Concerns for Next Season

[Dan]

Lots of hype for the upcomig year, and deservedly so. We return a lot of talent and have a potential lottery pick on the team. That said, here are my concerns about the season:

1. Point Guard. Armstead had one of the best single seasons for a point guard at WSU. He was a leader, became a clutch shooter and was a strong penetrator, not to mention good defensively. Fred was a good backup but was painfully slow brining the ball upcourt at times. I think Fred will make a big leap forward but he has big shoes to fill. The backup point is still a question mark, but with Cotton, Baker and Bowles, it should be adequate.

2. Big men. Carl was not the biggest guy, but he was great at creating space and was money inside 3 feet. He was relentless on the boards and defense. EO may not have lived up to the hype, but he was a menace on defense and you can't teach 7 foot and athletic. We replace these guys with Carter, Lufile and Morris. Carter may end up having a better career than Carl, but it will take time to learn the system. Whether Lufile is ready for the spotlight is a huge question mark. This will be a year of learning and getting in shape for Shaq. He will probably have to play some, but I don't expect a lot.

I'm confident we'll have several guys with big years that were low key last year (Cotton + Baker and Wessel playing full seasons) and we almost always have a guy come out of nowhere (this could be Wiggins, Lufile, Green, a freshman). My optimism far outweighs my concerns, but the energy and leadership that our departed seniors provided can not be underestimated.

[choida]

you forgot Kadeem Coleby...

[The Mad Hatter]

You're forgetting Coleby in the big man mix, who is the best candidate to replace EO's shot blocking (plus be an upgrade on the offensive end).

[Dan]

Right, I feel much better already.

[SubGod22]

1. It's a valid concern. I have full faith in FVV and he was playing big minutes late in the season and in March. He's a leader and will be fine. The real question is Bowles. How ready is he and/or how long will it take to be able to give us a good 15-20 minutes a game when needed? The quicker he gets there the better we are as it'll allow Cotton and Baker to play on the wing where they're better suited and more valuable. With that said, both will be fine backing up FVV as much as needed and we have enough wing depth to compensate for any lost minutes there from those two.

2. I'm not overly concerned. Coleby and Carter will hopefully be the starting duo there for us and that's pretty solid. Lufile is the big question mark to me. I hope he's made progress and figured some things out and can give us a good 10-15 minutes as needed. I think Shaq is more ready than some think. Yes, he'll have his learning and college shape to get into, but I think he'll be the main reserve in the post this season and log more minutes than CJ. And I think we'll all be very fine with that. Shaq is a player.

[Rlh04d]

1. Point Guard. Armstead had one of the best single seasons for a point guard at WSU. He was a leader, became a clutch shooter and was a strong penetrator, not to mention good defensively. Fred was a good backup but was painfully slow brining the ball upcourt at times. I think Fred will make a big leap forward but he has big shoes to fill. The backup point is still a question mark, but with Cotton, Baker and Bowles, it should be adequate.

While I agree that Armstead was amazing last season, let's not gloss over things in retrospect too much. There was a pretty significant period during the conference schedule where people were demanding that FVV be moved over Armstead as the starter. Obviously Malcolm ended up proving the folly of that in the Final Four ... but he had his struggles as well. He was an incredible defender, great ball handler, and very good floor general, but he also had lots of mental lapses and was a streaky shooter. He'd force bad shots, dribble the ball of his foot, etc. Basically, I thought he tried to do too much on his own in response to the injuries and the effectiveness of the zone against us. I would LOVE to have him back this season, but I don't think we should just look at his Final Four performance and ignore any other troubles. It's easy to idealize a former player after a season like that to a point that makes any comparison unfair.

As for FVV, his improvement over the course of the season was amazing, and his shooting percentages were very close from 2 and better from 3 as a true freshman over Armstead as a 5th year senior. On a per minute basis, he had less turnovers, and he was a pretty effective defender as well (although obviously not at Armstead's level, particularly in steals; no one has ever been at that level before).

We're going to have growing pains with FVV at the point ... but we did with Malcolm as well. I wasn't worried about the position last season and I won't be this season.

[ShockTalk]

I will be pleasantly surprised if Carter starts at the 4 at the beginning of the season. That's not to say Cle won't see time at the 3, it is just that we are very deep and experienced at the 3 (Cotton, Wessel, Wiggins, plus Green) to start the season. Carter should end up being a 25-30 minute player at the 4, but Cle is still our best backup there.

[GoShockers89]

.

[SubGod22]

Ok. Some general numbers I'm throwing out to see what we have.

PG - FVV (25) - Baker (5) Bowles (10)
SG - Baker (20) - Cotton (20)
SF - Cle (20) - Baker (5) Wessel (15)
PF - Carter (25) - Cle (10) Lufile (5)
C - Coleby (25) - Shaq (15)

That would have us playing 10 and I'm not saying nobody else plays. This is just a general, spur of the moment thing with little thought put into it just to see names and numbers. This has Green, Holland and Wiggins left off. I doubt that neither Green or Wiggins play, but if I'm trying to give decent minutes to the biggest factors, this is what I came up with.

If I want to try to get 12 in, with Holland as a redshirt...

PG - FVV (25) - Bowles (10) Baker (5)
SG - Baker (20) - Cotton (17)
SF - Cle (20) - Wessel (10) Wiggins (10)
PF - Carter (25) - Cle (8) Lufile (7)
C - Coleby (25) - Shaq (15)

That didn't do much and I still forgot Green while trying to get Wiggins in. As far as wings go, Baker, Cle and Cotton are going to get 20+ minutes a game. Hopefully few of those will come from time spent at PG for Cotton/Baker. That's not leaving a lot of minutes for Wiggy or Green.

The scariest thing for me is Lufile not being able to give us minutes and forcing Cle to play more PF than SF. If that happens, more minutes open up for Wiggy/Green/Wessel on the wing. Needless to say, no matter what, we're good at the 2/3 spots. Lufile is my only real big question at this point.

My head hurts.

[jdshock]

Ok. Some general numbers I'm throwing out to see what we have.

PG - FVV (25) - Baker (5) Bowles (10)
SG - Baker (20) - Cotton (20)
SF - Cle (20) - Baker (5) Wessel (15)
PF - Carter (25) - Cle (10) Lufile (5)
C - Coleby (25) - Shaq (15)

That would have us playing 10 and I'm not saying nobody else plays. This is just a general, spur of the moment thing with little thought put into it just to see names and numbers. This has Green, Holland and Wiggins left off. I doubt that neither Green or Wiggins play, but if I'm trying to give decent minutes to the biggest factors, this is what I came up with.

If I want to try to get 12 in, with Holland as a redshirt...

PG - FVV (25) - Bowles (10) Baker (5)
SG - Baker (20) - Cotton (17)
SF - Cle (20) - Wessel (10) Wiggins (10)
PF - Carter (25) - Cle (8) Lufile (7)
C - Coleby (25) - Shaq (15)

That didn't do much and I still forgot Green while trying to get Wiggins in. As far as wings go, Baker, Cle and Cotton are going to get 20+ minutes a game. Hopefully few of those will come from time spent at PG for Cotton/Baker. That's not leaving a lot of minutes for Wiggy or Green.

The scariest thing for me is Lufile not being able to give us minutes and forcing Cle to play more PF than SF. If that happens, more minutes open up for Wiggy/Green/Wessel on the wing. Needless to say, no matter what, we're good at the 2/3 spots. Lufile is my only real big question at this point.

My head hurts.

I've been trying to think about minutes quite a bit as well. I know HCGM has mentioned wanting to put Cle at the 3 spot quite a bit more. It just seems absolutely crazy that we will be so deep that someone who started on the Final Four team might not start this year. I get that starting isn't all that relevant in total minute calculations, but it just seems wild to me.

Also, I really like those minute distributions. This year didn't the majority of the team average more than 10 minutes a game? But that was with three injuries. If we can get anywhere close to that equal of distribution without injuries, I will have no fear come conference play. Our guys should be able to run every team out of the gym twice a week without ever worrying about their stamina.

[WSUwatcher]

My head hurts.

And that's why Marshall gets paid the big bucks: he has to do all this for real, and (historically, at least) he DOES find a way to play 12.

[Rocky Mountain Shock]

FVV will make us all forget about Armstead. There may be some growing pains early in the season, but his ceiling will be much, much higher. I've heard Coleby will be a solid 5. I understand Carter is The Beast II. Cle is obviously one of the best players in the country. And no one can ignore Baker's clutch shooting, Cotton's defense, and Wessel's 3pt shooting and hustle. I'm not intentionally leaving out the rest of the team, who all could start on any other MVC squad. My only concern for next season is how do we spread the minutes around a group with this much talent?

I have no doubts Marshall will figure that out, and we are going to have the greatest season EVER in the history of the program.

[wu_shizzle]

My only concerns:

1: Defending opposing PG's, keeping them in front, not trying to pick their pocket as they drive past.

2: Offensive rebounding/Stick-backs outside of Kadeem Coleby.

[SubGod22]

My only concerns:

1: Defending opposing PG's, keeping them in front, not trying to pick their pocket as they drive past.

I'm not too worried. FVV wasn't bad and he's very smart.

2: Offensive rebounding/Stick-backs outside of Kadeem Coleby.

Carter, Early, Baker, Cotton, Wessel... I'm definitely not worried about this. Our guards/wings rebound very well on the offensive end. And most of these guys aren't affraid to mix it up and put their body on the line for any and every loose ball.

[im4wsu]

While I agree that Armstead was amazing last season, let's not gloss over things in retrospect too much. There was a pretty significant period during the conference schedule where people were demanding that FVV be moved over Armstead as the starter. Obviously Malcolm ended up proving the folly of that in the Final Four ... but he had his struggles as well. He was an incredible defender, great ball handler, and very good floor general, but he also had lots of mental lapses and was a streaky shooter. He'd force bad shots, dribble the ball of his foot, etc. Basically, I thought he tried to do too much on his own in response to the injuries and the effectiveness of the zone against us. I would LOVE to have him back this season, but I don't think we should just look at his Final Four performance and ignore any other troubles. It's easy to idealize a former player after a season like that to a point that makes any comparison unfair.

As for FVV, his improvement over the course of the season was amazing, and his shooting percentages were very close from 2 and better from 3 as a true freshman over Armstead as a 5th year senior. On a per minute basis, he had less turnovers, and he was a pretty effective defender as well (although obviously not at Armstead's level, particularly in steals; no one has ever been at that level before).

We're going to have growing pains with FVV at the point ... but we did with Malcolm as well. I wasn't worried about the position last season and I won't be this season.

Although Armstead was a senior, he sat on the bench the preceding season. It seems that all too often players who sat the previous season have a "slump period" during the course of the season. Freshmen, especially, come out firing and then "hit the wall," and performance (at least statistically) falls somewhat. Even more so, the mental mistakes seem more prominent.

I think this may have happened to some degree with Malc as well as the "trying to do to much himself." Some of his obvious blunders could be attributed to either or both of these scenarios.