The Valley Next Year

[ShockTalk]

A few thoughts about the relative "goodness" year over year of MVC teams:

1) Just because a team has a bunch of players back, doesn't always mean those players will be better or the team better the following season. Some coaches don't develop talent well; some players have a low ceiling. (Reference Mike Cohen years at WSU).

2) Some people seem to be discounting the impact Cleanthony Early has had on the Shocks success this season. Who wins the WSU vs. Loyola game if Early isn't in a WSU uniform? Cleanthony will be missed next season A LOT. He draws tons of attention from defenses and still runs a pretty good stat line most nights. There are good players in the program and coming in, but the combination of talents Cle possesses will be hard to replace.

3) The Shocks are one Evansville slip-up from being TIED with Indiana St. The Shocks sure aren't dominating them. Yes, WSU routed the Trees already, but the margin for error this season remains very, very slim.

I think the Shocks will be good next season. I think they will win the MVC. It is very hard to tell which teams will compete and which ones are doomed to continue to suck. There most certainly are not many players on other MVC teams who you think, "Wow, I can't wait to play those guys and watch him." Also, MVC teams rarely have multiple players who can hurt you in different ways, which is why many struggle. For example, make Lemon Jr. or Ballentine work hard and take a lot of shots to get their points and their teams aren’t good.

I’m not saying anyone is right or wrong in this discussion, just a few things to munch on.

Totally THIS

I'll add, in reference to #2 and Early.......Atwood or someone like him.

[MadaboutWu]

Not that it's needed, but JM4P, do you feel like running the numbers on Drake and SIU's margins in 08 and 04?

[MadaboutWu]

A few thoughts about the relative "goodness" year over year of MVC teams:

1) Just because a team has a bunch of players back, doesn't always mean those players will be better or the team better the following season. Some coaches don't develop talent well; some players have a low ceiling. (Reference Mike Cohen years at WSU).

2) Some people seem to be discounting the impact Cleanthony Early has had on the Shocks success this season. Who wins the WSU vs. Loyola game if Early isn't in a WSU uniform? Cleanthony will be missed next season A LOT. He draws tons of attention from defenses and still runs a pretty good stat line most nights. There are good players in the program and coming in, but the combination of talents Cle possesses will be hard to replace.

3) The Shocks are one Evansville slip-up from being TIED with Indiana St. The Shocks sure aren't dominating them. Yes, WSU routed the Trees already, but the margin for error this season remains very, very slim.

I think the Shocks will be good next season. I think they will win the MVC. It is very hard to tell which teams will compete and which ones are doomed to continue to suck. There most certainly are not many players on other MVC teams who you think, "Wow, I can't wait to play those guys and watch him." Also, MVC teams rarely have multiple players who can hurt you in different ways, which is why many struggle. For example, make Lemon Jr. or Ballentine work hard and take a lot of shots to get their points and their teams aren’t good.

I’m not saying anyone is right or wrong in this discussion, just a few things to munch on.

I agree with a lot of this. I think we will be down a bit next year (measured against an rpi of ~10 all season). Losing everyone at the 4-5 is going to hurt. I'm hoping for 20-25 in the rankings and peaking late.

However, imo we are dominating the Valley. So is ISUb though several of their wins have been close.

[RomeoCrennel's Belly]

All I know is that we better find a way to get out of the MVC and into a stable conference because if all of this NCAA paying college players stuff comes to a head and players from major conferences can get stipends we can kiss success goodbye and forget worrying about how crappy Evansville is. It really scares me. The Arkansas, Missouris, Kstates of the world will be able to snag every recruit ahead of us with the ability to offer some sort of stipend/payment.

Then of course there's the whole union thing starting up. Maybe a player will go to a team/conference that is able to survive a union. It'd be a nightmare if college football causes the death of non-BCS college basketball programs.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Not that it's needed, but JM4P, do you feel like running the numbers on Drake and SIU's margins in 08 and 04?

Including MVC Tournament Games...

2008 Drake
18 wins by average of 11 pts/gm
3 losses by average of 2 pts/gm

2004 SIU
18 wins by average of 11 pts/gm
2 losses by average of 2 pts/gm

Odd that they both came out with the same averages.

[ShockerFever]

Also, you might want to consider the fact that Marshall calls off the dogs far earlier than any of these other teams I imagine. Conservatively speaking, you could probably add another 5-10 points per margin of victory.

[pogo]

After last nights performances in the Valley I was wondering how likely it is that all of the other Valley schools wind up having to go to a tie breaker to determine who plays thursday. I have not made any comments about how weak it is but last night was horrible,

[Mr. Obvious]

Keeping its better players would help. I know their are more, but Rice leaving Drake and Nic Moore leaving Ill. St. was HUGE.

[RomeoCrennel's Belly]

Keeping its better players would help. I know their are more, but Rice leaving Drake and Nic Moore leaving Ill. St. was HUGE.

Even Jon Ekey. Who I'm surprised plays so much with Illinois. He's cost them a few games this season from what I have seen.

[WuDrWu]

I won't be surprised if Loyola doesn't return Milton Doyle next season.

Further, I will be STUNNED if he returns for his Junior season.

For the record, all I would like to see next year is a current winning streak of double digits on Dec 1, 2014.

[SHOXAAC]

I won't be surprised if Loyola doesn't return Milton Doyle next season.

Further, I will be STUNNED if he returns for his Junior season.

For the record, all I would like to see next year is a current winning streak of double digits on Dec 1, 2014.

He already sat out a year transferring from KU. What would be a possible path if not at Loyola?

[60Shock]

As a total conference, how does this year rank as far as being one of the weakest ever?

Of course, our being in the top 5 really throws a lot of confusion into the overall mix, but this league may struggle to even get one NIT bid.

[WuShock16]

He already sat out a year transferring from KU. What would be a possible path if not at Loyola?

I was wondering the same thing. If he did transfer, not only would it have to be a lower level, but I am not sure it could even be Division I. When Joe Mitchell transferred out of WSU after transferring out of Ohio after one summer there, I am pretty sure that he had to go non D-1...hence the move to Friends.

[moshock]

He already sat out a year transferring from KU. What would be a possible path if not at Loyola?

Juco as a sophomore - then back to D-1 ?

[Awesome Sauce Malone]

We're definitley dominating the valley this year. The w/l conference record between us and the trees is inconsequential.

True if ee lose and they win we would be tied. But theres no such thing as a 2 win game.