WSU VERSUS NOTRE DAME PREDICTIONS AND PREGAME DISCUSSIONS

[Heinro]

I watched the entire Northeastern game, and if we can recreate it we win. Tourney games can be funny so maybe it was uncharacteristic, but Northeastern had a good low post scorer who drew a ton of fouls on Notre Dame's bigs. Notre Dame also caught themselves making poor drives and poor passes that led to multiple unforced turnovers. I will say, Notre Dame had multiple opportunities to put them away, but we're not a 13. For better or worse, I really like our chances in this one (typically when I expect us to struggle we don't). Look for us to ring them up on the glass, which I think will ultimately be the difference. We will be the best defensive team they have played all season.

[OregonShocker]

We will be the best defensive team they have played all season.

I think we're the best defensive team MOST others have played all season!

[oneill2010]

Do you all have a basketball message board anywhere that has good discussion?

Edit: another shocker beat me to it

http://www.ndnation.com/boards/index.php?thepit

This is probably your best bet.

[Fozzy]

I predicted the KU game would be close and it was a blowout, so I'm going to predict this one will be close as well :) If the WSU defense is as good as they were on Sunday then it won't be close. We need to stay out of foul trouble the best we can, especially Tekele. I thought his foul trouble vs Indiana and spending a lot of time on the bench is what kept that game close. Shox by 3.

[asiseeit]

Two evenly matched teams. Thee are many variables that could decide the outcome. Just
keep playing angry, especially on defense, the boards, and balls up for grabs. Such an
entertaining season with several more to follow. Great team, great coach and great fans.
Lets keep the 30 win seasons coming. Win or lose what a great season it has been !!!!!!!!!!

[Shoxfan11]

Seems like they might be Indiana on steroids? Should be a good matchup.

[pie n eye]

Looking at their roster, they have 5 main guys that play most of the game and only 2-3 reserves getting action during the tourney thus far. We match up decent, size-wise. They have a 6-10 center, Zach August, that's really long and athletic. Darius will have his hands full. I can see Wamukota being needed this game. They start a 6-1 soph point guard, Demetrius Jackson. Fred should have the advantage here, both skill-wise and experience. The other 3 guys are all 6-5, which plays well into our roster. The 3 guys all average 10-16 pts each. I imagine Cotton will guard Grant, their leading scorer, Wessel on Connaughton and Baker on Vasturia. The 2 main guys off their bench are 6-8 Beachem and 6-7 Torres. They also have 6-5 Colson but I didn't see his name in the box score from the first 2 games of the tourney.

Colson is the guy that lit up duke in the acc tournament. He really impressed me. He reminded me a lot of Darius in that hes an undersized post man but he was way more aggressive than Darius in that game. I'm surprised he hasn't played yet, that game I saw must have been a fluke?

[KC Shox]

In evaluating Notre Dame's stats, they are very similar to Indiana. First, their strength is offense. Here are some stats to chew on:

ND Stats National Rankings; Fewest Turnovers - 22nd. Free Throw % - 28th. Assist Per Game - 32nd. Three Point Attempts Per Game - 30th. Three Point FG Average - 22nd. Overall FG Avg. - 2nd in the nation at 50.9%!!!! That particular stat is very impressive.

However, their weakness is defense. Defensive Rebounds Per Game - 115th. Offensive Rebounds Per Game - 321st. Scoring Defense - 145th. Steals Per Game - 93rd.

My first impression on ND, that Jarian Grant kid is one of the fastest players I've seen. Opponents have to respect his speed and quickness so much, they play a little off the kid to compensate. This allows him to gain space to pull the 'J', if you get too close, he'll blow right by you. The one thing I do see if that he can be too fast for his own good and may get a little bit out of control at times.

Their big man, Auguste is 6'10", there's a little size advantage there but he weighs as much as DC, so I don't see him pushing DC around.

Keys to a win, perform very well guarding the three line and be 'Johnny On The Spot' on help defense when Grant or Jackson dribble drives. Be weary of them driving and kicking out the ball to one of the white dudes who will be open for a 3. If the boyz played as spirited defense like they did against KU, quickly getting into passing lanes, rebounding hard, etc. the odds are good.

[kstarheel]

I've watched a lot of ND games (ACC kid at heart) this season. They can flat out shoot, but NO ONE in the ACC D's it up like WSU. I think this will frustrate the crap out of ND. Their PG is really good, Grant is streaky, and PC is nails... but if they aren't hitting from 3, Shox could roll them up. They won't be able to handle Cotton driving or Baker for that matter.

Shox 73
ND 64

[Phlsphr]

Another ND fan here. I signed up to pass on the message board link to the Pit, but I see someone has already done that. Like any free board you can get your drive by crazies this time of year, but there is a solid core of very knowledgeable basketball fans on that board--key posters are Taxman, Kayo, and Elkabong.

I don't know of any ND fans who are expecting an easy win. I expect a hard fought game. Watching you guys against KU was a bit like looking in the mirror: Smart unselfish team with great athletic quickness and hustle and excellent guard play. Some here are making a whole lot of ND's RPI. Fine. Our cupcakes were even softer than your cupcakes. Granted. But ND has played a lot of very good teams this year, and played them well. We are 7-1 against teams in the sweet 16, only 2 of those games were at home. Similar to Indiana? Give me a break. Haven't faced a defense anywhere near as good as WSU? Really? You guys are better defensively than UVA? Impressive. I wouldn't get your hopes up that ND will fold in the face of your admittedly very solid defense.

I expect it to be a close game, but either team could get hot and go on a run. Thus far in the tournament ND's offense has been a bit off. Will that continue? A lot may depend on the officiating. Will the officials allow (from ND's perspective) WSU to play tough physical defense, bumping, hand checks, etc.? If they swallow their whistles, it could be a tough night for the Irish. If it is a close game, one thing I will say is that ND knows how to win close games.

There will be some great matchups in this game. It should be a great game to watch. Whoever wins, I'll be pulling for them to pull a David against Goliath UK.

[washedup]

Grandparents still live here.

Knew his dad is former Sooner Harvey Grant. Who is his mom?

[KC Shox]

Another ND fan here. I signed up to pass on the message board link to the Pit, but I see someone has already done that. Like any free board you can get your drive by crazies this time of year, but there is a solid core of very knowledgeable basketball fans on that board--key posters are Taxman, Kayo, and Elkabong.

I don't know of any ND fans who are expecting an easy win. I expect a hard fought game. Watching you guys against KU was a bit like looking in the mirror: Smart unselfish team with great athletic quickness and hustle and excellent guard play. Some here are making a whole lot of ND's RPI. Fine. Our cupcakes were even softer than your cupcakes. Granted. But ND has played a lot of very good teams this year, and played them well. We are 7-1 against teams in the sweet 16, only 2 of those games were at home. Similar to Indiana? Give me a break. Haven't faced a defense anywhere near as good as WSU? Really? You guys are better defensively than UVA? Impressive. I wouldn't get your hopes up that ND will fold in the face of your admittedly very solid defense.

I expect it to be a close game, but either team could get hot and go on a run. Thus far in the tournament ND's offense has been a bit off. Will that continue? A lot may depend on the officiating. Will the officials allow (from ND's perspective) WSU to play tough physical defense, bumping, hand checks, etc.? If they swallow their whistles, it could be a tough night for the Irish. If it is a close game, one thing I will say is that ND knows how to win close games.

There will be some great matchups in this game. It should be a great game to watch. Whoever wins, I'll be pulling for them to pull a David against Goliath UK.

You guys beat Duke (TWICE!), are 9 - 3 against the tournament field and as far as I'm concerned, that casts a larger shadow than your 318 non-con SOS. The concerns I have is that you are playing close to home and shoot for such a high percentage. I'm really hoping your players are overlooking us as just another cute mid-major in your way to facing Kentucky.

[Jhook89]

This should be a very interesting game. ND has an elite offense and shoots an insanely high %. Most of their key keys shoot near 40% or better from 3. If they are knocking down 3's this could be a very hard game. Looks like on D they are fairly average. Not bad, but not great either. Size wise we match up fairly well. Looks like all our guards are within an inch or 2 of their guards. They play a 4 guard lineup like WSU does, so that should be fun. They have one true big man who could WSU troubles. Second leading scorer and averaging almost 8 rpg. It would be in WSUs advantage to get him in in foul trouble early! WSU has the deeper bench. Should be a very good game and very well may come down to who is hotter at the 3 pt line. Very Excited!

[The Mad Hatter]

Another ND fan here. I signed up to pass on the message board link to the Pit, but I see someone has already done that. Like any free board you can get your drive by crazies this time of year, but there is a solid core of very knowledgeable basketball fans on that board--key posters are Taxman, Kayo, and Elkabong.

I don't know of any ND fans who are expecting an easy win. I expect a hard fought game. Watching you guys against KU was a bit like looking in the mirror: Smart unselfish team with great athletic quickness and hustle and excellent guard play. Some here are making a whole lot of ND's RPI. Fine. Our cupcakes were even softer than your cupcakes. Granted. But ND has played a lot of very good teams this year, and played them well. We are 7-1 against teams in the sweet 16, only 2 of those games were at home. Similar to Indiana? Give me a break. Haven't faced a defense anywhere near as good as WSU? Really? You guys are better defensively than UVA? Impressive. I wouldn't get your hopes up that ND will fold in the face of your admittedly very solid defense.

I expect it to be a close game, but either team could get hot and go on a run. Thus far in the tournament ND's offense has been a bit off. Will that continue? A lot may depend on the officiating. Will the officials allow (from ND's perspective) WSU to play tough physical defense, bumping, hand checks, etc.? If they swallow their whistles, it could be a tough night for the Irish. If it is a close game, one thing I will say is that ND knows how to win close games.

There will be some great matchups in this game. It should be a great game to watch. Whoever wins, I'll be pulling for them to pull a David against Goliath UK.

It is unfair to say that ND hasn't faced a defense like ours, so let's break down how Notre Dame has fared on the year against top defensive opponents. Going by Kenpom's Adjusted Defense metric, Notre Dame has faced 10 top 50 defenses on the year (14 games with repeat opponents). Half of those teams (and 8 of the games) were against teams #44 to #50. They faced no one in the 30s. Here is the breakdown of the games against top 30 defenses:

	Opp Adjusted D	Opp Adjusted O	W/L	Home/Road/Neutral	Score	ND FG%	ND 3FG%
Georgia Tech 1	#29	#224	W 2OT	Home	83-76 (59-59 in Reg)	53.3%	21.1%
Georgia Tech 2	#29	#224	W	Road	62-59	43.5%	41.2%
Virginia	#2	#25	L	Home	56-62	33.9%	41.7%
Syracuse	#22	#148	L	Home	60-65	34.7%	13.6%
Louisville	#5	#74	W	Road	71-59	53.5%	31.3%
Butler	#8	#82	W OT	Neutral	67-64 (55-55 in Reg)	43.1%	30.0%
Wichita State	#13	#18	?	Neutral	?	?	?

Overall record in those games of 4-2, with two wins in overtime. Record moves to 2-2 for teams in the top 25 in defense (or if you exclude teams with offense outside of the top 200). Outside of the Louisville game, the highest point total for Notre Dame in regulation was 62. Virginia is the only team in the group that has the kind of balance on offense and defense that WSU presents as Louisville ranks as the next best offense at #74 in the country.

Notre Dame will be the best offense that we have seen all year, but comparable defenses have done pretty well at limiting them, although Notre Dame has done well in finding ways to win in close games, so it isn't enough to just slow them down if you don't execute well on the other end.

[OregonShocker]

It is unfair to say that ND hasn't faced a defense like ours, so let's break down how Notre Dame has fared on the year against top defensive opponents. Going by Kenpom's Adjusted Defense metric, Notre Dame has faced 10 top 50 defenses on the year (14 games with repeat opponents). Half of those teams (and 8 of the games) were against teams #44 to #50. They faced no one in the 30s. Here is the breakdown of the games against top 30 defenses:

	Opp Adjusted D	Opp Adjusted O	W/L	Home/Road/Neutral	Score	ND FG%	ND 3FG%
Georgia Tech 1	#29	#224	W 2OT	Home	83-76 (59-59 in Reg)	53.3%	21.1%
Georgia Tech 2	#29	#224	W	Road	62-59	43.5%	41.2%
Virginia	#2	#25	L	Home	56-62	33.9%	41.7%
Syracuse	#22	#148	L	Home	60-65	34.7%	13.6%
Louisville	#5	#74	W	Road	71-59	53.5%	31.3%
Butler	#8	#82	W OT	Neutral	67-64 (55-55 in Reg)	43.1%	30.0%
Wichita State	#13	#18	?	Neutral	?	?	?

Overall record in those games of 4-2, with two wins in overtime. Record moves to 2-2 for teams in the top 25 in defense (or if you exclude teams with offense outside of the top 200). Outside of the Louisville game, the highest point total for Notre Dame in regulation was 62. Virginia is the only team in the group that has the kind of balance on offense and defense that WSU presents as Louisville ranks as the next best offense at #74 in the country.

Notre Dame will be the best offense that we have seen all year, but comparable defenses have done pretty well at limiting them, although Notre Dame has done well in finding ways to win in close games, so it isn't enough to just slow them down if you don't execute well on the other end.

Damn facts are so pesky...