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Is Wichita State a championship caliber team?
It is around the time where the top teams generally start to separate themselves and title favorites start to emerge. I think the standard reaction across the country would be skeptical, and the standard reaction on this board would probably be positive. But there are objective measures to see if a team is really a title contender.
The first is simple. Going back to 2003, every champion finished the year with a top 20 ranking in both offense and defense (going by KenPom, which does not have data past 2003). This year the following teams are top 20 in both categories:
Arizona (7, 3)
Syracuse (6, 13)
Iowa (5, 19)
Michigan State (18, 17)
However, KenPom has enough variance that a team that is close to a balanced top rating could easily get up to top 20 in both categories. Here are the teams that are top 20 in one category and close in another:
Louisville (22, 8)
Wichita State (23, 10)
Kansas (8, 28)
Florida (29, 9)
Pittsburgh (10, 23)
Villanova (11, 26)
Kentucky (9, 31)
Oklahoma State (20, 34)
Iowa State (28, 20)
The next thing most champions do is shoot the 3. The mark is 37%. Going back to 2003 again, only Connecticut and Syracuse have won the championship shooting lower than 37%. Connecticut won shooting just 32.9%, and Syracuse shot just 34.4%. The reasoning behind the 3PT shooting is that a team that cannot shoot 3s well is vulnerable to an upset to a team that can pull a Creighton and shoot out of their minds for one game (though Creightons tend not to be able to win multiple games do to the first factor). Teams need to be consistent and strong against upsets to win six in a row. The following are the 3PT% marks for each team discussed above:
Qualify:
Michigan State - 38.6%
Iowa - 37.7%
Louisville - 37.5%
Oklahoma State - 37.5%
Close:
Arizona - 36.2%
Florida - 35.8%
Kansas - 35.5%
Pittsburgh - 35.3%
Syracuse - 35.0%
Iowa State - 35.0%
Far:
Villanova - 34.8%
Wichita State - 32.6%
Kentucky - 31.5%
The next category we'll look at is rebounding, specifically offensive rebounding. While champions have had varying degrees of success on the offensive boards, only Florida in 2006 won it all with an offensive rebounding rate of less than 37%. Again consistency is important, and offensive rebounds lower the margin of error and make misses less of a problem. Here are the offensive rebounding percentages of the teams in question:
Qualify:
Kentucky - 44.1%
Arizona - 40.6%
Syracuse - 39.7%
Iowa - 38.6%
Pittsburgh - 38.5%
Louisville - 38.0%
Close:
Florida - 36.9%
Kansas - 36.7%
Wichita State - 35.4%
Villanova - 34.7%
Far:
Michigan State - 32.7%
Oklahoma State - 30.4%
Iowa State - 26.8%
The next offensive must is a strong frountcourt scorer (over 6'8", 12+ PPG). Consistency again, as frontcourt scoring tends to be more reliable than backcourt scoring simply because 3s are the most random aspect of basketball. I'm not going to list the top frontcourt scorer for each school, but I will list the teams that qualify:
Arizona
Wichita State
Kansas
Syracuse
Kentucky
Louisville
Iowa
Pittsburgh
The final offensive variable is a lack of reliance on any one single scorer. Only Kemba Walker for Connecticut, Russ Smith for Louisville, and Carmelo Anthony for Syracuse won a title using 30% or more of their teams possessions. While some teams are close to reaching that mark, here are the teams that qualify:
Arizona
Syracuse
Iowa
Michigan State
Pittsburgh
Villanova
Kentucky
Oklahoma State
Iowa State
Wichita State
Florida
Kansas
Usually title teams have three players averaging over 10 PPG, often four. But I won't qualify that for time reasons. Instead, I'll move onto the other side of the game and talk about defense. The most important stat for a team looking to win six in a row and get a title is consistently defending inside the arc. Teams need to make sure that they maximize their margin of error if they want to win it all, and easy layups are never going to work well with that. The mark is 45%. Here are the stats for that:
Qualify:
Arizona - 40.2%
Florida - 41.2%
Michigan State - 41.5%
Kentucky - 42.0%
Oklahoma State - 42.7%
Louisville - 43.2%
Villanova - 43.2%
Kansas - 43.3%
Iowa - 43.5%
Iowa State - 44.5%
Pittsburgh - 44.5%
Wichita State -44.8%
Close:
Syracuse - 46.7%
Next up, free throws. This goes back to the margin of error argument. Letting opponents keep the score close with FTs means that the upset minded team needs less 3s and less randomness to win. The mark is 31%, but few teams have made that this year so I'll accept higher. Here are your numbers:
Qualifying:
Iowa State - 26.4%
Arizona - 32.1%
Iowa - 32.4%
Pittsburgh - 33.2%
Florida - 33.3%
Close:
Kentucky - 35.1%
Michigan State - 35.3%
Syracuse - 35.3%
Wichita State - 37.6%
Far:
Villanova - 39.1%
Louisville - 39.3%
Oklahoma State - 39.9%
Kansas - 45.0%
There are a few other factors. Champion winning teams need to win their conference, usually have a coach that has won at least at a Sweet 16 before, and have an All-America player on their roster. Most schools meet all the requirements, but I'll note the exceptions. The Iowa schools miss the coaching mark of a Sweet 16, and the conference champion mark right now with Michigan leading (same applies to Michigan State). Villanova, Pittsburgh, and the Iowa schools again miss the mark of an All-American player (going by the midseason awards). Kentucky and Florida are 50/50 on winning the SEC, and I'll put Syracuse as the favorite in the ACC.
Now we tally up the marks. I'll give 2 points for successfully qualifying for a criteria, 1 point for coming close. Anything without a solid stat is 2 or 0. Total, we come to:
Arizona - 19
Syracuse - 16
Wichita State - 16
Michigan State - 16
Kentucky - 16
Louisville - 15
Kansas - 14
Florida - 14Pittsburgh - 14
Villanova - 11
Oklahoma State - 11
Iowa State - 10
It should be no surprise that the undefeated teams have the marks of consistency that a title favorite usually has. Kentucky is surprising. But what this shows is that we do, in fact, have a shot at a title if we follow in the footsteps of past champions. The main black mark on our record is our 3PT shooting, but it is worth noting that what matters is what you do in the tournament. Connecticut won a title with lousy seasonal averages by starting the tournament hot, and we did something similar last year to get to a Final Four. One could speculate that our 3PT shooting could go up significantly if Tekele Cotton could regain his form or if we simply let Baker and Van Vleet take a much larger portion of those shots.
TL;DR: Yes, yes we are. No one is a perfect match for what historically makes a title team, but we are close on almost all accounts. I feel fairly confident with that list because it seems to confirm what I'd suspect: Kansas and Kentucky have the talent to compete, Arizona and Syracuse are #1 and #2, and the bottom three are pretenders right now.
The first is simple. Going back to 2003, every champion finished the year with a top 20 ranking in both offense and defense (going by KenPom, which does not have data past 2003). This year the following teams are top 20 in both categories:
Arizona (7, 3)
Syracuse (6, 13)
Iowa (5, 19)
Michigan State (18, 17)
However, KenPom has enough variance that a team that is close to a balanced top rating could easily get up to top 20 in both categories. Here are the teams that are top 20 in one category and close in another:
Louisville (22, 8)
Wichita State (23, 10)
Kansas (8, 28)
Florida (29, 9)
Pittsburgh (10, 23)
Villanova (11, 26)
Kentucky (9, 31)
Oklahoma State (20, 34)
Iowa State (28, 20)
The next thing most champions do is shoot the 3. The mark is 37%. Going back to 2003 again, only Connecticut and Syracuse have won the championship shooting lower than 37%. Connecticut won shooting just 32.9%, and Syracuse shot just 34.4%. The reasoning behind the 3PT shooting is that a team that cannot shoot 3s well is vulnerable to an upset to a team that can pull a Creighton and shoot out of their minds for one game (though Creightons tend not to be able to win multiple games do to the first factor). Teams need to be consistent and strong against upsets to win six in a row. The following are the 3PT% marks for each team discussed above:
Qualify:
Michigan State - 38.6%
Iowa - 37.7%
Louisville - 37.5%
Oklahoma State - 37.5%
Close:
Arizona - 36.2%
Florida - 35.8%
Kansas - 35.5%
Pittsburgh - 35.3%
Syracuse - 35.0%
Iowa State - 35.0%
Far:
Villanova - 34.8%
Wichita State - 32.6%
Kentucky - 31.5%
The next category we'll look at is rebounding, specifically offensive rebounding. While champions have had varying degrees of success on the offensive boards, only Florida in 2006 won it all with an offensive rebounding rate of less than 37%. Again consistency is important, and offensive rebounds lower the margin of error and make misses less of a problem. Here are the offensive rebounding percentages of the teams in question:
Qualify:
Kentucky - 44.1%
Arizona - 40.6%
Syracuse - 39.7%
Iowa - 38.6%
Pittsburgh - 38.5%
Louisville - 38.0%
Close:
Florida - 36.9%
Kansas - 36.7%
Wichita State - 35.4%
Villanova - 34.7%
Far:
Michigan State - 32.7%
Oklahoma State - 30.4%
Iowa State - 26.8%
The next offensive must is a strong frountcourt scorer (over 6'8", 12+ PPG). Consistency again, as frontcourt scoring tends to be more reliable than backcourt scoring simply because 3s are the most random aspect of basketball. I'm not going to list the top frontcourt scorer for each school, but I will list the teams that qualify:
Arizona
Wichita State
Kansas
Syracuse
Kentucky
Louisville
Iowa
Pittsburgh
The final offensive variable is a lack of reliance on any one single scorer. Only Kemba Walker for Connecticut, Russ Smith for Louisville, and Carmelo Anthony for Syracuse won a title using 30% or more of their teams possessions. While some teams are close to reaching that mark, here are the teams that qualify:
Arizona
Syracuse
Iowa
Michigan State
Pittsburgh
Villanova
Kentucky
Oklahoma State
Iowa State
Wichita State
Florida
Kansas
Usually title teams have three players averaging over 10 PPG, often four. But I won't qualify that for time reasons. Instead, I'll move onto the other side of the game and talk about defense. The most important stat for a team looking to win six in a row and get a title is consistently defending inside the arc. Teams need to make sure that they maximize their margin of error if they want to win it all, and easy layups are never going to work well with that. The mark is 45%. Here are the stats for that:
Qualify:
Arizona - 40.2%
Florida - 41.2%
Michigan State - 41.5%
Kentucky - 42.0%
Oklahoma State - 42.7%
Louisville - 43.2%
Villanova - 43.2%
Kansas - 43.3%
Iowa - 43.5%
Iowa State - 44.5%
Pittsburgh - 44.5%
Wichita State -44.8%
Close:
Syracuse - 46.7%
Next up, free throws. This goes back to the margin of error argument. Letting opponents keep the score close with FTs means that the upset minded team needs less 3s and less randomness to win. The mark is 31%, but few teams have made that this year so I'll accept higher. Here are your numbers:
Qualifying:
Iowa State - 26.4%
Arizona - 32.1%
Iowa - 32.4%
Pittsburgh - 33.2%
Florida - 33.3%
Close:
Kentucky - 35.1%
Michigan State - 35.3%
Syracuse - 35.3%
Wichita State - 37.6%
Far:
Villanova - 39.1%
Louisville - 39.3%
Oklahoma State - 39.9%
Kansas - 45.0%
There are a few other factors. Champion winning teams need to win their conference, usually have a coach that has won at least at a Sweet 16 before, and have an All-America player on their roster. Most schools meet all the requirements, but I'll note the exceptions. The Iowa schools miss the coaching mark of a Sweet 16, and the conference champion mark right now with Michigan leading (same applies to Michigan State). Villanova, Pittsburgh, and the Iowa schools again miss the mark of an All-American player (going by the midseason awards). Kentucky and Florida are 50/50 on winning the SEC, and I'll put Syracuse as the favorite in the ACC.
Now we tally up the marks. I'll give 2 points for successfully qualifying for a criteria, 1 point for coming close. Anything without a solid stat is 2 or 0. Total, we come to:
Arizona - 19
Syracuse - 16
Wichita State - 16
Michigan State - 16
Kentucky - 16
Louisville - 15
Kansas - 14
Florida - 14Pittsburgh - 14
Villanova - 11
Oklahoma State - 11
Iowa State - 10
It should be no surprise that the undefeated teams have the marks of consistency that a title favorite usually has. Kentucky is surprising. But what this shows is that we do, in fact, have a shot at a title if we follow in the footsteps of past champions. The main black mark on our record is our 3PT shooting, but it is worth noting that what matters is what you do in the tournament. Connecticut won a title with lousy seasonal averages by starting the tournament hot, and we did something similar last year to get to a Final Four. One could speculate that our 3PT shooting could go up significantly if Tekele Cotton could regain his form or if we simply let Baker and Van Vleet take a much larger portion of those shots.
TL;DR: Yes, yes we are. No one is a perfect match for what historically makes a title team, but we are close on almost all accounts. I feel fairly confident with that list because it seems to confirm what I'd suspect: Kansas and Kentucky have the talent to compete, Arizona and Syracuse are #1 and #2, and the bottom three are pretenders right now.
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