NCAA Seed Predictions Based On Final Record

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

It’s the end of 2013 and the Shockers are 13-0. Let’s have a little fun and predict their NCAA seed based on final record. With 31 games on the schedule before St. Louis, I’ll assume that they make the championship game of the MVC Tourney, meaning 34 games going into selection sunday.

JH4P’s Predictions:
34-0 – 1 seed
33-1 – 1 seed
32-2 – 3 seed
31-3 – 5 seed
30-4 – 6 seed
29-5 – 7 seed
28-6 – 8 seed
27-7 – 10 seed
26-8 – 12 seed
25-9 – NIT

[RomeoCrennel's Belly]

I was just thinking about this sort of thing. I came to the conclusion that if we lose 1 game we will be seeded as a two seed. Any more losses and we probably go to the 4-5 seed line. Wasn't New Mexico something like 30-2 last year and got a 3 seed or something? I could be way off base.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Not sure who you are thinking of Romeo. New Mexico was 29-6 last year and received a 3 seed.

[jocoshock]

I was just thinking about this sort of thing. I came to the conclusion that if we lose 1 game we will be seeded as a two seed. Any more losses and we probably go to the 4-5 seed line. Wasn't New Mexico something like 30-2 last year and got a 3 seed or something? I could be way off base.

If we perform well enough for a 1 or 2 seed, we have nothing to apologize for. If we get a 3-4, we have to nothing to complain about. All speculation at this point. Need to see where we are going into Selection Sunday.

New Mexico was 29-5 going into the tournament. Lost in the round of 64 to Harvard. They were a 3 seed losing to 14 seed Harvard.

[jocoshock]

CBS Podcast that covers the following questions:

• Is Wichita State's seed tied to Alabama, Tennessee and BYU?
• Should Gregg Marshall be rewarded for at least trying to schedule aggressively?

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24392023/eye-on-college-basketball-podcast-kentuckylouisville-fallout-and-more

Listening now..

Matt Norlander, Gary Parrish, and Jeff Borzello.

Starts at the 27 minute mark

[AndShock]

CBS Podcast that covers the following questions:

• Is Wichita State's seed tied to Alabama, Tennessee and BYU?
• Should Gregg Marshall be rewarded for at least trying to schedule aggressively?

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24392023/eye-on-college-basketball-podcast-kentuckylouisville-fallout-and-more

Listening now..

Matt Norlander, Gary Parrish, and Jeff Borzello.

Starts at the 27 minute mark

Gary Parrish? I already know what was said.

[Shocker1976]

[QUOTE=jocoshock;440247]If we perform well enough for a 1 or 2 seed, we have nothing to apologize for. If we get a 3-4, we have to nothing to complain about. All speculation at this point. Need to see where we are going into Selection Sunday.

New Mexico was 29-5 going into the tournament. Lost in the round of 64 to Harvard. They were a 3 seed losing to 14 seed Harvard.[/QUOTE

New Mexico's #3 seed in last year's bracket is instructive regards the Shockers "chances" of receiving a #3 seed or higher. New Mexico won the automatic bid for MWC but were seeded below Indiana, Duke and Georgetown; three teams in the tournament via at-large bids. Table below presents last years Top 3 Seeds (record and type bid received) in each Region.

Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Louisville (29-5) Automatic bid	Indiana (27-6 At large bid	Kansas (29-5) Automatic bid	Gonzaga (31-2) Automatic bid
2	Duke (27-5) At large bid	Miami (27-6) Automatic bid	Georgetown (25-6) At large bid	Ohio State (26-7) Automatic bid
3	Michigan State (25-8) At large bid	Marquette (28-8) At large bid	Florida (27-6) At large bid	New Mexco (29-5) Automatic bid

[jocoshock]

[QUOTE=Shocker1976;440267]

If we perform well enough for a 1 or 2 seed, we have nothing to apologize for. If we get a 3-4, we have to nothing to complain about. All speculation at this point. Need to see where we are going into Selection Sunday.

New Mexico was 29-5 going into the tournament. Lost in the round of 64 to Harvard. They were a 3 seed losing to 14 seed Harvard.[/QUOTE

New Mexico's #3 seed in last year's bracket is instructive regards the Shockers "chances" of receiving a #3 seed or higher. New Mexico won the automatic bid for MWC but were seeded below Indiana, Duke and Georgetown; three teams in the tournament via at-large bids. Table below presents last years Top 3 Seeds (record and type bid received) in each Region.

Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Louisville (29-5) Automatic bid	Indiana (27-6 At large bid	Kansas (29-5) Automatic bid	Gonzaga (31-2) Automatic bid
2	Duke (27-5) At large bid	Miami (27-6) Automatic bid	Georgetown (25-6) At large bid	Ohio State (26-7) Automatic bid
3	Michigan State (25-8) At large bid	Marquette (28-8) At large bid	Florida (27-6) At large bid	New Mexco (29-5) Automatic bid

And per Warren Nolan, the MWC was the #3 conference in America last year. MVC was #8.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2013/conferencerpi

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I don't think New Mexico last year is a good comparison. They finished with a top 50 SOS in both non-conf and overall. WSU will be outside the top 100 in both.

Gonzaga would be a better comparison, although still not great. They finished 32-3 and received a 1 seed, although their non-conf was more like what we hoped WSU's would be this year... much better than what WSU's actually turned out to be. That is why I think WSU can only afford 1 loss if they want to be a 1 seed.

[newshock1234]

I would rather have the best 2 seed than have the worst 1 seed

[MadaboutWu]

Don't see us losing 8 games and getting in. 7 seems on the bubble honestly.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I would rather have the best 2 seed than have the worst 1 seed

It makes almost zero difference either way, with one big exception... the first game. On average, 16 seeds are significantly easier than 15 seeds. Something like 30-50 spots in the RPI. Give me the 1 seed every single time please.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Don't see us losing 8 games and getting in. 7 seems on the bubble honestly.

I think 7 losses would likely be 12-6 in league play, co-champs of the regular season MVC, and a championship game loss in St. Louis. With our undefeated non-conf, I don't see that as a bubble team, regardless of how down the MVC might be this year. The MVC is still respectable... haven't fallen down to SWAC level just yet.

[jocoshock]

I don't think New Mexico last year is a good comparison. They finished with a top 50 SOS in both non-conf and overall. WSU will be outside the top 100 in both.

Gonzaga would be a better comparison, although still not great. They finished 32-3 and received a 1 seed, although their non-conf was more like what we hoped WSU's would be this year... much better than what WSU's actually turned out to be. That is why I think WSU can only afford 1 loss if they want to be a 1 seed.

Agree. Even Gonzaga's overall record against their competition will be far better than ours will be at the end of the season.

Record vs. RPI/NPI Teams
RPI NPI
1-50 6 - 3 8 - 2
51-100 6 - 0 5 - 1
101-200 9 - 0 8 - 0
201+ 10 - 0 10 - 0

[MadaboutWu]

I think 7 losses would likely be 12-6 in league play, co-champs of the regular season MVC, and a championship game loss in St. Louis. With our undefeated non-conf, I don't see that as a bubble team, regardless of how down the MVC might be this year. The MVC is still respectable... haven't fallen down to SWAC level just yet.

Fair enough, but I would still say on the right side of the bubble. And I definitely see 11-7 for 2nd/3rd in the league and losing in the championship on the outside.

Agree with all the other lines give or take.