Potential Implosion of Big 12 and Its Impact on Shocker Basketball

[MoValley John]

Which is why they'll eventually go to 8 teams in the playoff.

This.


Let me say it again.


This.


Regardless of how far out the playoff is contracted, amending it to include eight teams is simple and will happen.

[Dave Stalwart]

If there was ever a conference that would implode, it's the American. I keep getting the impression that the big schools in it are all wanting out almost immediately and it has no history. It's basically conference USA with the occasional big name thrown in.

If the Big 12 expands, I think Memphis, Cincinnati, Notre Dame and UCONN (because once they hear the other two are leaving-if it happens-they will want out of the AAC, too) make sense. It would give you a decent North and South that divides somewhere around KU or Iowa St.

That's 14. Maybe BYU. All if this stuff just stands out as something pretty simple. As soon as schools started leaving the American, the writing was on the wall in my opinion. It looked like it was created when the big east changed to handle that situation but I doubt anyone (other than the lucky small schools like Tulsa) really has any allegiance to it.

[Shocker1976]

This implosion discussion is all silly talk. I know people are hoping for something like implosion of the Big 12 helping the Shockers, but it just isn't happening. The SEC isn't poaching Oklahoma, they need another football power like the Valley needs another Evansville. Texas has no friends that trust them in any conference, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and Texas Tech have no interest from any other conference, so the Big 12 is here to stay. They have TV money, they have a place at the adult table, so quit dreaming. The Big 12 is one big dysfunctional family that is here to stay.

IMO you need to expand your understanding of the context of college sports and the business that it has become (mainly due to the visionary leaders of the SEC). A few relevant points of sports history:

1. The SEC was a good but not dominant Conference for 50 years; in 1991 they enticed Arkansas (SWC) and South Carolina (ACC) to join them - a 12 team conference.

2. Within a decade the SEC became one of the Power Conferences, leading the Big 10, ACC and Pac 10 to take note of the SEC's heightened position in college sports.

3. The Big 8 at this time a major power conference in both basketball and football failed to recognize the expansion plans of the SEC, PAC 10 and Big 10.

4. In 2011 the Big 8 lost Colorado (PAC 10), Nebraska (Big 10) and Missouri (SEC); merged with the SWC, another short sighted conference that lost TA&M (SEC)

5. In 2014 the Power 5 Conferences coerced major concessions from the NCAA that grant it significant advantages over other NCAA schools

Given this background why are you so confident that "the Big 12 is here to stay" with TV money and a seat at the adult table"? Do you think the SEC is content with its current membership and would not "pluck plum teams" from the dosing Big 12? Do you think the SEC, ACC, Big Ten and Pac 12 are benevolent organizations that want to share money and power with other NCAA schools? By expanding to 16 member conferences, the SEC, ACC, Big Ten and Pac 12 strengthen their control over college sports and the revenue it generates.

IMO within the next five years the Power 5 will become the Power 4 (P4) and the P4 will control college football and have extraordinary influence over college basketball. I just hope that the Shockers can remain relevant in basketball by forming strong alliances with those college basketball teams that are not members of the P4.

[wu_shizzle]

If the Big 12 expands, I think Memphis, Cincinnati, Notre Dame and UCONN

That's one heck of a basketball conference.

I still think that the Big XII would be smart to go after UCF or USF.

[wu_shizzle]

4. In 2011 the Big 8 lost Colorado (PAC 10), Nebraska (Big 10) and Missouri (SEC); merged with the SWC, another short sighted conference that lost TA&M (SEC)

[Jatrain]

The Big 12 isn't expanding. Right now the advantage that the Big12 has over the other P5 conferences is that it has fewer mouths to feed when it comes to revenue distribution so even though total revenues are less, the individual schools receive distributions equal to or greater than those in the other P5 conference (when the Big 12's individually sold Tier3 rights are factored in). The schools that discussed as realistically being available (Cincy, Memphis, etc) don't bring enough revenue to the table to offset the increased split and don't add any additional stabilitizing factors.

In regards to the football playoff, the Big 12 played a game of chance with it this year - they tried hedge the Conference Champion thing in an attempt to position both Baylor and TCU to get it if there were upsets in the other CCGs. But it didn't happen and it bit them in the butt. But outside of Baylor's and TCU's (lesser) reaction, the other schools, while paying lip service in the name of conference unity, aren't really that outraged - definitely not enough to cause a knee jerk reaction of expanding. Remember, as a whole the coaches in the league (esp OU and UT) have been against a CCG anyway as historically in the Big 12 the CCG has hurt more teams (KSU) than it has helped. What will happen is that in Feb/March the Big12 will join the ACC in pushing for deregulation of the CCGs (this has already been discussed during the P5 internal negotiations on autotomy). The Big 12 wants the option of a CCG with only 10 members, the ACC wants to move beyond a divisional set-up as to help with there SOS. The SEC is open to it as they are having some internal issues over scheduling and would like more flexibility than straight divisions allow. Don't know where the BIG and PAC stand.

More likely is the break-up of the conference, but that cannot happen due to the GOR (in conjunction with the updated bylaws agreed upon when WVU entered the conference), they are just too penal. And if it does happen once the GOR expires it will be in the context of another round of conference realignment driven by ESPN. Most of the schools would be swallowed up. Texas can choose their conference (most likely BIG or PAC), OU would look to the PAC (and try to bring OSU) if the BIG isn't interested (not AAU). Neither of those aren't interested in the SEC, who would be more likely to try to poach from the ACC anyway. KU pushes hard for the BIG (a possibility depending on how much more Eastern expansion the BIG wants, after UM and RU there has been some rumblings from the Western based schools), maybe PAC if academics push back on Tech/OSU inclusion with UT/OU. There have been rumblings about KU/OU working together on BIG package. Baylor, KSU,ISU have less options but still can combine in some form with ACC schools if they lose some as well.

[Kung Wu]

I still say ... WSU buy Pitt State, making it Wichita State University - Pittsburgh ... and *boom* we're in the Big 12.

Best part? Check out the acronym: WSUP, homies?

[Shocker1976]

I still say ... WSU buy Pitt State, making it Wichita State University - Pittsburgh ... and *boom* we're in the Big 12.

Best part? Check out the acronym: WSUP, homies?

Great idea and the Shockers would be guaranteed to not finish last in the conference as long as the Beakers put a team on the field.

[_kai_]

Shocker Gorillas... sign me up.

[Shocker1976]

The Big 12 isn't expanding. Right now the advantage that the Big12 has over the other P5 conferences is that it has fewer mouths to feed when it comes to revenue distribution so even though total revenues are less, the individual schools receive distributions equal to or greater than those in the other P5 conference (when the Big 12's individually sold Tier3 rights are factored in). The schools that discussed as realistically being available (Cincy, Memphis, etc) don't bring enough revenue to the table to offset the increased split and don't add any additional stabilitizing factors.

More likely is the break-up of the conference, but that cannot happen due to the GOR (in conjunction with the updated bylaws agreed upon when WVU entered the conference), they are just too penal. And if it does happen once the GOR expires it will be in the context of another round of conference realignment driven by ESPN. Most of the schools would be swallowed up. Texas can choose their conference (most likely BIG or PAC), OU would look to the PAC (and try to bring OSU) if the BIG isn't interested (not AAU). Neither of those aren't interested in the SEC, who would be more likely to try to poach from the ACC anyway. KU pushes hard for the BIG (a possibility depending on how much more Eastern expansion the BIG wants, after UM and RU there has been some rumblings from the Western based schools), maybe PAC if academics push back on Tech/OSU inclusion with UT/OU. There have been rumblings about KU/OU working together on BIG package. Baylor, KSU,ISU have less options but still can combine in some form with ACC schools if they lose some as well.

Thanks for posting such a comprehensive and insightful review. Whether one uses the term "break-up" or "implosion" IMO the Big 12 is going away and within the next five years. Contracts are rewritten everyday by interested parties; consequently the Big 12 GOR is not a fail safe mechanism to ensure the Big 12's existence. Rather it is an issue that will be negotiated when the P4 Conferences and ESPN come calling to discuss conference realignment.

Forget sports this issue is all about money and power, the fallout for the Shockers if played correctly could be a major improvement in OOC scheduling and conference membership. I pray that ESPN will take a broader view of realignment and pursue a similar realignment strategy for basketball that provides the Shockers an exit from the MVC and membership in a basketball focused conference. After all the cost of a losing football program without major funding support from Conference TV contracts could lead some quality basketball schools to drop football.

[ShockerMas]

IMO you need to expand your understanding of the context of college sports and the business that it has become (mainly due to the visionary leaders of the SEC). A few relevant points of sports history:

4. In 2011 the Big 8 lost Colorado (PAC 10), Nebraska (Big 10) and Missouri (SEC); merged with the SWC, another short sighted conference that lost TA&M (SEC)

Wait, what??? You do know the Big 8-SWC Merger was announced in 1994 and they formed the Big 12 in the summer of 1996, right?

[AZ Shocker]

With the way the Big-12 was treated this football season (getting totally shafted) and in previous years towards K-State football...I believe the writing is and has been on the wall. The BIG-12 can not survive having a Baylor, TCU or K-State winning the conference in football. When Texas and Oklahoma don't win the conference...the conference is screwed pertaining to the National Playoff thing. The networks are NOT gonna invite anybody from the Big-12 to the playoffs unless it's either Texas or Oklahoma. Soooooooo....either the Big-12 allows (cheats) Oklahoma or Texas to win the conference every year...or Oklahoma and Texas find a new home thus imploding the Big-12. IMHO pretty much inevitable. Sad....as it was once a really great conferfence.

[Shocker1976]

Wait, what??? You do know the Big 8-SWC Merger was announced in 1994 and they formed the Big 12 in the summer of 1996, right?

I apologize for confusing you by assuming that readers of my post would grasp the point I was making about the Big 8's response to the SEC's initial expansion move in 1991. The visionary leaders of the Big 8 chose to merge with the non-visionary Southwest Conference, the conference that had just lost their Second Most Valuable asset (Arkansas) to the SEC. This combined Conference (Big 12) then continued to be non-visionary losing three of its most valuable assets (Nebraska, Colorado and Missouri) to the B1G, PAC 12 and SEC.

Context can be a b**** can it not ShockerMas?

[Jatrain]

Thanks for posting such a comprehensive and insightful review. Whether one uses the term "break-up" or "implosion" IMO the Big 12 is going away and within the next five years. Contracts are rewritten everyday by interested parties; consequently the Big 12 GOR is not a fail safe mechanism to ensure the Big 12's existence. Rather it is an issue that will be negotiated when the P4 Conferences and ESPN come calling to discuss conference realignment.

Forget sports this issue is all about money and power, the fallout for the Shockers if played correctly could be a major improvement in OOC scheduling and conference membership. I pray that ESPN will take a broader view of realignment and pursue a similar realignment strategy for basketball that provides the Shockers an exit from the MVC and membership in a basketball focused conference. After all the cost of a losing football program without major funding support from Conference TV contracts could lead some quality basketball schools to drop football.

Contracts can be re-written but not unilaterally - there has to be some willingness on the part of both sides to rewrite the thing. So it depends on what type of implosion you are thinking. Implosion with 3 or 4 of the 10 schools finding landing spots in the P4 will not happen until the GOR expires. It is just too punative and the other conferences (ACC, PAC) that have one as well aren't super interested in challenging the Big12s in court as it was a model for their's . So it takes 8 members to dissolve the conference. You find a P4 landing spot for eight of the members that they feel each feel is better for them than the current Big 12 then yes it could happen within 5 years. But (1) finding a nice, happy spot for those 8 members isn't going to be easy and (2) the left out schools (ie Baylor) are going to be very litigious and political. So yes it could happen but I'd guess its much more likely to wait until the GOR expires in 2025.

[MoValley John]

Wow. A lot of stuff to consider. So I guess the Big 12 is breaking up. That must be because Texas is leaving. And since Texas is leaving, they must be going somewhere. Please, someone, tell me where Texas is going? Please tell me which of the other four conferences they will join? Which conference is going to allow Texas to keep the Longhorn Network? As of now, all four of the other conferences have said the Longhorn Network is a deal breaker. The Longhorn Network screws up everything.

Since its not Texas, it must be Oklahoma. Oklahoma to the SEC? That is exactly what the SEC needs, another program outside of its footprint. Instead of robbing the American or the ACC, both which have big name schools inside the SEC footprint, the SEC is going to jump to Norman for their next addition. Doubtful. And that is assuming that Oklahoma wants to go. Also doubtful.

The rest of the Big 12 isn't doing anything, they are just happy to still have a conference. They have absolutely nowhere to go. The Big 12 isn't going anywhere. Now at the end of the Longhorn Network contract, should ESPN decide not to throw good money after bad, all bets are off as to what happens to Texas.