SOS - What it does and doesn't tell us

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I'll say it again, but you eoither won't or can't understand it (I prefer to believe the "won't"). It depends somewhat on what was expected. If the #351 team beat the 170s, it was a terrific performance and looks fantastic. If the #1 team beats #10 by a point in 3OT and beats #341 by 1 in OT, then that doesn't impress. Just look at how this board perceivesd WASU at Bradley -- not happy with a 3 point road victory. That tells me that "expectations" do matter.

Now in my scenario, obviously the #1 team is "better" than the #341 team, but that is not what you asked.

Maybe this will help you:

If Kentucky wins at Ohio State by 1, it was expected they would win, and Kentucky fans probably complain that they didn't win by more. Their expectations were not met.

If Bradley wins at Missouri State by 1, it was a surprise, and their fans are probably very pleased by the outcome. Their expectations were exceeded.


But then pretend that I come along and tell you that I'm not interested in discussing expectations at the moment. I just want to know which is a better win. Which win does a better job building a resume? Which win is more highly regarded by a selection committee member trying to analyze your resume?

Your answer would be "well, Bradley fans were the most pleased, but since you asked me to ignore expectations and just focus on the pure value of the wins themselves, in that case, I will say that winning at Ohio State is a better win than winning at Missouri State. Ohio State is better than Missouri State and a win over OSU, in and of itself, is a better win than a win over Missouri State."



See what I'm saying? In my example, I told you what Team A and Team B did in the course of 2 games each. You don't know anything about Team A or Team B's expectations. I left out that information on purpose because I didn't want to allow for any distractions or rabbit trails. When you first mentioned expectations, I even told you directly to ignore expectations because that information is not known in my scenario and is not important to my point. Yet somehow you keep going back to some pretend world where you know information about Team A and Team B that I did not give you to begin with.

Expectations have nothing to do with my question. I just want the absolute, straightforward, no other assumptions made answer to the question.

Is beating a top 10 and a bottom 10 team better than, worse than, or equal to beating a pair of dead center middle of the pack mediocre D1 teams?

[SHOXAAC]

Who's on first?

[Shocker-maniac]

Ahhhh, man, just got home and see that this thread is still gasping for life. Dang, this is kind of like a dark cloud hanging over all of ShockerNet.

[Shocker-maniac]

It's really the only humane thing to do.

[jdmee]

When I read a newspaper, or a magazine, if there is a title of an article that doesn't interest me, I'll just skip it and move on to the next article. It is very simple to see the title "SOS - What it does and doesn't tell us", realize it doesn't interest you, and skip over it.

[Shocker-maniac]

ahhh, heck I was just being tongue in cheek.

[im4wsu]

Maybe this will help you:

If Kentucky wins at Ohio State by 1, it was expected they would win, and Kentucky fans probably complain that they didn't win by more. Their expectations were not met.

If Bradley wins at Missouri State by 1, it was a surprise, and their fans are probably very pleased by the outcome. Their expectations were exceeded.


But then pretend that I come along and tell you that I'm not interested in discussing expectations at the moment. I just want to know which is a better win. Which win does a better job building a resume? Which win is more highly regarded by a selection committee member trying to analyze your resume?

Your answer would be "well, Bradley fans were the most pleased, but since you asked me to ignore expectations and just focus on the pure value of the wins themselves, in that case, I will say that winning at Ohio State is a better win than winning at Missouri State. Ohio State is better than Missouri State and a win over OSU, in and of itself, is a better win than a win over Missouri State."



See what I'm saying? In my example, I told you what Team A and Team B did in the course of 2 games each. You don't know anything about Team A or Team B's expectations. I left out that information on purpose because I didn't want to allow for any distractions or rabbit trails. When you first mentioned expectations, I even told you directly to ignore expectations because that information is not known in my scenario and is not important to my point. Yet somehow you keep going back to some pretend world where you know information about Team A and Team B that I did not give you to begin with.

Expectations have nothing to do with my question. I just want the absolute, straightforward, no other assumptions made answer to the question.

Is beating a top 10 and a bottom 10 team better than, worse than, or equal to beating a pair of dead center middle of the pack mediocre D1 teams?

I guess sometimes you cannot force the horse to drink the water. :smile-new:

[SHOXAAC]

This thread will celebrate its 1 week anniversary (tears welling in my eyes) tomorrow. Have we progressed to the next level yet? I took the day off to stalk this thing to see what I can learn about SOS and RPI and A and B and too much information and not enough information and I'll address that later and don't get ahead of yourself and I want to keep it simple and I saved 15% on my car insurance with Geico.

[im4wsu]

This thread will celebrate its 1 week anniversary (tears welling in my eyes) tomorrow. Have we progressed to the next level yet? I took the day off to stalk this thing to see what I can learn about SOS and RPI and A and B and too much information and not enough information and I'll address that later and don't get ahead of yourself and I want to keep it simple and I saved 15% on my car insurance with Geico.

Spend the night at Holiday Inn Express.

[ShockBand]

Sorry, can't resist this:

[Shocker-maniac]

This thread will celebrate its 1 week anniversary (tears welling in my eyes) tomorrow. Have we progressed to the next level yet? I took the day off to stalk this thing to see what I can learn about SOS and RPI and A and B and too much information and not enough information and I'll address that later and don't get ahead of yourself and I want to keep it simple and I saved 15% on my car insurance with Geico.

That's just so touching . . . I am overwhelmed with emotion.

[SB Shock]

When I say "170s" I don't mean SOS. I don't mean RPI. I don't mean KenPom. I don't mean Sagarin. I don't mean to single out any single ranking system.

I see, you are using some imaginary JH4P ranking system - what is the shape of your curves?

[SHOXAAC]

That's just so touching . . . I am overwhelmed with emotion.

I have that effect on people.

[AZ Shocker]

This entire thread (although decently well intended at first glance) reminds me of a certain song long forgotten....(thank God).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFtLONl4cNc

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Btw, in your previous example you calculated using RPI, u still have the same problem. RPI distribution is a 's-curve' so you will have to change our hypothesis to make it fit whatever your point is - which you tried to do.

The shape of the RPI distribution curve when plotted looks like "S", so you will hear it sometime referred to the "S-Curve"

Ok, so you think the S-curve matters in our discussion. I already pointed out that the graph isn't linear, but it is symmetrical. S-curves are symmetrical.

What "problem" does this S-curve cause with my argument?