SOS - What it does and doesn't tell us

[SB Shock]

So are these teams that are Mid-170's RPI or SOS numbers?

I do not understand this statement about RPI distribution being an "s-curve".

The shape of the RPI distribution curve when plotted looks like "S", so you will hear it sometime referred to the "S-Curve"

[WstateU]

"S-Curve", now you're speaking my language...

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I'm still convinced that this post I made much earlier in the thread would actually create the framework for the conversation that JH4P wants to have (as best as I can guess), but the continued insistence on asking which team you would rank higher or which team would impress you more instead of the much more straightforward question of which team played a harder schedule ruins the whole thing.

No, your "best guess" is wrong.

Asking "which team do you rank higher" or "which teams gets the better resume boost" is a KEY aspect of what I want to say in this thread.

Asking "which team played a harder schedule" is also relevant, but I need both answers, not just one. I chose to start with the ranking question. A few pages into this thread, I started addressing the SOS question. Both are necessary to my ultimate point.

[The Mad Hatter]

No, your "best guess" is wrong.

Asking "which team do you rank higher" or "which teams gets the better resume boost" is a KEY aspect of what I want to say in this thread.

Asking "which team played a harder schedule" is also relevant, but I need both answers, not just one. I chose to start with the ranking question. A few pages into this thread, I started addressing the SOS question. Both are necessary to my ultimate point.

If you have a point, have you tried the novel approach of just making it? What you are doing now is like playing Mad Libs and yelling at everyone because the noun others provided didn't work with the story you wanted to tell.

[SHOXAAC]

If you have a point, have you tried the novel approach of just making it? What you are doing now is like playing Mad Libs and yelling at everyone because the noun others provided didn't work with the story you wanted to tell.

Hell will freeze over before he makes his point.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

So are these teams that are Mid-170's RPI or SOS numbers?

When I say "170s" I don't mean SOS. I don't mean RPI. I don't mean KenPom. I don't mean Sagarin. I don't mean to single out any single ranking system. I simply mean they are somewhere between the 170th and 179th best team in the country. Not according to a single poll. Just stated as a fact. In referencing these teams, I repeatedly called these teams mediocre, middle of the pack, etc. Nothing needs to be known except that they are extremely average teams. Think of it as if RPI, KenPom, you, me, Fever, Jay Bilas, Doug Gottlieb, and president Obama all personally felt like these teams should be ranked in the 170s. The point is just to assume what is given. THEY ARE IN THE 170s. PERIOD. THEY ARE DEAD AVERAGE. NOTHING ELSE NEEDS TO BE KNOWN ABOUT THEM.

The same could be said of the "top 10 team". It isn't top 10 in a poll or according to a computer. It is just top 10 unanimously. The whole point is to remove the ranking systems that people get all up in arms about and to leave no room for debate. If it is a unanimous top 10, we can avoid the people chiming in saying "well, I think that team is overrated". Let's use a generic team with no preconceived notions so that arguments about top 10 or not top 10 don't have to be a part of the conversation.

This should have been SOOOOO SIMPLE. I keep saying it over and over. Don't try to add complexity. I started things simple for this very reason. Complexity causes rabbit trails and completely sidetracks the discussion. I'm trying my best to patiently help everyone get back to the very simple premise.

Here are just a few of the many posts I've already made related to this concept.

I introduced the generic concept of rankings. There is no reason to do a detailed analysis on the pros and cons of the RPI as I was being very generic for a reason. I wanted to avoid arguments over the rating system itself.

In my hypothetical, Team A is top 10. They deserve to be top 10. Humans rank them top 10. Computers rank them top 10. There is no questioning their top 10 status. The benefit of doing this as a hypothetical is that we can get away from the disagreements we have about specific teams in the real world and can use an pretend example where Team A beat a team that we all unanimously agree is a top 10 team. This simplifies things greatly and allows the discussion to start from a point of agreement.

Team A beat a great team and a terrible team.
Team B beat two mediocre teams.
We know nothing about the SOS of these "great", "terrible", and "mediocre" teams.

Team A is 2-0. They beat one of the 10 best teams in the county and one of the 10 worst teams in the country.
Team B is 2-0. They beat two of the most mediocre teams in the country. There are 351 teams in D1, so we are talking about a couple teams in the 170s.

Nothing else is known. We are assuming that all the facts presented are indisputable. Team A beating one of the 10 best teams in the country is to be treated as a fact and is not up for debate.

Does this help give you that "ah-ha" moment to realize what I'm trying to say?

[shockmonster]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwmwQkwWGvg

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Would this help in the current top 25 there are two teams, both with the same number of losses and the average RPI of the teams they lost to are about the same.

Team A

Average RPI of their Top 5 wins 22
Average RPI of their Bottom 5 wins 233

Team B
Average RPI of their top 5 wins 43
Average RPI of their bottom 5 wins 214.

Which team would you rank higher?

Or these Teams both with the same number of losses and Average RPI of all the wins within 15 of each other.

Team C

Top 5 61
Bot 5 245

Team D

Top 5 39
Bot 5 283

Do either of these reduce the outliers enough for everyone and is there enough to talk about the SOS?

I appreciate your effort, but your post brings in too much detail. We are struggling with simplicity, so I don't think more details will be helpful.

Sorry, but I don't want to use your scenario.

[SHOXAAC]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwmwQkwWGvg

Funny shat right there.

[SHOXAAC]

If a thread is deserving of being hijacked, this one is due.

[SHOCKvalue]

Kill it with fire!

^This thread.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I would be more impressed with a team that was not expected to beat two of the most mediocre teams in the country, but did than I would be with a team that was expected to beat one of the 10 best teams in the county and one of the 10 worst teams in the country and did.

That is totally, completely, 100% irrelevant to what I've been talking about. The element of expecting Team A or Team B to win/lose is not a part of my point. Not even close. All I care about is comparing which set of wins (10/341 vs 175/176) is a better resume enhancer.

There is simply not sufficient information to determine, other than a totally unsubstantiated wild guess rather than a "decision," whether Team A or Team B is "better" or "ranked higher" or whatever criteria you finally land on for your "test."

But assuming the SOS is the same, what does it tell us or not tell us? It tells us nothing and doesn't tell us anything. There, I played you game.

So let me rephrase. You think that beating teams 10 & 341 looks equally as good on a resume as beating teams 175 & 176? These wins are the same and neither pair looks better than the other pair? Yes or no?

[Kung Wu]

I don't have time to read any of this thread, but based on the title I'd like to offer my 2¢.

SOS _does_ tell us that someone is in distress.

SOS _does NOT_ tell us if that person is worth saving.

[im4wsu]

That is totally, completely, 100% irrelevant to what I've been talking about. The element of expecting Team A or Team B to win/lose is not a part of my point. Not even close. All I care about is comparing which set of wins (10/341 vs 175/176) is a better resume enhancer.



So let me rephrase. You think that beating teams 10 & 341 looks equally as good on a resume as beating teams 175 & 176? These wins are the same and neither pair looks better than the other pair? Yes or no?

I'll say it again, but you eoither won't or can't understand it (I prefer to believe the "won't"). It depends somewhat on what was expected. If the #351 team beat the 170s, it was a terrific performance and looks fantastic. If the #1 team beats #10 by a point in 3OT and beats #341 by 1 in OT, then that doesn't impress. Just look at how this board perceivesd WASU at Bradley -- not happy with a 3 point road victory. That tells me that "expectations" do matter.

Now in my scenario, obviously the #1 team is "better" than the #341 team, but that is not what you asked.

[Cdizzle]

By how much did they win? After all, this is a beauty contest.