NCAA Seed Predictions Based On Final Record

[Rlh04d]

I don't think New Mexico last year is a good comparison. They finished with a top 50 SOS in both non-conf and overall. WSU will be outside the top 100 in both.

You really think WSU is going to be outside the top 100 in non-conference SOS? That seems wrong to me.

I'm not the expert, but RPIForecast.com has our expected non-conference SOS at 56 right now. You do this a lot more than me ... is there something better you're going off of?

[ShockerFever]

You really think WSU is going to be outside the top 100 in non-conference SOS? That seems wrong to me.

I'm not the expert, but RPIForecast.com has our expected non-conference SOS at 56 right now. You do this a lot more than me ... is there something better you're going off of?

Maybe Jamar is already hopping off the BYU train, which at its continued pace, will inch us close to that mark.

In all seriousness, I think our OOC SOS will be pretty solid and respectable. Probably Top 75 at worst.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

You really think WSU is going to be outside the top 100 in non-conference SOS? That seems wrong to me.

I'm not the expert, but RPIForecast.com has our expected non-conference SOS at 56 right now. You do this a lot more than me ... is there something better you're going off of?

I didn't research extensively, but kenpom.com shows WSU's non-conf SOS at 128 right now. I see that realtimerpi.com has then at 81 currently. I just now looked at rpiforecast.com and see that you are correct, it says 56. I wonder why all the variance? I know the rpi forecast site is predicting end of year numbers, but shouldn't 90% of non-conference games be played by now, meaning there wouldn't be much change over the next couple months?

[The Mad Hatter]

I didn't research extensively, but kenpom.com shows WSU's non-conf SOS at 128 right now. I see that realtimerpi.com has then at 81 currently. I just now looked at rpiforecast.com and see that you are correct, it says 56. I wonder why all the variance? I know the rpi forecast site is predicting end of year numbers, but shouldn't 90% of non-conference games be played by now, meaning there wouldn't be much change over the next couple months?

There wouldn't be much change in the overall conference RPI, since all wins would come at the expense of another conference member. Individual schools can still become much stronger, however. For example, if Davidson were to win their conference, they would contribute a much higher winning percentage to our SOS than they currently are.

[ShockTalk]

Isn't the teams one has played OOC and those teams RPI effected by who they will play in the future (conference play)?

Current OOC RPI is based only on who has already been played. If teams WSU has played, improve their RPI by playing better RPI opponents, can that raise the OOC RPI in the future?

[MadaboutWu]

Sure. And of course how much they win and lose too.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

As a simple basketball fan I lack your knowledge of all the basketball minutiae that the selection takes into consideration in their selection and seeding of the NCAA Tournament; in response to your questions please consider the following -

1. In assigning New Mexico a #3 seed they conveniently overlooked the fact that New Mexico was due an automatic bid by winning the third most difficult conference in the country with a record of 29-5; while assigning a #1 seed to Kansas with an identical record of 29-5 and winner of an inferior basketball conference. Then they assign a #1 seed to Indiana a team that failed to win their own conference with an inferior record of 27-6; and, then we have Gonzaga with all of the associated baggage of their weak schedule and winning a clearly inferior conference to the MWC. Finally, we have four teams from the big boy conferences with inferior records receiving the four #2 seeds.

2. Given all of the dissatisfaction expressed with Gonzaga receiving a #1 seed last year even though they had a 31-2 record and a history of playing in the tournament for a number of consecutive years, IMO the selection committee will be reluctant to grant a #1 or a #2 seed to the Shockers. IMO the fact that New Mexico received an automatic bid by winning the third most difficult conference with a record of 29-5 and was seeded #3 by the Selection Committee is predictive of the committee's seeding of the Shockers.

3. If the Shockers are undefeated going into the tournament, I think (hope) that the Shockers will receive the fourth #1 seed just as Gonzaga did. But I am pessimistic that even this scenario will unfold as IMO the Selection Committee will be inclined to assign the four #1 seeds to best teams from the Big 10, PAC 12, ACC and Big12/SEC (IMO that is how they play the game).

Just my opinion.

Fair enough. I won't try to dissect your comments, although I will say that I'm not too scared of the "dissatisaction with Gonzaga getting a #1 seed" effect on WSU this year. I think most of the backlash against Gonzaga was by random everyday goobers. Most people who care enough to look at seeding with any level of seriousness realize that top teams get upset sometimes, but it doesn't mean they didn't deserve to be given the seed they got. I hope I'm not wrong about this, but I just don't see it being much of an issue in the Selection Committee's minds.

[proshox]

Gary Parrish? I already know what was said.

Damn good segment... interesting to hear a different point of view on WSU over the years (a lot of historical stuff included in their conversation).

I do not disagree with Parrish's reasoning and still think this team is a piece or two away from being a legit top 10 team (Wiggins, Wessel, and one of the bigs must improve).

[Rlh04d]

I didn't research extensively, but kenpom.com shows WSU's non-conf SOS at 128 right now. I see that realtimerpi.com has then at 81 currently. I just now looked at rpiforecast.com and see that you are correct, it says 56. I wonder why all the variance? I know the rpi forecast site is predicting end of year numbers, but shouldn't 90% of non-conference games be played by now, meaning there wouldn't be much change over the next couple months?

I'm not sure. The RPIForecast difference obviously makes sense, as they're predicting what our SOS will be like after conference games have changed everything. But I don't understand the difference between RealtimeRPI and KenPom -- if those are both measuring current SOS, a 48 rank difference makes zero sense.