SOS - What it does and doesn't tell us

[SB Shock]

Ok, so you think the S-curve matters in our discussion. I already pointed out that the graph isn't linear, but it is symmetrical. S-curves are symmetrical.

What "problem" does this S-curve cause with my argument?

What again is your argument? It never really been clear?

It may or may not matter, all depends on where u cherry pick your teams from. Plus you all ready made clear you are not using "real" data, but some imaginary ranking that only found in your head - which reall makes this all mute point - right?

[jdshock]

Is beating a top 10 and a bottom 10 team better than, worse than, or equal to beating a pair of dead center middle of the pack mediocre D1 teams?

I just want to say that I think you have finally gotten to what is potentially the best wording of the question you are looking for. The way it was first asked with "which team would you rank higher" is an impossible question without further information. I know you may disagree with that. I'm not trying to start that argument. I'm just trying to say, I think you've reached a good explanation of it.

At that simple of a question, I would be interested in people's justifications for why beating two mediocre teams is better than/harder than/more impressive than beating an elite team and a bad team.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

What again is your argument? It never really been clear?

It may or may not matter, all depends on where u cherry pick your teams from. Plus you all ready made clear you are not using "real" data, but some imaginary ranking that only found in your head - which reall makes this all mute point - right?

Throughout this entire thread I’ve really tried to focus on only 2 major questions:

1 – Team A or Team B. Which do you rank higher based on the limited info I provided?
2 – Does playing a bunch of great teams and a bunch of terrible teams lead to the same SOS as playing a bunch of mediocre teams? I think that as a general rule of thumb, it does, but I wanted to ask the question in case anyone disagrees with that premise.

Question 1 was the original question that started the thread. I wouldn’t call it an “imaginary ranking found only in my head”. I think it is better described as a “consensus ranking”. I didn’t want people to debate the merits of the RPI, so instead of saying it was a “RPI top 10 team” that Team A beat, I just wanted it to be a “consensus top 10 team”. I wanted the discussion that followed to be about the merits of Team A and how we should rank Team A. I wanted the opponents to be fixed, indisputable data points instead of allowing them to become yet another variable in the equation..

Question 2 is a little harder to discuss without looking at actual formulas. At times in this thread, I have used the RPI as an example. I know that KenPom has his own means of calculating SOS. Sagarin is probably different yet again. For this question, I just wanted to know if anyone felt my general rule of thumb was wrong, and if so, to show me an example that disproved my rule of thumb. I believe my rule of thumb works for any of the computer SOS formulas, but I asked question 2 because I wanted to see if everyone else agreed with me.


So… back to RPI and S-curves. You say that the RPI is an S-curve, therefore it is not linear. I agree. You are correct. It is not linear. However, I do not think that it being non-linear disproves my rule of thumb. Since the RPI is a symmetrical S-curve as it moves either direction from the midpoint (Teams #175/#176), I feel that we can still say that beating a great team and a terrible team will result in a nearly identical SOS to what would be obtained playing a couple of teams right at the midpoint (in the 170s). In this case, yes, I’m discussing SOS using the RPI’s version of SOS because that is the easiest formula in my mind. Kenpom’s formulas are much more complex.

So maybe my question to you now is this: Does my general rule of thumb for SOS hold true when looking at the RPI’s version of SOS? I think it does, but you claimed previously that it didn’t when you brought up non-linearity and S-curves. I’d like to know if you still feel my rule of thumb is wrong now that I’ve tried to better explain what I was/wasn’t saying.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I just want to say that I think you have finally gotten to what is potentially the best wording of the question you are looking for. The way it was first asked with "which team would you rank higher" is an impossible question without further information. I know you may disagree with that. I'm not trying to start that argument. I'm just trying to say, I think you've reached a good explanation of it.

At that simple of a question, I would be interested in people's justifications for why beating two mediocre teams is better than/harder than/more impressive than beating an elite team and a bad team.

I appreciate your comments. I'm glad that my efforts to clarify what I was saying were able to be beneficial to you. I'm still holding out hope that I can clarify the "fogginess" that some of our other posters still seem to have.

Message boards are a much tougher means of communication than in person because so much comes down to exact word choice and the slightest mis-interpretation can send 2 people into a series of posts talking "past" each other and not realizing that one little misunderstanding several posts back has caused all the confusion.

[ShockerFever]

LOUD NOISES

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I guess sometimes you cannot force the horse to drink the water. :smile-new:

If you are calling it quits on this discussion, I wish you farewell and thank you for the time and effort you put into your responses.

With that said, I'm still very intrigued by what you are trying to communicate. You make logical statements, but I just can't even begin to see how they are related to what I'm talking about. It is a very strange dynamic, and for whatever reason it keeps me curious.

If you have the energy after a few days off from this conversation, I'd love to hear your response to my last post beyond the sly remark about a leading a horse to water.

[SB Shock]

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So maybe my question to you now is this: Does my general rule of thumb for SOS hold true when looking at the RPI’s version of SOS? I think it does, but you claimed previously that it didn’t when you brought up non-linearity and S-curves. I’d like to know if you still feel my rule of thumb is wrong now that I’ve tried to better explain what I was/wasn’t saying.

"RPI version of SOS"? That just gibberish and with a circular argument. SOS is soley a function of wins and losses. RPI is a weighted function of SOS with corrections/penalties thrown into the mix.

Now you are talking about whether a playing different RPI teams will lead to the same SOS... your curve is a mess...and now you will have to cherry pick team to make your argument.

[SB Shock]

\

So maybe my question to you now is this: Does my general rule of thumb for SOS hold true when looking at the RPI’s version of SOS? I think it does, but you claimed previously that it didn’t when you brought up non-linearity and S-curves. I’d like to know if you still feel my rule of thumb is wrong now that I’ve tried to better explain what I was/wasn’t saying.

"RPI version of SOS"? That just gibberish and with a circular argument. SOS is soley a function of wins and losses. RPI is a weighted function of SOS with corrections/penalties thrown into the mix.

Now you are talking about whether a playing different RPI teams will lead to the same SOS... your curve is a mess...and now you will have to cherry pick team to make your argument.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

"RPI version of SOS"? That just gibberish and with a circular argument. SOS is soley a function of wins and losses. RPI is a weighted function of SOS with corrections/penalties thrown into the mix.

No, different formulas calculate SOS differently.

RPI is calculated 25% W/L + 50% opponents W/L + 25% opps' opps W/L. The RPI calculates SOS as 67% opponents W/L + 33% opps' ops W/L.

However, KenPom for example, does not directly use wins and losses at all in his SOS calculations. From his website:

The way I compute SOS is to average the opponents offensive and defensive ratings and to apply the pythagorean calculation to them to rank the overall schedules.

I simply said "RPI version of SOS" to clarify which formula for SOS I was referencing. RPI has the simplest SOS formula I know of, but it most definitely is not the ONLY way that SOS is calculated.

Note that WSU currently has an SOS of 94 at live-RPI.com and a SOS of 96 at KenPom. Kentucky's SOS is actually 12 at live-RPI and 28 at KenPom, which shows that the different formulas for SOS sometimes generate fairly different results.

I'll address the rest of your post tomorrow when I have more time.

[SB Shock]

No, different formulas calculate SOS differently.

RPI is calculated 25% W/L + 50% opponents W/L + 25% opps' opps W/L. The RPI calculates SOS as 67% opponents W/L + 33% opps' ops W/L.

However, KenPom for example, does not directly use wins and losses at all in his SOS calculations. From his website:



I simply said "RPI version of SOS" to clarify which formula for SOS I was referencing. RPI has the simplest SOS formula I know of, but it most definitely is not the ONLY way that SOS is calculated.

Note that WSU currently has an SOS of 94 at live-RPI.com and a SOS of 96 at KenPom. Kentucky's SOS is actually 12 at live-RPI and 28 at KenPom, which shows that the different formulas for SOS sometimes generate fairly different results.

I'll address the rest of your post tomorrow when I have more time.

LOL. No need I actually figured out what your end game is.

IT IS TO RATIONALIZE WHY KU SHOULD NOT PLAY WSU.

That is all.......

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

LOL. No need I actually figured out what your end game is.

IT IS TO RATIONALIZE WHY KU SHOULD NOT PLAY WSU.

That is all.......

I had no plans to mention KU anywhere in this thread.

So, do you now understand what I meant by "RPI version of SOS"?

[SB Shock]

I had no plans to mention KU anywhere in this thread.

So, do you now understand what I meant by "RPI version of SOS"?

When did anybody think you were talking about anything but a traditional SOS. As soon as you ever venture off to Sagrin, Pomeroy, Massey, etc you have just entered a "black box" that nobody really know how is calculated, and even though might be more accurate is not recognized by the NCAA selection committee.

[wufan]

JH4P,

Have you come to a conclusion? What is the answer to your question?

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

When did anybody think you were talking about anything but a traditional SOS. As soon as you ever venture off to Sagrin, Pomeroy, Massey, etc you have just entered a "black box" that nobody really know how is calculated, and even though might be more accurate is not recognized by the NCAA selection committee.

First my statement was "gibberish", but now you say it was so obvious that you are questioning why I bothered to mention it at all?

You are just being difficult for the sake of being difficult. If you are only here to criticize me for adding 3 words to a post so that there would be less room for misunderstandings, then please just leave and go be a jerk elsewhere.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

JH4P,

Have you come to a conclusion? What is the answer to your question?

I hope to move on a bit with a post around lunchtime today. Glad you are still interested.