Not looking good for Loyola

[Kung Wu]

I admit that it seems a bit funny we are having such a detailed analysis of Chicago State, but since everyone seems to be so interested in breaking down my original statement I'll join in the fun.

Oh come on ... if they didn't get hot against Worcester Polytechnic Institute when the auditorium air conditioning system went out, and also pull out the 3OT victory against Rensselaer due to half the Engineers' team getting lost when one of their mothers driving her minivan took the wrong exit ... well you know Chicago State would still be squatting on their 300 RPI perch.

Luck I tell ya.

[Shoxfan11]

We all laugh at Chicago State now, but when they sign this guy, we're all in big trouble... http://247sports.com/Player/Caleb-Swanigan-29997

Also, they'll rip away that coveted Chicago market that Loyola dominates right now (according to Doug Elgin).

[The Mad Hatter]

I admit that it seems a bit funny we are having such a detailed analysis of Chicago State, but since everyone seems to be so interested in breaking down my original statement I'll join in the fun.

Well, I wasn't going to, but you basically dared someone to with the suggestion that no one would see it. So I figured why not? :friendly_wink:

Wrong and wrong. Last year was only Chicago State's 6th best season out of their last 10. Yes, an RPI of 260 was an improvement over the previous year, but they had been as high as 208 in '03-'04 and 213 in '06-'07 with multiple other top 250s in the last decade. Your statement about it being an "abnormally good year" is simply untrue. It was simply average compared to the rest of their last decade. Chicago State had a 3 year run of being 300+, but has generally been top 300 more often than not over the last decade. Yes, they pretty much always stink, but just how badly they stink is relevant to to the validity of those trying to pick apart my original statement.

The bottom half of the MVC, on the other hand, was indeed far and away the worst it had been in the last decade. You actually have to go back 15-20 years to find a comparably bad group of cellar dwellers. I realize this was an abnormally bad year and hope things get better this year. However, the trend of the MVC has been downward the last 10 years, and I don't see things getting much better anytime soon. Hate Creighton all you want, but you have to admit that trading them for Loyola was a really raw deal.

1. Wait a minute, since when are we talking about performance over the last decade? Wasn't your whole premise that the MVC is not the powerhouse it was 6-10 years ago? If we are going to talk about Chicago State's average performance over the past decade, why not talk about the average performance of Valley teams over the past decade? If the point of the post is performance over the last several years contrasted with performance over the rest of the past decade, the only apples to apples comparison is what each group has done over the last several years. If you are saying that the Valley has gotten worse over the decade you can't say that it doesn't matter that Chicago State has gotten worse over the decade when making the comparison.

2. Even setting that aside, as you note, over the past 10 years Chicago State has averaged an RPI of 275. So how does that compare to recent performances? Well, other than Loyola, there is still no Valley team that has been 275 in the in any single season, much less average that low over a multi-year stretch. Plus, the two teams to outside of Loyola to come at all close (SIU and Bradley) have two things mitigating:

a. they both were facing either a rash of injuries or multiple people dismissed from the team with a coaching change, so this represents not what they are before one big injury, but after losing multiple players

b. even at their worst stretch each school has had a season with a better rpi in the last 3 years than Chicago State has had in the last decade (188 and 179 in '12-'13 vs 208 in '03-'04)

-I think there are a handful of MVC teams right now that are currently better than Chicago State, but only a single injury away from being in that general category.

This is a bit of a departure from your original statement. Saying that there are a handful of MVC teams comparable to Chicago State with injury problems is different from saying the league is "full of a bunch of teams" from your original post. Clearly, Loyola is comparable to Chicago State. We are all on board with that. Outside of that, however, the only possible cases for this statement are SIU and Bradley.

The only other school to have a single season outside of the top 200 is Evansville and they have actually been better of late than they were earlier in the decade and this past year they were incredibly young so they were working with the equivalent of injuries from the toll of graduating most of their starters.

Here is how far each of the teams in the conference (other than Loyola) would have to fall from their worst rpi year of the past 3 to match Chicago State's average: Bradley - 7 slots; SIU - 19 slots; Evansville - 65 slots; Mo. St. - 77 slots; Drake - 96 slots; In. St. - 138 slots; Il. St. - 142 slots; UNI - 163 slots.

- There is 1 team that resembles Chicago State in the Valley - namely Loyola.
- There are 2 more teams that have been historically bad yet have still outperformed Chicago State - SIU and Bradley.
- The remaining 70% of Valley teams do not resemble Chicago State in any way, shape, or form.
- The claim that injuries would change those dynamics ignores the fact that the SIU and Bradley were already that bad because they were playing with depleted rosters, that Missouri State has lost stars to injuries multiple times recently and didn't drop out of the top 200, that Drake lost Rice to transfer and likewise stayed in the top 200, that Evansville lost most of their team to graduation and their worst year was still as good as CSU's best year of the past decade, and that UNI, In. St., and Il. St. have all never been outside of the top 150 the last three years, so it is hard to see any injury that would drop them that far.

All that being said, the idea that only Loyola is truly comparable to Chicago State is hardly the most ringing endorsement of a conference.

Also, I clearly have too much time on my hands.

[Kung Wu]

We will know LoyChi is serious about basketball when they let Porter go. I'm sure he's a good guy but I'm afraid he's not THE guy that LoyChi needs to get their program kickstarted with new energy. They are committed to spending money to resurrect their program supposedly -- well ... let's see it. Upgrade your coach.

[The Mad Hatter]

The real problem for Loyola is not that they risk being in Chicago State's rpi territory after this injury, but the fact that they were already in that territory before this injury.

I'm with @Kung Wu: on this one in that I'm worried that Moser is not the coach to lead them to basketball relevance, but I'm even more worried that they will struggle to attract anyone much better. I guess the coming years will tell us how serious Loyola really is about spending money and how much of a fan base they can actually build, because so far it is just words.

[WSUwatcher]

I clearly have too much time on my hands.

Yes, but you also have things sufficiently in perspective to make the foregoing very astute observation, something that can't be said of everyone around here.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

1. Wait a minute, since when are we talking about performance over the last decade? Wasn't your whole premise that the MVC is not the powerhouse it was 6-10 years ago? If we are going to talk about Chicago State's average performance over the past decade, why not talk about the average performance of Valley teams over the past decade? If the point of the post is performance over the last several years contrasted with performance over the rest of the past decade, the only apples to apples comparison is what each group has done over the last several years. If you are saying that the Valley has gotten worse over the decade you can't say that it doesn't matter that Chicago State has gotten worse over the decade when making the comparison.

I was comparing where the MVC is NOW with Chicago State's general reputation of being bad. Image is developed over time. Chicago State isn't known for last season. They are used as a punchline for jokes because of their last decade. I fully admit that the MVC has been generally pretty strong over the last decade. It is the trajectory over that time period and the low that I feel the league is CURRENTLY in that gets me depressed.

This isn't a hill I feel like dying on. If my comparison to Chicago State was a bit of a stretch, fine. My only intent was to point out how disappointed I am with the MVC compared to where they were not too long ago. The bottom of the MVC is really hurting the Shox and it makes me sad.

[Cdizzle]

We will know LoyChi is serious about basketball when they let Porter go. I'm sure he's a good guy but I'm afraid he's not THE guy that LoyChi needs to get their program kickstarted with new energy. They are committed to spending money to resurrect their program supposedly -- well ... let's see it. Upgrade your coach.

They aren't even willing to spend the money to get an AD, which is something they have to do before that person can be willing to spend the money to get a good coach....

I don't know where all this "they will spend money on athletics" came from. A bunch of hogwash from the conference trying to cover for adding a terrible team to the league. They have a large endowment. How that helps their basketball program, I have yet to find out. Rule of thumb: When an entity tells you they are willing to spend resources over years to upgrade, make them PROVE IT first. I will never understand why NOT adding a team wasn't considered. We would all be better off, including Loyola.

[Kung Wu]

They aren't even willing to spend the money to get an AD, which is something they have to do before that person can be willing to spend the money to get a good coach....

I don't know where all this "they will spend money on athletics" came from. A bunch of hogwash from the conference trying to cover for adding a terrible team to the league. They have a large endowment. How that helps their basketball program, I have yet to find out. Rule of thumb: When an entity tells you they are willing to spend resources over years to upgrade, make them PROVE IT first. I will never understand why NOT adding a team wasn't considered. We would all be better off, including Loyola.

Good point regarding the AD situation. That also delays pushing Porter out for obvious reasons.

They did spend some serious bucks on an arena renovation, so at least there's that. But if they don't get a new AD and ultimately a new head coach soon, they will miss out on the excellent recruiting opportunity that they just invested in.

[pinstripers]

Insane decision

[Cdizzle]

Good point regarding the AD situation. That also delays pushing Porter out for obvious reasons.

They did spend some serious bucks on an arena renovation, so at least there's that. But if they don't get a new AD and ultimately a new head coach soon, they will miss out on the excellent recruiting opportunity that they just invested in.

I spent big bucks renovating my living room so that tens of people could watch basketball games in comfort, but the conference didn't contact me about fielding a team for the league. I don't really see the difference. Other than I'm sure my concessions are better, and the attendance at my venue is higher.

[Play Angry]

The end of this season would be a great time to fire Porter assuming Doyle takes the year off. This seems like one of those rare occasions where the NCAA will permit a 6th year, which gives the new coach a few years to build around him and hopefully have some success by Doyle's senior campaign.

Of course, firing him after last year would have been even better.

[_kai_]

We all laugh at Chicago State, but when Missouri State joins the Big 12, we'll all be eating crow when Commissioner Kim Jong-Elgin goes to the Illinois well again and signs Chicago State as the next member of the illustrious, singular power-conference that is the Illindiana Valley Conference.

[RoyalShock]

Illindiana Valley Conference.

Say that outloud. It rolls of the tongue and is fun to say!

Illindiana . . . Illindiana . . . one more time . . .

[Anthroshock]

Say that outloud. It rolls of the tongue and is fun to say!

Illindiana . . . Illindiana . . . one more time . . .

Check out this guy! Someone started partying a little early for the WS game tonight.