The Final Play

[ShockerExpress]

I am not one to beat a dead horse. And I am not at ALL disappointed in this season. Want to say that all off the bat. We played so wonderfully on Sunday, I thought we were clearly the better team, led more often, and deserved to win. But I rewatched the final 3 seconds of the game about 20 times (because I probably have mental problems) and honestly.. I feel sick to my stomach about it. I have read a ton of ShockerNet the past two days. I am 100% fine with the shot we got, and would probably take it again. But looking at the play.. it seems like we could have had something better...

1st.jpg

There is the set up before Cotton has the ball to inbound. (I am new at this inserting photo thing, so hopefully that comes up OK) Early is up top, VanVleet in the corner, Baker and Darius kind of jumbled up toward the FT line.

2nd.jpg

Here it is after a second or two. You can clearly see the options that Marshall talked about after the game trying to happen. Baker is trying to set a screen on Young, while Cle is cutting toward the basket. Marshall listed that as the 1st option of this play.

3rd.jpg

The picture above is what makes me kinda sick. Baker set the screen for Young, and Young and Harrison clearly get confused on who is supposed to pick up early. Harrison kind of shows, but doesn't really commit to guarding Early. And right where I took this screenshot (as shotty a picture it is) Cle has his entire momentum going toward the basket, and also has, what appears to be, almost two feet of separation between Harrison and himself. Maybe there is something I am not seeing... but it seems like if he had kept going, the lob would have been there!!! Of course no assurance the pass would be the best, or he would finish, it is a tough play. But boy... And it is more evident watching it live. I will try to find a YouTube clip I can post.. but it is clear that UK was going to let Early toward the basket pretty easily.


Early pops out however.. and for some reason I can't attach that photo.. I might try to in a post in response to this. But he comes to the far right wing, VanVleet pops out. And we know the rest.

Not a bad shot at all. But still.. watch it live. I WANT THE LOB.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24498316/kentucky-tops-wichita-state-in-a-game-that-exceeded-expectations

The video at the top of this article was the only highlight I could find that shows the whole play before the inbounds. Sorry, I am sure there is a better one there.

[ShockerExpress]

4th 1.jpg

There is Early popping out.

[1972Shocker]

Certainly nothing conclusive their. At that point a lob would appear to be extremely high risk. What looks like it could of been open would have been a hard jab step by Cle to the basket and then pop out to the three point line.

Coach Marshall has stated that one of the problems with the play is that Cle made his cut somewhat with less than full conviction.

I suggest you let it go. We got a very good look and shot from our best clutch player and the MVC Player of the Year. It just didn't work out this time.

I would take what we got anytime over what we may have or may not have gotten if we had tried to "force" it to Cle especially if he wasn't fully committed one way or the other. And as you know you only have 5 seconds to inbounds and can't hold it forever waiting for something to open up.

[RoyalShock]

Cle saw one of the Harrisons (#5) take a partial step back (as if he was going to switch), which caused him to jump out toward the wing instead of continuing on to the basket. Had Cotton made the lob pass it would have probably just sailed out of bounds.

[1972Shocker]

Cle saw one of the Harrisons (#5) take a partial step back (as if he was going to switch), which caused him to jump out toward the wing instead of continuing on to the basket. Had Cotton made the lob pass it would have probably just sailed out of bounds.

That's what I saw. But we don't really know what would have happened. What we know is we got a good lookk for a great clutch player. It just didn't go this time. Absolutely no second guessing or Monday morning coaching here.

[AndShock]

I was completely satisfied with the look we got, but part of me wishes Cle would've been the one attempting the 3 for the win. He was on fire all day long while Fred seemed to not be having his best shooting day.

[kstarheel]

Gregg said Cle didn't make a hard enough cut... it was based on something UK did prior to the timeout. I think Marshall thinks if Cle would have cut harder, it would have been a no brainer what to do. I just think Cle has to be THE option. I kept seeing Jordan vs the Cavs in '88? or '89... GET THAT BALL and KNOCK IT DOWN..... oh well. Amazing game.

[shocksrbest]

I thought Cle curling off the screen and heading toward the basket would have been open. But the timing and length of the pass would have had to be perfect. Anything less and Cauley-Stein could have taken 2 staps back and disrupted it, or one of the Harrison twins. I, too, liked the shot we took--a pretty good look...all things considered.

[1972Shocker]

I, too, liked the shot we took--a pretty good look...all things considered.

How many times do we look back at an end of the half play or an end of the game play and say "is that the best we could do, a desperation heave". The reason you have multiple options is because there is an opposing team on the court trying to take away what they perceive as your best options. Kentucky did not want either Cle or Ron beating them. I guarantee you they knew where Cle was. That's one of the reason Fred got such a good look.

[ShockerExpress]

How many times do we look back at an end of the half play or an end of the game play and say "is that the best we could do, a desperation heave". The reason you have multiple options is because there is an opposing team on the court trying to take away what they perceive as your best options. Kentucky did not want either Cle or Ron beating them. I guarantee you they knew where Cle was. That's one of the reason Fred got such a good look.

You could totally be right. But watching that live (I admit idk if the photos do my point justice) it definitely looks like he is not only going to beat everyone to the basket, but it looks like he could have a TON of separation. All his momentum is heading that way, and the other two guys are kind of caught just halfway looking at each other.

I know that he ended up cutting back and popping out.. but look at that third picture.. or watch the video.. what more of an open lane, with literally no one in the paint and two guys not facing the basket, and them not even chasing him, do you need to attempt that lob..? If you aren't going to try it then, why is that even an option?

I understand it would be a tough throw. Maybe an even tougher catch. But in my estimation, he would have had time to catch it down there with a poor throw and have a great look at scoring.

[ShockerExpress]

I suppose I just don't understand why Early didn't charge the basket. Still fine with the shot we got.. still MORE THAN fine with Cle's performance. Kid is an absolute stud. But figured this is what message boards are for. Stupid what ifs. And that looks like a big one to me.

[CBB_Fan]

The odds of making a last second basket are always very low, something like 20%. We got a good look for our best shooter. Early was hot, but having the hot hand is only worth a little. I believe we had used our last timeout before the play, while UK called had another timeout remaining (we almost certainly had a different play ready to begin with). I think the chance we got was good, given that we probably had a more preferable play the first time around, we couldn't afford a TO, and Van Vleet's shot was likely our best option.

Also, remember that many referees will freeze up on a foul call if a player gets hacked on the final play. It is just like a player taking a big shot; sometimes the moment can overwhelm the referees and make them afraid to make a call that could affect the outcome of the game. If we go for a dunk or an alley-oop and get fouled, the shot is probably not going in and we probably aren't getting free throws. Furthermore, a jump shot just inside the arc is not much more likely to go in a 3PT shot for most players and is more likely to get blocked. Our only player that shoots > 5% better from inside the arc than they do outside it is Ron, and UK was hounding him.

All that taken into consideration, I think an open 3PT shot was probably the best option available. 0% chance of a TO or no-call foul, open look, our best shooter. The odds of making the shot weren't good, but that is what happens when Kentucky makes 11 FTs in the last 4:52 seconds of the game. If they had done that for the rest of the game and taken no shots, they'd have scored 89 points just from FTs. The real questions should be how UK managed to get so many FTs in that time period, not whether or not we got the best shot on the last possession.

[1972Shocker]

You could totally be right. But watching that live (I admit idk if the photos do my point justice) it definitely looks like he is not only going to beat everyone to the basket, but it looks like he could have a TON of separation. All his momentum is heading that way, and the other two guys are kind of caught just halfway looking at each other.

I know that he ended up cutting back and popping out.. but look at that third picture.. or watch the video.. what more of an open lane, with literally no one in the paint and two guys not facing the basket, and them not even chasing him, do you need to attempt that lob..? If you aren't going to try it then, why is that even an option?

I understand it would be a tough throw. Maybe an even tougher catch. But in my estimation, he would have had time to catch it down there with a poor throw and have a great look at scoring.

I might remind you that we had a very well delivered Alley Oop to Cle earlier in the game that ended in an Oops. Don't torture yourself with what may have been. We have plenty of things to torture ourselves with dealing with what was.

I suspect Coach Marshall is second-guessing himself and perhaps the team on many fronts although this final play does not seem to be one of them.

[WillieJeffJeffries]

My preference.....no TO and just run the break w/o letting UK set their half court defense.....I don't know if a shot as good would of been open but the result wouldn't have been any worse

[AndShock]

My preference.....no TO and just run the break w/o letting UK set their half court defense.....I don't know if a shot as good would of been open but the result wouldn't have been any worse

Agree on this. I was pretty surprised they called a timeout.