schedule is an RPI killer and can perhaps result in a somewhat inflated and overstated win-loss record. OTOH a bad schedule in and of itself does not necessarily indicate how good or bad you really are but it does make those judgements a little more difficult.

Anthony Beane however is the real deal. The new point guard is a nice addition. They seem to have good chemistry and if nothing else, the seem to be playing with a lot more self-confidence.

That said SIU really doesn't have a truly signature win yet. The home win over UNI seemed pretty solid at the time but has lost a bit of its luster with UNI losing to MSU on the road as well. Losing to SIU-E at home is kind of a head scratcher as well but on any given night I guess.

The two common opponents are @St. Louis and @brad:ley. WSU beat St. Louis by 15 and SIU beat them by 13 (however that was Fred's 1st game back and he was far from 100% plus Anton was out at that time). WSU won at Bradley by 27 (although they only played so-so in the 2nd half) and SIU won by 21 in Peoria. Not sure what exactly, if anything, you can take away from that.

What the Shocks can expect however is another Super Bowl effort by SIU and their fans which has become somewhat routine for the Shocks at this point.

The Shocks will need a solid effort to get out of Carbondale with a win.

[oledawg]

Looking forward to our annual WSU road game. We are in section 103 row 8. We are staying @ the Holiday Inn Conference Center. Ms Atl, son & daughter are joining us

For food i would recommend 17th Street Barbque in Murphysboro. This place is famous in southern illinois and they overnight their food all over the world. The guy who owns also has opened other locations in Marion, metro St louis and Las Vegas.
Alot of us who go back (i live in Colorado) look forward to quatros and pagliais pizza joints. Both are very close to campus.

[MSNSaluki]

345 non conference sos? Wow

All these facts are killing my fun. It's starting to sound more like Barry scheduled way down this year in an effort to manufacture some energy with wins. I've been had.

Maybe it's not so much that SIU is "back" and more that they didn't have much of a challenge in that great looking record.

I will choose to hold out hope that his plan will work.

Reverend Hinson is breaking new ground in Carbondale - this is the third straight year he's scheduled a same-season home-and-home with a POS opponent. In 2013 it was New Orleans. Last year it was Tennessee State. This year it was North Texas. So embarrassing. To be fair, Saint Louis and Murray State are down a bit this year, and they have to be on the schedule as nice regional rivals. Regardless, Hinson has shown no indication he's willing to improve the schedule.

Of course, he'll never be able to improve the schedule if he keeps recruiting so poorly. If Hinson hadn't inherited Desmar Jackson from the Chris Lowery regime (Jackson was sitting out Lowery's last season due to his transfer from Wyoming) and hadn't been able to hire Anthony Beane Sr. as an assistant on the dirt cheap (Sr. lost his job at Illinois State in early summer after Jankovich bolted for SMU and took well below average pay to have a job for the next season and give Jr. a place to play) SIU might have been the worst Division 1 program in America over the last four years. So little talent has been on hand outside of those two.

So, while this year may look good on paper there's a lot of smoke and mirrors involved.

[shocker43]

I'm going to be out of town this weekend and not around a TV for most of Saturday. Does anyone know of a website that will stream the game? The game is on CBS, not ESPN, right?

[MSNSaluki]

I'm going to be out of town this weekend and not around a TV for most of Saturday. Does anyone know of a website that will stream the game? The game is on CBS, not ESPN, right?

It was noted on Saluki Nation today ESPN3 is going to carry the game. Not sure if that's true or not but it's a possible option.

[shockmonster]

345 non conference sos? Wow.

How many Division I teams are there? 350? Who are the 5 teams whose SOS are worse than SIU? You can't make this stuff up. :)

[shoxlax]

Rodriguez was someone we really looked at last year hard. May have been even more so had Conner not joined the fold.

Kid comes from a good juco program and knows the game

[MSNSaluki]

Rodriguez was someone we really looked at last year hard. May have been even more so had Conner not joined the fold.

Kid comes from a good juco program and knows the game

SIU only got him because it was willing to gamble he would be immediately eligible to play. Rodriguez was not eligible when he arrived on campus in late August. It took until early-to-mid-September for his eligibility to be granted.

The kid has some game. He's not a great shooter and his size really limits him offensively. However, he's allowed Beane to stay mostly at the 2, he plays hard and finds a way to score 10 points a game.

IMO, SIU never would have had a shot at him if it was known in the spring he was going to be eligible immediately. Another stroke of luck for Hinson.

[another shocker]

shox in overtime.. maybe.