Not looking good for Loyola

[blackandgold]

Milton Doyle is out with a labrum tear. Could be out 6-8 weeks or if he needs surgery, up to 8 months. Has he used a redshirt? Too bad, the guy is a player.

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/30500329-419/loyolas-milton-doyle-could-be-out-for-season-with-shoulder-injury.html#.VEGjPfnF_qI

[Shocker-maniac]

Unfortunate. Wish Doyle speedy recovery.

[wufan]

He red-shirted after transferring out of Kansas.

[wusphlash]

Will Porter Moser ever catch a break

[Dave Stalwart]

Milton Doyle is out with a labrum tear. Could be out 6-8 weeks or if he needs surgery, up to 8 months. Has he used a redshirt? Too bad, the guy is a player.
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/30500...l#.VEGjPfnF_qI

Well, so much for that. I sure hope he is somehow back in 6-8 weeks. That's still early enough to not waste one of his seasons. Poor guy. Can he maybe call Grant Gibbs and ask him about what to do?

[AndShock]

Will Porter Moser ever catch a break

This probably is a break for him. If Doyle is out the whole year, no chance they fire him.

[DUShock]

All the best to this young man.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Ugggghhhh.

And to think just how optimistic I was about the MVC 6-7 years ago. So sad. Now it is full of a bunch of teams that are one injury away from being Chicago State.

[jdmee]

Ugggghhhh.

And to think just how optimistic I was about the MVC 6-7 years ago. So sad. Now it is full of a bunch of teams that are one injury away from being Chicago State.

I'm just going to sit and wait for someone to go all JH4P on JH4P and give a bunch of statistical analysis of how these teams are still not a Chicago State.

[WuDrWu]

Today at least, the Valley has their alpha male and at least 4 teams with the potential, if not expectation, to be top 100 teams, or better. Every conference has their dogs. Right now that's Loyola, Bradley, and probably Drake although I think they might be a little better than most think. Indiana State kind of missed their chance during their uptick and now have to rebuild. SIU will be solid if unspectacular under Barry. ISUr has some athletes to compete at a high level, and Missouri State and UNI should both be nationally competitive. All things considered, the Valley has been in a lot worse shape before.

[ShockerFever]

I'm just going to sit and wait for someone to go all JH4P on JH4P and give a bunch of statistical analysis of how these teams are still not a Chicago State.

Classic!

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

The MVC had 4 teams outside the top 200 last year. From 2004-2007 they had 1 such team TOTAL. For the last decade, there had never been more than 2 MVC teams outside the top 200 in a single season.

jdmee, Fever... you might be "sitting around and waiting" for that statistical analyis for quite some time.

[Shockeriffic]

This could be a yearly topic. Things haven't looked good for Loyola since 1985.

[The Mad Hatter]

The MVC had 4 teams outside the top 200 last year. From 2004-2007 they had 1 such team TOTAL. For the last decade, there had never been more than 2 MVC teams outside the top 200 in a single season.

jdmee, Fever... you might be "sitting around and waiting" for that statistical analyis for quite some time.

While no one would argue that the MVC's quality has declined and that the bottom feeders have been particularly bad at times, there is little basis for the idea that the Valley as a whole is approaching Chicago State levels and what argument there is would be as much about Chicago State having an abnormally good year last year as it would be about the Valley having an abnormally bad year. Here are the rpi numbers from the past 3 seasons (excluding WSU):

	Chicago State	Loyola	DU	Mo. St.	UNI	Il. St.	In. St.	SIU	EU	BU
2013-14	260	292	179	93	112	133	73	201	210	264
2012-13	321	221	140	198	80	106	72	188	90	179
2011-12	337	310	142	127	72	99	137	256	143	268

In 2012-13, the only school within 100 rpi slots of Chicago State was Loyola (who wasn't even in the MVC at that point). In 2011-12 that number was at three (Loyola, SIU, and Bradley). As bad as last year was for the Valley, if Chicago State hadn't improved their rpi by over 60 slots, that number would have only returned to two teams being within 100 rpi slots (Loyola and Bradley).

Historically, Chicago State has been a 300+ rpi team. Even with the decline in the Valley, the only team flirting with 300 in the rpi is Loyola. Even if we consider Bradley and SIU as being in that category (which as bad as they have been is a hard sell with their best year in the past 3 seasons each being 70 slots better than Chicago State's best year and never finished within 30 slots of 300), those three teams represent the entirety of MVC teams that are even remotely comparable to Chicago State (and that does include some seasons with major injury or dismissal problems).

Evansville is the only other team to have a single 200+ rpi season, but that comes on a rebuilding year after a top 100 year and a top 150 year. Drake and Missouri State have more finishes in the top 150 (4) than outside it (2) including a top 100 finish. UNI, Illinois State, and Indiana State have not been outside of the top 150 in that timespan.

So if we want to say that the bottom three in the Valley are at risk of resembling Chicago State, especially if injuries play in, there is a case to be made (although I would contend that only Loyola really fits that bill). Even excluding WSU, however, that leaves 6 teams that clearly don't fit that profile, even if they don't resemble the Valley at the height of its power.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I admit that it seems a bit funny we are having such a detailed analysis of Chicago State, but since everyone seems to be so interested in breaking down my original statement I'll join in the fun.

would be as much about Chicago State having an abnormally good year last year as it would be about the Valley having an abnormally bad year.

Historically, Chicago State has been a 300+ rpi team.

Wrong and wrong. Last year was only Chicago State's 6th best season out of their last 10. Yes, an RPI of 260 was an improvement over the previous year, but they had been as high as 208 in '03-'04 and 213 in '06-'07 with multiple other top 250s in the last decade. Your statement about it being an "abnormally good year" is simply untrue. It was simply average compared to the rest of their last decade. Chicago State had a 3 year run of being 300+, but has generally been top 300 more often than not over the last decade. Yes, they pretty much always stink, but just how badly they stink is relevant to to the validity of those trying to pick apart my original statement.

The bottom half of the MVC, on the other hand, was indeed far and away the worst it had been in the last decade. You actually have to go back 15-20 years to find a comparably bad group of cellar dwellers. I realize this was an abnormally bad year and hope things get better this year. However, the trend of the MVC has been downward the last 10 years, and I don't see things getting much better anytime soon. Hate Creighton all you want, but you have to admit that trading them for Loyola was a really raw deal.

Summary:
-I think the MVC is really bad right now at the bottom. There is no question it was really bad last year.
-Chicago State is a team that fluctuates between 210-340. Averages about 275.
-I think there are a handful of MVC teams right now that are currently better than Chicago State, but only a single injury away from being in that general category.
-Maybe I shouldn't make comments about "garbage" teams as Fever and Doc are the true experts in that regard.