Utah center: KU more 'physical' than Shockers -- but overall, race too close to call

[Blackmag]

I think its funny the Kansas Beakers press is trying to claim victory over us through the Utah game. We led 75% of that game on there court and lost in overtime. They keep talking about how young the Beakers are, every article, every interview, gets a little old. We play 4 freshmen quite a bit a they hardly ever mention it....

[1979Shocker]

Possibly true. As a stat nerd (it's the baseball in me), I think it would be interesting to keep/know the number of "missed" throws not taken due to missing the first of a 1 and 1. Potentially, miss the first, you lose; make the first, miss the second, you tie; make both, you win. How many potential points are lost due to first misses in a game?

I look at the WSU-Utah play-by-play and it looks like Utah missed the front end of two one-and-ones, and WSU missed two, both by FVV.

http://www.nmnathletics.com/fls/7500/stats/mbasketball/2014/wsu15-05.htm#GAME.PLY

[7hottamales]

Nm

[7hottamales]

Possibly true. As a stat nerd (it's the baseball in me), I think it would be interesting to keep/know the number of "missed" throws not taken due to missing the first of a 1 and 1. Potentially, miss the first, you lose; make the first, miss the second, you tie; make both, you win. How many potential points are lost due to first misses in a game?

I've always thought that a missed front end should count as 0-2.

[Shockeriffic]

Possibly true. As a stat nerd (it's the baseball in me), I think it would be interesting to keep/know the number of "missed" throws not taken due to missing the first of a 1 and 1. Potentially, miss the first, you lose; make the first, miss the second, you tie; make both, you win. How many potential points are lost due to first misses in a game?

I haven't heard of anyone that has done that but I'm giving a quick look to try to figure it out. Last year the D1 average for fouls per game was 19 and the D1 average for FT% has been around 69% for the last 5 years. Nineteen fouls means eight 1 and 1 chances per game and going with 69% of them made gives us around two and a half 1 and 1 chances missed per game. This figure is going to be high because some of the 7th and 8th fouls are going to be offensive fouls or shooting fouls. Also, last year had the new rules emphasis that led to more fouls. Somewhere around 2 per game is probably right.

[WSUwatcher]

The article talks about KU being able to the deal where the Shox fell short. KU hit 21-23 FTs. FTs were a major factor in both of those games.. Much more so than physicality.

Very true, joco. KU IS bigger, obviously. But it was definitely FT scoring differential (ironically, WSU actually outshot Utah at the line in percentage terms, whereas The Flagship both got more chances -- what a surprise -- and made more of them) that made a bigger difference than size did. Of course, as noted before, playing essentially at home and at midwestern elevation vs. in a true, well-attended road game well over 4000 feet up makes a difference, too.

If a handicapper looked at only those two games and nothing else he'd probably make WSU a slight favorite over KU playing at a neutral site. But it would likely be close enough that in the end execution would decide the outcome, and foul shooting is an important part of execution (as Calipari's Memphis team learned against the Chickenhawks once upon a time.

[pinstripers]

What was the Vegas line on the KU-Utah game?