Wichita State's Opponent RPI and Record

[EB 22]

Updated. WSU making a big jump meanwhile a certain former MVC member takes a hard fall. I won't name names, that wouldn't be nice.

[jocoshock]

Interesting analysis of Tennessee from Seth Davis after their appearance in the Battle for Atlantis Tournament this past weekend.

Tennessee (Fifth place: lost to UTEP 78-70; beat Xavier 64-49; beat Wake Forest 82-63)

The good: I keep hearing how "talented" the Volunteers are, and they do have good players. In the end, though, this team is not going to get very far by being prettier than their opponents. It needs to be tougher, and you could see that identity being forged last week. The Vols did a good job playing through their two beasts on the block, 6-8 junior forward Jarnell Stokes (54 points, 34 rebounds, 60 percent field goals in three games) and 6-8 senior forward Jeronne Maymon (32 points, 20 rebounds, 61 percent shooting). Maymon even added eight assists -- all the more reason why Tennessee needs to run its offense through the post. "We call ourselves a 'tougher breed.' That's how we have to play and compete," coach Cuonzo Martin told me. "If we try to play any other way, we're not going to be very successful."

The bad: Tennessee has an awkward dynamic at point guard. Antonio Barton, the 6-2 senior who transferred in from Memphis, spent his previous three years playing shooting guard with some limited minutes as a backup point. He is a catch-and-shoot scorer, not a playmaking lead guard, and that is not what this team needs. Freshman Darius Thompson is more of a traditional point, but he is not ready to take over full-time. So Tennessee is a work in progress at the most important position on the floor.

The other issue for Tennessee at the Atlantis was outside shooting. The Vols were 3-for21 from three-point range in the loss to UTEP, 2-14 against Xavier and 4-11 vs. Wake Forest. Martin promised me that "we're a better three-point shooting team than we showed," but until we see evidence, the Vols can expect to see a lot of sagging defenses.

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/col...#ixzz2mLFpoyaJ

[shockmonster]

You can bet that they will toughen up when they play us. We will get their A game.

[shox1989]

What does that mean? How are we #1? Honest questions.

Click on the Nolan Power Index link! Right now he has WSU ranked #1 in his Nolan Power Index http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2014/npi

[Perezident]

This Nolan Power Index is a joke. Example: How does the team with the toughest SOS (Baylor), with 1 loss, rank below a handful of other teams with 1 loss and SOS rankings in the 200s?

Does anyone have any info on how this is formulated?

[EB 22]

Updated today.

Bradley taking a nose dive from 55 to 187. Evansville dropping from 65 to 144. Loyola improves from 288 to a whopping 277 (insert round of applause).

[rrshock]

Updated today.

Bradley taking a nose dive from 55 to 187. Evansville dropping from 65 to 144. Loyola improves from 288 to a whopping 277 (insert round of applause).

Holy crap! This league is getting worse by the day. I'm afraid the Shocks will have to run the table in order not to fall in the RPI. It will hurt enough just because they are playing these teams.

[RoyalShock]

And as a conference (though conference RPI isn't a great metric) the MVC dropped to 10th from either 7th or 8th, can't remember which. Just wait until Drake loses a game or two. I could easily see the MVC settling into 12th.

[rrshock]

And as a conference (though conference RPI isn't a great metric) the MVC dropped to 10th from either 7th or 8th, can't remember which. Just wait until Drake loses a game or two. I could easily see the MVC settling into 12th.

And this is a conference that has consistently been in the top 7 or 8. I think if the MVC is in the top 10 at the end, it will be extremely lucky. This conference is a POS.

[_kai_]

It's a POS but it's not like a surprise or anything. We replace a frequent top 25 team with a team that had the lowest RPI in the Summit, and we had lots of big talent graduate last year on other valley teams, and then add in the fiasco at Illy State, and it is a wonder we were in the top 10 rpi recently.

With Creighton, at least the turd got polished. Now we have turd slowly turning into petrified territory and becoming a fossil.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Straight from the rpiforecast.com website:

Final Record . Expected RPI . Probability
30-0 . . . . . . . 2.9 . . . . . . . 1.56%
29-1 . . . . . . . 4.6 . . . . . . . 8.22%
28-2 . . . . . . . 7.2 . . . . . .. 17.11%
27-3 . . . . . . . 10.7 . . . . .. 23.42%
26-4 . . . . . . . 15.3 . . . . .. 21.81%
25-5 . . . . . . . 21.3 . . . . .. 15.24%
24-6 . . . . . . . 27.8 . . . . . . 7.73%
23-7 . . . . . . . 35.8 . . . . . . 3.43%
22-8 . . . . . . . 45.4 . . . . . . 1.10%
21-9 . . . . . . . 55.6 . . . . . . 0.28%
20-10 . . . . . . 64.6 . . . . . . 0.08%
19-11 . . . . . . 72.0 . . . . . . 0.01%

Looks like even 5-6 losses would leave WSU with a very comfortable RPI in the 20s. This does not count the MVC tourney where I would expect that a championship loss would be a net neutral. Win it all and gain a little. Lose earlier and, well, let's hope that doesn't happen.

[WuShock16]

I get what you all are saying about the disconcerting drops in RPI, but at this still-early point in the RPI, you just have to take it with a grain of salt. Fair or not, the RPI should start taking true shape around late January once conference season gets into full swing.

[The Mad Hatter]

Straight from the rpiforecast.com website:

Final Record . Expected RPI . Probability
30-0 . . . . . . . 2.9 . . . . . . . 1.56%
29-1 . . . . . . . 4.6 . . . . . . . 8.22%
28-2 . . . . . . . 7.2 . . . . . .. 17.11%
27-3 . . . . . . . 10.7 . . . . .. 23.42%
26-4 . . . . . . . 15.3 . . . . .. 21.81%
25-5 . . . . . . . 21.3 . . . . .. 15.24%
24-6 . . . . . . . 27.8 . . . . . . 7.73%
23-7 . . . . . . . 35.8 . . . . . . 3.43%
22-8 . . . . . . . 45.4 . . . . . . 1.10%
21-9 . . . . . . . 55.6 . . . . . . 0.28%
20-10 . . . . . . 64.6 . . . . . . 0.08%
19-11 . . . . . . 72.0 . . . . . . 0.01%

Looks like even 5-6 losses would leave WSU with a very comfortable RPI in the 20s. This does not count the MVC tourney where I would expect that a championship loss would be a net neutral. Win it all and gain a little. Lose earlier and, well, let's hope that doesn't happen.

Actually with how RPI Forecast calculates things, those projections of expected RPI don't match up directly with final rank. In their projections, the current forecasted #1 team in RPI has a rank of 6.1, so those projections of mid-20s would actually probably be in the teens in finals ranking. They currently project us at 4 losses with that 15.3 number, but that is good for #8 in the overall rankings.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Mad Hatter, you are correct. KU currently leads the way with an expected RPI of 6.1 yet obviously by leading the way, they should be #1. Expected RPI is an average of 10,000 simulations, so an expected RPI of 1 would mean 1 in each of the 10,000 sims. (not going to happen) For the top 15-20 teams, this affects things a little. After that, the phenomenon just doesn't factor in much. Anyway, not sure if this is the right way to look at things, but as of today:

KU - 6.1 = #1
WSU - 14.8 = #8
UNC - 24.0 = #20

If that can be translated to into the forecast, we might see something like the following for WSU:

Final Record . Expected RPI . Probability
30-0 . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . . 1.56%
29-1 . . . . . . . 2 . . . . . . . 8.22%
28-2 . . . . . . . 3 . . . . . .. 17.11%
27-3 . . . . . . . 5 . . . . . .. 23.42%
26-4 . . . . . . . 8 . . . . . .. 21.81%
25-5 . . . . . . . 18 . . . . .. 15.24%
24-6 . . . . . . . 25 . . . . . . 7.73%
23-7 . . . . . . . 34 . . . . . . 3.43%
22-8 . . . . . . . 44 . . . . . . 1.10%
21-9 . . . . . . . 55 . . . . . . 0.28%
20-10 . . . . . . 65 . . . . . . 0.08%
19-11 . . . . . . 72 . . . . . . 0.01%

If I'm figuring things right, WSU should finish with a top 10 RPI if they can keep their losses to 4 or fewer. Amazing!

[ShockTalk]

I get what you all are saying about the disconcerting drops in RPI, but at this still-early point in the RPI, you just have to take it with a grain of salt. Fair or not, the RPI should start taking true shape around late January once conference season gets into full swing.

Short of a number of unexpected quality wins, the Valley's RPI has already started to take shape. rpiforecast.com has the MVC's winning % increasing slightly over the rest of the OOC schedule, but has the MVC dropping to 11th in RPI. Probably due to a slightly easier 2nd half of the OOC which may also decrease the number of quality games to get those upsets. Your assumption also would require Valley teams to not have any more the bad loses that they are currently having.