Integrating new players into system

[im4wsu]

One point about Baker not being the PG FVV is.... I agree. BUT, Baker also doesn't get to play PG with Baker at SG. Makes things a little different.

Dizzle's comment got me to wondering about the effect on efficiency of having one, two or more newbies in the lineup at the same time. Through 17 games, here are the +/- numbers

# Newbies	Groups	Seconds	Opp Pts	WSU Pts	Net	Minutes	+/- per 40
0	1	6764	142	207	65	113	23.1
1	23	12778	294	375	81	213	15.2
2	71	11875	311	370	59	198	11.9
3	50	6360	149	184	35	106	13.2
4	20	1345	32	32	0	22	0.0
5	19	2278	66	57	-9	38	-9.5
All Groups	184	41400	994	1225	231	690	13.4

I then looked at the 103 groupings that included Fred.

# Newbies	Groups	Seconds	Opp Pts	WSU Pts	Net	Minutes	+/- per 40
0	1	6764	142	207	65	113	23.1
1	19	11975	274	348	74	200	14.8
2	47	7999	204	246	42	133	12.6
3	31	97	2	3	1	2	24.7
4	5	366	11	10	-1	6	-6.6
All Groups	103	27201	633	814	181	453	16.0

Then, getting right down to Dizzle's comment concerning the advantage Fred has of playing with Baker and vice versa. I could only come up with the following categories. Obviously, when one or the other or both are not playing, there must be one or more newbies on the floor.

	Groups	Seconds	Opp Pts	WSU Pts	Net	Minutes	+/- per 40
Fred only	47	4555	132	132	0	76	0.0
Ron only	51	7162	180	213	33	119	11.1
Both	56	26695	592	809	217	445	19.5
Neither	30	2988	90	71	-19	50	-15.3
All Groups	184	41400	994	1225	231	690	13.4

I was stunned by the effect of Fred not having Baker on the floor as compared to Baker not having Fred on the floor.

[ShockerPhi]

Wow. This is very well thought out and quite clearly shown and explained. Good work. This is very interesting indeed.

[choida]

I'm pretty sure this is the similar data used by coach Marshall... Its similar to what the Houston rockets are analyzing to make basketball more efficient.. Forgot what the term is called

[wu_shizzle]

I've tried looking for it (Bleacher Report?), but a recent write up on Fred quoted him saying something like "When WSU was recruiting me, all they talked about was this white boy from Western Kansas".

So even then the staff knew, and Fred knew, how good Ron (and Cle) would make him look.

[WuDrWu]

Doesn't exactly give you the warm fuzzies for the future

[WSUwatcher]

This is interesting, well done stuff, im4. It's indeed a striking testament to Baker's value on the floor for the Shocks. (Fear not, Doc -- at some point in the past similar analyses might have shown the same thing for other former Shocker greats, but the program has yet to shut down after anyone finished his time, even though there are those who might claim that it should have done so for most of the 90's.)

Did you try to identify the impact of individual newbies -- and if so, who (if anyone) stood out -- or did you treat them all as equivalent? Also, is there any plus-minus verification for the widespread belief (shared by me, by the way) that the Shocks tend to be a better team with Evan Wessel on the floor? Or are such questions way beyond the scope of what you have time to do?

[ShockTalk]

Actually, it may not look that bad. We probably may have at least one of FVV and Ron back, if not both, for next year. Our frosh, and next years class, will have another year of experience before both are gone.

When you look at the "3 newbies vs 1 newbie", there is very little difference. Even with only a half of a year experience for most of our non-starters, their +13.2 is pretty good. Granted, most of those minutes with 3 newbies is against lesser competition, but it would be interesting to see how this all looks by the end of conference play and again at the end of the year.

[wusphlash]

Six freshmen with Fred and Ron this year means six sophomores with Fred and Ron next year. That's two years for the FVVRB effect to rub off on them. I believe the same mathematics run next year will show positive improvement.

[im4wsu]

This is interesting, well done stuff, im4. It's indeed a striking testament to Baker's value on the floor for the Shocks. (Fear not, Doc -- at some point in the past similar analyses might have shown the same thing for other former Shocker greats, but the program has yet to shut down after anyone finished his time, even though there are those who might claim that it should have done so for most of the 90's.)

Did you try to identify the impact of individual newbies -- and if so, who (if anyone) stood out -- or did you treat them all as equivalent? Also, is there any plus-minus verification for the widespread belief (shared by me, by the way) that the Shocks tend to be a better team with Evan Wessel on the floor? Or are such questions way beyond the scope of what you have time to do?

I can look at any grouping of five players, but to focus on one individual is very time consuming across the 184 groupings. Fred, for example, is in 103 groupings. Of course, the newbies are not in quite as many groupings,

Evan, through 17 games, is the highest net + per 40 minutes at 18.1, but is fifth in the largest gross margin with +120 compared to Baker's +250 and 17.7 per 40.

[ShockerPrez]

Doesn't exactly give you the warm fuzzies for the future

I'm holding out hope that in the tourney this year, our next star will emerge.

Fred and Ron didn't have to compete with Fred and Ron, but it was clear they were special.

[jcdshocker]

I'm holding out hope that in the tourney this year, our next star will emerge.

Fred and Ron didn't have to compete with Fred and Ron, but it was clear they were special.

I am not as concerned about the backcourt with Connor and Zach playing key roles over the next 2.5 / 3 years but who ultimately will be stepping up in the post? We need a big mean junk yard dog to emerge from a couple of our young post players. There is talent there if they will find it within themselves to play angry.

[forevershockerfan]

A huge key to winning at this level is playing the best players the correct amount of minutes. Remember years ago when the N. Iowa player hit the lucky winning shot at the buzzer when Coach T was our coach? The next day as I studied the box score and noticed quite a contrast in minutes played with their best players versus ours. I can't remember the exact details but we had only 1 player at 30 minutes or more and they had all 5 of their best players with 30 minutes or more minutes played. With that said, I had to wonder if NIU would have even had the chance for their heroics had we played our best players more minutes also.

One of the many reasons 3G wins more of his fair share of games is him playing our best players the proper amount of minutes in each game depending on fouls, minor injuries, and match ups. Even in the 2 games we lost this Season, we were in a situation that we could have won both games if we would have made shots down the stretch.

[Ricardo del Rio]

I'm holding out hope that in the tourney this year, our next star will emerge.

Fred and Ron didn't have to compete with Fred and Ron, but it was clear they were special.

For a star to emerge, the candidate must shoot the ball and make some shots.

Other than Shaq, there has not been a lot of that going on lately.

[im4wsu]

Comparing the performance of the starters, newcomers and walk-ons in yesterday's game compared to the total season to date:

	Game at Evansville			All games
	Starters	Newbies	Walk-ons	Starters	Newbies	Walk-ons
FG%	43.2%	50.0%	0.0%	45.4%	45.0%	33.3%
3FG%	40.0%		0.0%	36.5%	37.1%	33.3%
FT%	84.2%	60.0%	0.0%	69.8%	63.2%	66.7%
REB/40	6.8	8.3	0.0	6.2	6.8	3.3
PF/40	2.5	3.8	24.0	2.5	5.1	5.7
TP/40	14.6	6.8	0.0	15.7	11.2	9.0
A/40	2.3	0.8	0.0	3.5	1.4	3.3
TO/40	1.1	6.8	8.0	1.6	2.3	2.4
BLK/40	1.1	3.0	0.0	0.6	1.1	0.0
S/40	1.7	0.8	0.0	1.7	0.7	0.8
MIN	142	53	5	2393	1208	49